Through out history it's the "current/changes in technology" that makes things obsolete so I don't think the question will be so much how long will the tractor, as a whole, last. Instead I think the two main questions are, will the technology that makes the tractor work still exist, and will any other propriatery part still exist. With engine controls changing every year or two to meet the latest EPA Tier level, and then the transmissions and hydraulics being tied in electronically to maked sure the engine always runs at the optimal speed and load for reduced emissions...........multiply this basic train of thought by the number of different equipment mfgs, each with their own designs, the mid year changes they make, the interum EPA Tier levels, etc, etc, and you begin to get the picture of just how technical new machines are.
Most older machines simply took existing technology and made slight improvments to basic parts over time, not on a daily basis, so the changing technology was kept somewhat under control. Too many items used were "off the shelf" parts made by one mfg "for the masses" so what went in brand A might also be in brands C, E, and G. Doing it this way if the OEM for the assembly (tractor) went out of business the individual components were still available from their actual mfg, not just from the mfg that assembled them. It's rarely that way nowdays as each mfg has their own propriatory designs custom made for them and when they decide or are forced (by the EPA) to stop making parts them your out of luck. By technology taking a little extra time to come about there was also time for the parts to get "copied" and aftermarket stuff put in place, just in case. Unlike all the automotive aftermarket 'chips' etc we encounter, nowdays it's all but impossible, if not illegal, for an aftermarket company to produce the software needed to control the new machines (and that only if they could get the propriatory info from the OEM to start with), not to mention having the money to invest in the reverse engineering required to make ten million different parts for ten million different machines.....again if they could get the OEM to let go of the specs or authorize it....
So, basically I think the machines themselves will be probably just be sitting everywhere...if they don't rust out first... but will just be dead because the computer technology will be outdated, the wiring will be shorted and burnt, that one .50 propriatory part is no longer available, or something along those lines.
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Today's Featured Article - History of the Nuffield Tractor - by Anthony West. The Nuffield tractor story started in early 1945. The British government still reeling from the effects of the war on the economy, approached the Nuffield organization to see if they would design and build an "ALL NEW" British built wheeled tractor, suitable for both British and world farming.
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