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Re: A little discouraged today but I値l get over it lol


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Posted by JD Seller on December 29, 2018 at 20:39:27 from (208.126.198.213):

In Reply to: Re: A little discouraged today but I値l get over it lol posted by philip d on December 29, 2018 at 19:27:12:

Philip I am going to say some things that may make you mad but think about them please.

Farming is one of the best life styles there is, period. It is also a very hard business to make a living in. Low profit margins have been a fact of life in farming for centuries. There are short term HIGHs but they usually are followed by steep drops.

Now the part that is tough. You need to look at the realistic value and return your current farming operation is producing. IF your like the majority of smaller dairy farmers your either breaking even or losing money. Then add in the fact your working a lot of hours to do this. So your stressed in many ways. Long work hours and financial worrying are two huge ones. So you need to stop the runaway train NOW not six months from now.

Also what your farm production costs means nothing at this time. You milk check is not going to cover the bills. So more months of milking does not make it any better. Also the value of replacement heifers is down right now. That MAY cycle up but I do not see a major increase on the horizon. Especially in your Canadian market. The dairy industry in Canada is getting slammed down to almost the US levels all at once. With the new trade agreement I do not see it reversing anytime soon. So I think it will get worse for the smaller diary farms in Canada as time goes by. I would sell the cattle/heifers NOW before they go lower. Your robots should have value now but in a year they may not. Robots are just a stop gap measure for smaller dairy farms in my opinion. The larger operations can squeeze a profit out of their volume easier than the smaller diaries will. They are not using robots in very big numbers. A 800 cow dairy is not going to use 15 robots. They will hire 10 low wage parlor workers. In the US they will more than likely be Mexicans. So save what value you can out of your assets NOW.

For the future you talked about feeding cattle and such. You can generate a profit doing that with much less labor. It will not be huge profit but still a profit. If you have crop land you can utilize it in ways to support the feeding operation and still have excess to turn to cash crops. The hard part is a part time or even a full time job is more than likely in your future.

Here is some thing former dairy guys find out real fast. Not being tied down like you have been in the dairy business is liberating. Heck a 40 hour a week job seems like a vacation. LOL also just resolving the financial issues good or bad, will make your life less stressed, it is a relief. It will greatly reduce the mental stress.

Your not the only dairy farmer facing this. I really think that the 90% of the smaller dairy farmers will be out of business in the next ten years. The industry has already changed. It is just taking time for the financial reality to hit each operator.


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