Posted by JML755 on August 09, 2009 at 18:42:08 from (74.199.80.47):
tlak,
OK,
The target was to sell about 225,000 cars under CFC. Assume that both the clunker and new car were driven about 20,000 miles/year. Assume that the average clunker was getting 17 mpg and that the avg replacement will get 25 mpg. Both sets of cars would be driven about 4.5 billion miles per year. At 17 mpg, the clunkers would use about 265,000,000 gallons or 6,300,000 BARRELS of oil in a Year (42 gals/barrel). The new cars would use 180,000,000 gallons or 4,285,000 BARRELS in a Year. The savings would be 85,000,000 gallons or 2,025,000 BARRELS in a YEAR. The latest posted data shows DAILY motor vehicle usage of oil at almost 9,000,000 BARRELS a DAY for 2008.
So the projected savings in a YEAR is less than a quarter of our DAILY usage??? Somebody please check my math. Am I wrong?
If I'm not, then we we could have bought 14,000,000 barrels of oil (at $70/barrel) with our billion dollars which would be enough to fuel those clunkers for 2 years.
Now, assuming that Joe Blow has a nice new car, there is a good chance he'll drive it MORE than the clunker, which means there is a good chance overall oil consumption will go UP.
Again, can't prove anything, but I can guarantee that the spin doctors in DC will never allow any statistical analysis or studies done that would show anything but the program was a success.
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