Will Our New Tractors Last??

Will our new tractors last as long as their predecessors? Will we still be using our 2009 XYZ tractor in the year 2050 or will they become throw a way‘s in a few short decades not unlike most of our consumer goods are being built today…and we take for granted?

My neighbor recently bought a well kept early 60’s Oliver with 100% verified original, albeit faded paint that has hardly any rust. Granted it has rust where it was scraped or dented over the years but for the most part it looks great for being 45+ years old. The only other items on the Oliver that were changed over the years was a new clutch, muffler, carburetor and tires. The engine has never been apart.

Meanwhile, my well kept 2006 TC45A stays in a heated/AC equipped garage and there is still minor rust popping out here and there, hood weatherstrip is coming loose and the plastic fender have a hairline crack near the mounting point. ..all with less than 100 hours on the meter.

Lest you think I’m picking on NH blue I’m not. I love my tractor. “Disposables” come in all colors. A friend of the family owns a small construction business. The housing boom of 2002-2005 enabled him to trade in the old tried and true Ford bucket/backhoe on a shiny new comparable orange Kubota. Jim takes care of his equipment but in talking with him and explaining some of it’s recent problems, he does not think his Kubota will last as long as the old Ford Industrial.

Will all the plastic, electronic gizmos and cheap, save a nickle metallurgy be the death knell for the modern tractor?

Death Knell? No.

Will people 50 years from now be restoring that "rare factory demonstrator" CaseBotaNewFiat? Nope, cuz ya can't throw a hunk of iron on a lathe and turn ya out a new Master Control Computer that has been NLA for 30 years.

It's about maximum profit with minimum investment, engineering everything to minimum acceptable strength to save a half-ounce of material and Planned Obsolescence. 99.99% of companies today are focused on the bottom line and "growth" to keep the stockholders happy and could give a rat's derriere about quality or longevity.

And the Piper is about to be paid...

Older stuff was built heavier and was just made to last, it seems. Plus, when it comes to working on it, I can tinker with my old AC WD anytime, but when it comes to my car... It's not so straightforward.

Can't remember the exact details and figures but on another site a poster has a approx 15 year old compact tractor with a bad transmisson shaft. Can no longer buy the shaft by itself-you have to buy the whole tranny at $5-6k.

A bunch of these tractors will end up in the boneyards all with the same part failures or missing parts.

They will last about as long as a new car or pickup does nowdays. But 100 years from now somebody will probably still be brushogging with my old Ford 9n or my dads Farmalls.

When electronics go bad, it is usually a nightmare, and an expensive one at that.

the sad thing today is all manufactures today manufacture what they want you to have, in the old days they manufactured what you wanted to have.. the r+d is done by the purchasers today, manufacturers today cobble something together and the public is left to iron out the kinks al

My parents have an old video that was put out by the John Deere 2cyl club. It was a documentary of the first international expo they held back in the late 1980's. They interviewed one old timer (who has probably passed on by now) who was talking about how great the old Deere's were and how he didn't think the ones they were making today would be in restorable condition even 20 year later.

It's now more than 20 years later and the story remains the same. Tractors that were new 20 years ago are still in use and people still think the new ones aren't as good.

For most of us, our fathers (or grandfathers) all worked with horses. To them a Farmall H was complicated and wouldn't ever hold up to decades of use.

While a computer module is more complicated to most of us than a carburator, to the next generation of mechanics this will be normal. 50 years from now they will be looking back, commenting on how the new tractors aren't as good as the ones they used to work on...

I think it depends. A lot of the new stuff has the hours thrown at it to make the payments and are plain worn out before becoming obsolete. You don't see a lot of antiques with 20-30,000 hours on them.

I think the bigger problem is there are so many different models, it will be impossible to find parts both new and used once the bulk of them are out of field work. The oldies were churned out with tens of thousands almost the same for decades. Now they change every 5 years with smaller production numbers spread all over the world.

I'll say a Kubota hoe is nice, but it is not a commercial TLB so it will never last as long as one. If its an L35 or 39, it has a computer on it for the transmission. The L48 doesn't have any computer. Even now, the glide shift (PS) kubotas were the only ones with a computer. The digital dash doesn't run anything, its just a fancy hourmeter.

