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Energy price duration?

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Spook

05-08-2008 14:35:40

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Do you think the price of oil will go down? I am talking in the $50 barrel range.

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wgm

05-09-2008 19:37:41

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

On or about January 20, 2009.

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Rick Kr

05-09-2008 06:21:22

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

My uneducated guess.

As demand goes down, price goes up. So if another energy comes along. Hydrogen fuel cells, etc. Hydrogen will become cheap (demand) and oil crude will stay high (less demand).

Similar to what R12 has done vs R134.

I have no data to back this up. Just guessing.

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Vern-MI

05-09-2008 04:01:24

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

If a new clean burning fuel such as Hydrogen (fuel cell) replaces crude oil the price of crude may drop. Crude is used to make other products but it has a bad reputation of poluting our environment and the environmentalists are not going away. To bad the environmentalists don't attack the real problem of overpopulation.

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big fred

05-09-2008 07:07:05

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Vern-MI, 05-09-2008 04:01:24

By getting us to switch to ethanol, they might do just that.

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buickanddeere

05-09-2008 06:28:54

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Re: Energy price duration? H2 source? in reply to Vern-MI, 05-09-2008 04:01:24

Where is this clean cheap hydrogen coming from?

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rodgernbama

05-09-2008 15:50:10

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Re: Energy price duration? H2 source? in reply to buickanddeere, 05-09-2008 06:28:54

water

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05-09-2008 14:02:08

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Re: Energy price duration? H2 source? in reply to buickanddeere, 05-09-2008 06:28:54

By way of many new nuclear plants using some excess electricity to breakdown sewer water and saltwater. Proposed in service about 2070- 10 years to build after 50 years of political infighting for building permits. Possible energy source- sewer gas/methane generators in munincipal systems used to run bus and taxi service, systems exist now in a few locations( Bombay/Mumbai, India, London area) so process works. 10 year lead time to build and will help the local area of sewer treatment plant- but unless the politicians who are full of **it contribute their raw material- won't do much better than 10/20% energy requirement for area- 2005 London estimate for full sewer treatments to recover methane. Amish look like they're prepared, fuel storage means full barn- but historically requires about 25% of cropland to be used for the hayburners. RN

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gun guru

05-09-2008 02:45:54

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

The decline of the US dollar makes imported oil more expensive. Also the OPEC extortion group sets the price, OPEC needs to be abolished by the US military. (maybe go take some of the that oil for ourselves, at $50/barrel) Lets invade Venezula and take their oil, oops I forgot all our US military guys are in the middle east making sure Iraq pumps oil real cheap for the Iraqis not the USA.

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rodgernbama

05-09-2008 15:57:12

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to gun guru, 05-09-2008 02:45:54

If it keeps getting higher that may be our only option. We are so slow about going to an alternative energy. We was made well aware of the energy problem during Jimmy Carter days 34 years ago and look where we are today.

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1936

05-08-2008 20:13:08

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

Gas is 4.20 twenty miles away at this time. Oil is 123.00 today and talking 150.00 oil and 5.00 dollars gas next.
No, we will never and that is a long time see 50.00 oil.

Today 20 gallons cost me 74.00.

On I 80 in IL today I was a brick in the road staying with the big trucks at about 55 MPH. Most of the vehicles were running 70 and above so money is no problem so bring on the 5.00 gas.

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TomTex

05-08-2008 19:42:54

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

There are a Gazillion Chinese, all itching to buy their first car. Just a few years ago, only 1 car in 20 families. The number is now growing rapidly, in fact, exponentially. China needs for oil is going to go out the roof, over the next 10 years, and will probably out-pace what OPEC can supply them. They will outbid the USA on the world markets and further drive up the oil prices. Remember they (China) finances our dificit spending the last 7 years, and fill our Walley Worlds shelves with cheap junk to fill American tight-wads unlimited appetite for a "good deal", price over quality every time, China cheap over Made in USA every time. America has lost most all of its manufacturing base, has not maintained its railroads, has not developed battery/electric auto technology, not developed clean coal techniques, etc. etc. Meanwhile, we sit here thinking that ethanol from corn will solve anything. Dont hold your breath to see lower fuel prices any time soom. Tom

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Matt from CT

05-08-2008 20:29:57

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to TomTex, 05-08-2008 19:42:54

>Remember they (China) finances our dificit >spending the last 7 years,

China holds $450 Billion in out debt. I think we've had single year deficits that big over the last 7 years. They are the 2nd biggest holder, after Japan (whose economy has been sucking pond water since 1990 so they have to invest somewhere...)

It's a lot, but not a commanding part of our overall debt, the vast majority of which we owe to ourselves.

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kyhayman

05-08-2008 19:00:44

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

Yes, the bubble will burst; the dollar will roar again; and the cycle will repeat. While in real terms the price of oil has never been this high the business cycle is old news. In the 70's it was a land bubble and a weak dollar; in the 90's it was the dot com bubble, now its a real estate bubble again.

It wont come down soon and it wont be pretty until (and when) it does but the business cycle goes on.

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Al -VA

05-08-2008 18:55:48

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

Does anyone take less than market price for what they sell?

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Carl NY

05-08-2008 18:35:55

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

I believe the main reason for high prices are the people speculating everyday on crude oil. Until these people get burned real bad by a sudden drop in price and loose large amounts of money, they will hang in for huge profits. Much the same conditions of the deregulation of electricity in California. This country needs to shut down for about 5 days and the inventories would be turned upside down. How many stations have you seen with signs-- No Gas. They would not know where to store it all after 5 days.

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Heat Houser

05-08-2008 17:06:35

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

The cure for high prices is.....high prices.

