Your numbers look very accurate to me Gary. I don't know why some farmers say they always lose money. I do, however, know why we couldn't (or maybe wouldn't) pay that much for rent. To assure $5 per bushel you would need to contract 150 bpa right now. That sounds like risky buisness to me. I would not recommend forward contracting more than half of your projected yield to anyone. I've seen guys get in big trouble this way. I doubt we're looking at 300 bpa ground. We had a terrible hot dry summer here last year. Corn was half a crop. Say this is 200 bpa ground. Grower forward contracts 100 bpa for $5. Has a bad year. Corn does 150. Price at harvest is $4 per bushel. He ends up losing $50 per acre, if he sells remaining grain at harvest. He could play the market and recoup, or lose even more. If he had 75% APH coverage (which would be costly and not figured into inputs in this scenario) he wouldn't get a dime from the insurance man. Sounds like a lot of money for grain farming. Maybe he is a vegetable grower or perhaps need manure rights.
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