YOU are So right ,And, I AM SORRY that the modern age has put so much stock in these garbage computors ,, I use that comparison ALL the time ,... How come a computor is junk after 5 Yrs and My DC CASE is still plugging along doing chores and tuf jobs after 60 years with no major problems ,, SO?. Is this Really Progress when You make somthin' so confusing that a fella used to making simple lasting repairs on his old Iron ,, Can only Throw up his hands in Disgust when a computor glitch happens ..

in a word...NO. todays electronics will not be on the market even a decade from now. the market changes too fast. without certain electronic componets y r dead in the water, unless ya find a way to bypass it.

I agree with Hay- the electronics are the key, but also, no one reproducing the plastic parts, either, and they can't be "fabbed" like steel and iron. They're throw-aways, just like modern cars.

A friend just bought a new Toyota- salesman bragged that it had 27 computers on board. Friend said, "You're bragging about THAT? I keep my cars for 10 to 20 years- you still going to have all those computers available for that long?" Guy didn't venture an answer.

Agreed.

I remember looking at the digital readout for exhaust gast temp, RPM, and tractor speed on the 1486 we bought in 1980 and thought "That **** will never last". After a season or two the dirt will ruin it. It will never be around in twenty years like our old 560.

29 years later I sat in the cab of that very same tractor with 22,000+ hours on it (BIL owns it now) and it still works good has his primary field tractor - even though the company that built it has disappeared. But then the 560 is still in the field too.

I think you are too gloomy. I was surprised a few years ago, met a young German guy, really good machinist. He made the comment that he had never worked on a machine with handles. Everything he has ever done has been on a cnc machine. I think the younger generation is going to rise to the challenge, fixing stuff we can't.

"in a word...NO. todays electronics will not be on the market even a decade from now. the market changes too fast. without certain electronic componets y r dead in the water, unless ya find a way to bypass it."


I think a decade is short. If they are not available OEM some enterprising person will burn new chips and computers. 40-50 years from now? Maybe a different story. Heck, diesel may not be available then.

I remember the old coots crying the blues saying the 3020/4020 could never replace or outlast the 60/620/630/70/720/730/80/820/830.
Today's old coots are calling the 3020/4020 the greatest tractors ever built.

As for electrics/electronics, they are no more complicated, new and misunderstood than the internal combustion engine when introduced.
It's just that people who don't know or understand. Electricity,electronics, computers, chemistry, physics. They find a reason to dislike and avoid them rather than admit they don't understand, feel frustrated and embarrassed.
It's just human nature. If the old stuff was so good. Tear out your home's indoor plumbing and electricity. Avoid modern medicine and use horses for transportation.

I agree about the electronics issue being in the automated industry for many years I have a lot of machines in my factory now that have NLA control systems that we have to upgrade. Sooo you may see in the future a tractor at the latest farm show setting in a dealers back lot with weeds growing up around it because a module is bad and the replacement is NLA mechanically it may be fine so my suggestion would be to make sure your grandkids and great grandkids do the schooling to get them a bargain in the future.It's not rocket science. After all we caused this issue because we all wanted a tractor that we just wanted to jump into and adjust the radio and A/C then drive it and get out and go the house we couldn't just follow a row marker so we needed a GPS we couldn't just operate a hyd lever and steer the combine we needed auto control so we can talk on the cell phone and work the laptop. It all comes with a price.CT

The old tractors sure were built well. But quite a few factors came into play regarding their long life.

I'll use my 1944 John Deere Model A for example.

1) When purchased it was a 29 pto hp tractor. Probably the main tractor on the farm and as such the primary tillage tractor. At that time farms were rapidly getting larger and each year manufacturers kept boosting the horsepower. More than likely within a few years probably no more than 10, it was replaced by a larger tractor. While it continued to be used it did not get worked as hard as it would have as the primary tillage tractor.

2) New features were being added by each manufacturer. Electric start, better seats, 3 pt hitch, live hydraulics (heck the 44 A does not have hydraulics at all...) powerand live pto. These advances and more pushed my tractor to the back of the barn. It was probably used less and less often and on lighter work when it was used.