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paul

05-08-2008 15:51:31

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

We have to get through our weak dollar phase with the housing mess. That will require a round of inflation - which the high energy prices will help provide. We are still dealing with the recession that was needed first. These ecconomic levlers have their pattern!

Then India & China will need to get to a level demand - right now they likely will buy any 'excess' oil out on the world market, even if we conserve & use less.

Could be a while.

--->Paul

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rodgernbama

05-08-2008 15:32:50

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

One of the oil analyist said that the fundamentals of supply and demand is such that oil should be around $60.00 a barrel. Most claim it is the weak dollar that is causing high oil prices. I don't see the dollar getting better till the Federal Reserve raises interest rates but they are relucant to because of the sluggish economy. I still believe if OPEC said they was going to raise output it would lower prices. But they are saying that some are having a hard time finding buyers because there's plenty of oil on the market.

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dr sportster

05-08-2008 15:20:15

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

Generally no ,but Im sure hoping it does.Also considering a better commuter motorcycle.Its going up 5 cents a day.I also dont know what kinds of road work or paving is going on but traffic is getting insane around my area.As more homes are build quality of life is going way down.I like the guy whos truck says"America is full go home" See what financial analysts say[the guys who said they would never beleive it going over fifty a barrel]So who knows?

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Kestrel in CT

05-08-2008 17:47:01

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to dr sportster, 05-08-2008 15:20:15

dr, What kinda bike you thinking of ?

I use my Harley (Sportster) for almost all my errands, weather permitting. At close to 45 mpg, it's crazy not to.

And it turns a mundane trip into an adventure for sure.

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dr sportster

05-09-2008 13:44:03

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Kestrel in CT, 05-08-2008 17:47:01

Id like to look at the Buells.All my Sportsters are kick start.One is a stroker, very annoying to start and one other is a Paucho rigid frame [hard on back].I have a Ducati but you lean forward and it makes me speed.Alot of Police radar latley.Maybe even a new Sport.

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Amarillo doug

05-08-2008 15:10:50

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

H*ll No.The only reason it is up is because the oil companies know they can name their price and people will pay it or go without.Same thing with natural gas.When they claimed there was a shortage a year or so ago the equipment co Iwork for does alot of work for the gas producers and threir guys told me that they were out capping producing wells to create the "shortage".Sorry about the rant but it Pisses me off the way big oil is treating the little guy that makes this country work.

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tlak

05-09-2008 02:47:19

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Amarillo doug, 05-08-2008 15:10:50

Bush and our government at work

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dangerdoc

05-08-2008 17:22:45

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Amarillo doug, 05-08-2008 15:10:50

Oil goes up for auction every day.

If there are alot of buyers with money in their pockets itching to buy, the auction price goes up.

If there are fewer buyers with less money in their pockets, the price goes down.

Be careful what you ask for, a depression would bring the prices right down.

On the other hand, if the greens and congress would let us drill off Florida and California, If we had started drilling in ANWR four years ago, or if the big reserves in the Dakotas play out, there would be more supply driving prices down and less money leaving the country, strengthening the dollar.

This isn't a good guy, bad guy problem. This is the result of normal markets compounded by some poor decission.

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Unruh

05-08-2008 15:06:39

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

I don't know about the executives, but I don't really think it's the stock holders. Where do you get that information? If you Google XOM which is the stock symbol for Exxon, a year ago the stock was $80.83. Today it's 89.89 with $1.07 of that just today. Do you think that's BIG money? If you do, why don't you invest all of your money in oil company stock if you think stock holders are making it really big?

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JoeBob/IN

05-08-2008 18:41:07

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Unruh, 05-08-2008 15:06:39

The question now is how many times has their stocks split? $80 a year ago hits $100 then splits so now you have two stocks at $50 which still equal a total of $100 and suddenly they hit $80 again for a total of $160 so they split again. Now have 4 at $40 and months later hit $90 for a total of $360! Only worth $10 more than when ya bought right! Blame ALL the problems on the speculators! I mean all. There is no reason for oil to be at $120 a barrel nor (hate to say it!!) corn at $6 a bushel. All speculation and money makin going on and that is it.

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Allan In NE

05-08-2008 14:43:32

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

I drove by a station this morning and they wanted to charge me 50 cents just to peek at the pumps on my way by. :>)

Allan

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olddog

05-09-2008 06:31:11

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Allan In NE, 05-08-2008 14:43:32

I sneezed while filling up and put an extra 6 bucks worth in.

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Heyseed

05-08-2008 16:20:50

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Allan In NE, 05-08-2008 14:43:32

Allen, where is that station? It is 65 cents around here... Don"t tell everyone or they will drive by also.

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coloken

05-08-2008 14:41:34

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

What you are asking is the same as "will the dollar ever double in value" Never again.

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dddl

05-08-2008 14:40:18

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

Yep, about the time we all starting using water to power everything! (just kidding so don't bash me to hard)

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doug in illinois

05-09-2008 17:19:38

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to dddl, 05-08-2008 14:40:18

Water as fuel? Don't laugh, maybe it is time to bring back water injection like used to be on WW2 era airplane engines. LOTS of heat going to waste in the engines, I am thinking with a computer injecting the right amount of water at the right time could up power stroke for near free. DOUG

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TravisB

05-08-2008 14:39:20

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Re: Energy price duration? in reply to Spook, 05-08-2008 14:35:40

nope. oil companies, their stock holders, their CEO's, and market specualtors are making too much money to ever allow oil to drop back to a reasonable price. i really think that unfortunately we're stuck with what we got. it might drop a little but the $50 a barrel days are long gone im afraid.

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