Again, they were well built and often well maintained, but they did not hold up under 60+ years of hard work.

Cheap back then, like john deeres and farmalls, didn't mean they were junk.(I have farmalls and they were the cheaper tractors of their time)Cheap then was still good qaulity. It may not have had all of the bells and whistles. Now cheap is just garbage. Stuff breaks and you need to call in the geek sqaud to come reprogram your computer. Im only 19 and I don't like where the future is going.

Think you got it Ken. If you're only putting 30-40 hours a year on a tractor, underuse is the problem. I just retired a 13 year old JD 6400 with 18,000 hours on it. Didn't owe me a dime, and most of the old "classics" didn't do nearly as much work in 30 or 40 years. My 02 7510 has 7000 hours on it. The "new" 6420 is at 2700 hours now at 25 months old.

I think the new tractors will last as long as the old ones. I would say that hour wise they will last longer.New tractors aren't the same as new cars and trucks which are built to last 5 years. How many 1950's tractors do you see with 20000 hours on them? the paint may also be different on the new ones but for the most part it's just as good. I have seen lots of older tractors with completely rusted panels. It all depends how long it was in the sunlight and how often it got rained on.

i do agree that computer modules and such seem to be the death of alot of modern equipment, but at the same time i think it wont be long before alot more aftermarket computer type stuff will be available aftermarket or able to retrofit "generic" modules. as others have said todays generation, i guess my generation since im 26, are playing with chips and software stuff in newer cars already to soup them up. however alot of them dont have a clue when it comes to pulling a tranny or simular! as for plastic parts breaking, yea thats a pain but alot of stuff ya can make outa plastic or metal to replace it

Others have brought up some good points. Today's 40 horse tractor is not the same animal as it was 50 years ago. A 40 hp now is not really made to be a farm tractor, not many folks who buy a new boomer now are planning on make'n their live'n on it, it's a play pretty most of the time. Hour wise, I think many will last longer. Most of the gassers from 50 years ago you had to figure on a rebuild after 4 or 5k hours, now many are not broke in good till over that. If some one were to buy a tractor now and put 100 hours a year on it, it very well could be running in 50 years I just don't think it will be totaly original. With the way technology is changing, the state of the art high tech gizmos on todays tractors will change from year to year and will not be servicable in 10 years. All the tractors and equipment I have been around made the last 15 years, the electronics are the weak spot. I used to work for Tyson running a Lewis-Mola poultry harvester. They were powered by 70 some odd horse Kubotas turning a big hydrolic system. The engines were tougher than any engine that size I have ever been around on the farm, they took abuse that would kill most any tractor engine. (Try running a 30 year old tractor all day every day for a week in a chicken house with out an air filter in it and see how far you get) One main problem with was the hydrolic solenoids that ran every thing, they were a constant change out and throw away part and after 4 years they were getting hard to find cause they were out dated. Tractors will be the same way, alot of the do-dads will get yanked off and re-engineered to work around electronics and safty switches that cause problems.

Dave

I agree with Spook, kids nowdays build electronic gizmos as quick as I grabed a welder or Grandad took to baleing wire. It's just the fear of the unknown. Tires for my 50 HP tractor cost more than my dads farmall A.

The question isn't will the newer tractors last
as long. But, can we people that restore and use
older tractors afford to restore a 50 year old
250+ horsepower tractor. I just restored an
Oliver 770. The money I have in it could not
buy one quadratrac for my neighbors Case.

Old iron will still be around, but electronics of today's tractors will be their downfall. I'll keep my old 60 thank you!

The plastic and electronic parts will ge obsolete and not obtainable in not too many years.

More and more things are becomnig obsolete quicker in recent years.

Sears used to provide all parts for their stuff. Now it is a lot of not available for parts on their site.

I'm surprised at the negative comments about cars and trucks. I remember working for a gent with a "52 Olds with 70,000 miles on it, and everyone called him a liar because he said he hadn't had an engine overhaul. I drove a '49 Ford pickup ( which I dearly loved) but now have 3 Ford trucks, one of which has 255,000 miles on it (yes, it uses oil), none of which are so inferior as my old '49. I don't believe the tractors of the 40's and 50's could hold a candle to the ones today....and next year they will be better and more reliable!
(I am OLD and grew up farming, milking, scooping manure and separating cream and cleaning eggs with light sandpaper because they were 10 cents more when clean)

Through out history it's the "current/changes in technology" that makes things obsolete so I don't think the question will be so much how long will the tractor, as a whole, last. Instead I think the two main questions are, will the technology that makes the tractor work still exist, and will any other propriatery part still exist. With engine controls changing every year or two to meet the latest EPA Tier level, and then the transmissions and hydraulics being tied in electronically to maked sure the engine always runs at the optimal speed and load for reduced emissions...........multiply this basic train of thought by the number of different equipment mfgs, each with their own designs, the mid year changes they make, the interum EPA Tier levels, etc, etc, and you begin to get the picture of just how technical new machines are.

Most older machines simply took existing technology and made slight improvments to basic parts over time, not on a daily basis, so the changing technology was kept somewhat under control. Too many items used were "off the shelf" parts made by one mfg "for the masses" so what went in brand A might also be in brands C, E, and G. Doing it this way if the OEM for the assembly (tractor) went out of business the individual components were still available from their actual mfg, not just from the mfg that assembled them. It's rarely that way nowdays as each mfg has their own propriatory designs custom made for them and when they decide or are forced (by the EPA) to stop making parts them your out of luck. By technology taking a little extra time to come about there was also time for the parts to get "copied" and aftermarket stuff put in place, just in case. Unlike all the automotive aftermarket 'chips' etc we encounter, nowdays it's all but impossible, if not illegal, for an aftermarket company to produce the software needed to control the new machines (and that only if they could get the propriatory info from the OEM to start with), not to mention having the money to invest in the reverse engineering required to make ten million different parts for ten million different machines.....again if they could get the OEM to let go of the specs or authorize it....

So, basically I think the machines themselves will be probably just be sitting everywhere...if they don't rust out first... but will just be dead because the computer technology will be outdated, the wiring will be shorted and burnt, that one .50 propriatory part is no longer available, or something along those lines.

There seems to be alot of people think that the old 40-50 year old tractors never got that many hrs. There may be a few that didn't , but they were used to make a living with. A hour meter was used mainly for service, and they roll over at 9999 what makes you think that they haven't rolled over many times? There was a old mechanic(RETIRED) that worked for me at our dealership said that when they came in for a overhaul they also receieved a new hr meter and a paint job

While everyone is talking about electronics what about the the fuel?? Diesel as we know it may not even be around in 15-20 years as the emerging countries like China and India expand and demand is outstripping supply.

Will the old tractors be able to be retrofitted to the "new fuel"?? Or will they even run on fuel. The tractors of the future will probably have hi-tech solar panels on them as they move around the field.

Ever figure out how many square feet of solar panel would be required to put 100HP to the ground on a sunny day?

Quite a bit with todays technology. 15-20 years might have that problem solved. Battery technology will also be totally different 15-20 years from now.

I almost bought a tractor last winter that had a solar panel on it, it was a ford 8600. Guy only used it to bush hog 20 acres and left it setting outside year round. The battery was always dead when he went to use it so he rigged up a panel on the canopy to keep the battery charged.

Dave

The basic mechanics on new stuff is probably as good as ever but the supporting sensors,computers and the like will make them not Shade Tree Mechanic friendly which means they'll get scrapped

We run The heck out of em' before we went to nearly all No till in the late 70s .. shu7cks !Dads little 430 demonstrator was ran from oil change to Oilchange around the clock for serveral years in the spring time , back in those days it was common for Us to change oil 3 times a month on tractors that never really got a chance to cool down for sometimes 50 hours on a straight .. We listened to Earl Butz. and We thought it was Our Job to Feed the World,,, So fence row to fencerow we farmed the land..

so much plastic and fiberglass and electronics and sensors and computers these days.. I wonder if in 50ys you will be able to get parts.

I'm sure there will be many renewable antiques still running though.

I'm glad I have a realitively new (2000) NH 7610s tracor which is still a pretty much .. metal and iron tractor.. as in 50 ys.. I hope to still have it going.

soundguy