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Crash of the late 70's again?

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Kelly C

04-20-2008 18:56:20




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I read this article on MSNBC. Sure hope you guys are not going nuts borrowing money.
With the high comodity prices nows the time to pay down debit not get more.

What are you guys seeing out there?




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mj

04-21-2008 08:57:53




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to FarmallJoe, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  

old said: (quoted from post at 21:48:01 04/20/08)..... who knows what will happen to those that live on S.S.
Hobby farm



No problem ..... congress will give themselves another 4 or 5 grand raise ..... this will inspire them and they will come up with the answer: Let them eat cake! :evil: We are headed straight to heck in a handbasket and they are holding hearings to see if some ex-sports hero used steroids in the past ..... . HELLO? :?

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buickanddeere

04-21-2008 05:17:01




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 media Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
It"s only going to be a bad as media tells everybody it"s going to be. 90% of people believe what they see on the TV, radio or big screen and act accordingly. People are sheep.



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MarkB_MI

04-21-2008 03:38:55




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
The conditions of today are much more like those of the early '20s than they are of the '70s.

The seventies were marked by high interest rates coupled with high inflation. Neither of those conditions exist today.

The early twenties were probably the biggest single "boom" period for agriculture in the history of our country. Historically high grain prices resulted in enormous overproduction and extensive borrowing. The subsequent price collapse resulted in massive farm foreclosures, the dust bowl, and (in part) the Great Depression.

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farmerjohninpa

04-20-2008 21:39:14




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
borrow, borrow, borrow was the theme of the gov. and the banks prior to the depression,,,sound like the last 12 years or so does it not?? been telling every one i know for the last year to store up at least six months of food and provisions for i seen this was coming. the u.s.a. has a population of 30 milion people,as the european and the asian markets keep growing in numbers reaching into the billions how in the world are we gonna compete with them?? if we combine with canada and south america and mexico we may have a leg to stand on,,if not we have two choices as i see it,,join the europeon market and change over to the euro dollar or become " the richest 3rd. world country on the map! yes my friends we are in for some hard times here,, and i`m tired of people saying the fed. reserve will pull us out of it. please look into it if you do not know already,, the federal reserve has nothing to do with the goverment, it is controlled by the 5 or so banks in england that control the world econonmy. the federal reserve took out a full page ad back in the 3 largest papers in america and stated just that back in the 1970`s.we are not moving slowly into a situation here,,every one see`s and feel it, we are rocketing towards are major change of events in our history. and as the gentleman posted above, may God remember us in His mercy !

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dansuper27

04-20-2008 21:36:09




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
This crash is going to be much worse than the 70"s. Our country doesn"t produce any wealth anymore, all wealth comes out of the ground. Oil, steel, wood, grain, etc to manufacture the products. We import the lions share of these items and it was all bought on credit or the fiction of rising home prices which were borrowed against. Now the time has come to pay the piper and there is no wealth to do it with or the means left to do it since the big companies exported everything off shore. God help us....it"s going to be bad. I think this could make the depression look like a picnic.

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old

04-20-2008 20:48:01




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
70s?? I think we are heading for what it was like in the 30s. If the falling dollar and the prices keep going up we will end up in a depression. Then we are in real trouble. No jobs, no money and who knows what will happen to those that live on S.S.



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RodInNS

04-20-2008 21:59:55




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to old, 04-20-2008 20:48:01  
I also believe that we are headed for a mess that looks something like the 30's again. The only difference now as opposed to then is that America had a lot of resources to dig itself out of the mess THEN. It doesn't have near the resources or the prestiege (sp) in the world today that it had then.
What we now see is the sun setting on the American empire as it was then setting on the British empire.... By the end of the second war Britian was worn out and spent and had mostly ceded what power it had around the world to the US.
China is coming. My fear is that they will not be very benevolent masters.... They seem to practice a very ruthless form of capitalism that was perhaps not even practiced in the US in those days.

Rod

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Matt from CT

04-21-2008 05:00:05




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to RodInNS, 04-20-2008 21:59:55  
>It doesn't have near the resources or the >prestiege (sp) in the world today that it had >then.

The U.S. of the 1930s was not prestigous (sp? I think I got it wrong, too)...

It was an isolationist country that had no effective international diplomatic clout, and a long line of nations ahead of it in military power.



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RodInNS

04-22-2008 05:49:16




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Matt from CT, 04-21-2008 05:00:05  
I think the US actually had quite a bit of respect throughout the world in those days. They simply were not as active in world affairs. The American public in those days were indeed very isolationist, but I don't believe that could really be said of FDR or his crew. He was very much an internationalist....
So far as the US military of that day is concerned, it was nothing compared to what it became, or what it remains. However, they did have one of the largest navys afloat, probably third in the world behind Britain and France, and a good distance ahead of Germany.
Whether the military power of the US was active at the time or not is not terribly relevant. It was recognized by Churchill, and perhaps many others including Hitler that there was a tremendous potential in the US to arm itself, and to do that VERY quickly due to the resources that it had. Hitler took nearly every step he could to not provoke the US into that war, and in the end he didn't. As we all know it was the attack at Pearl that finally brought the US ito that war, with serious consequences for the agressor....

The US today is largely seen as a bulley and agressor throughout the world, more feared than respected, as it once was.

Rod

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Big Mike

04-20-2008 22:29:15




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to RodInNS, 04-20-2008 21:59:55  
If it comes down to those B@stards being "Our Masters", I imagine the Nukes are gonna fly..... .



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730 virgil

04-20-2008 20:47:11




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
i talked with the man that rents my 20 acres of corn ground this afternoon. he was telling me he wants to get as much fertilizer spread as fast and soon as he can. he is afraid there will be a shortage as season gets going. i told mrs 730 as wild as this sounds i think this is a way to force farmers to going organic. it would free up a lot of petro-chemicals to make more gas and diesel. mrs. 730 saw on tv today more than 50% of worlds people think we are going to run out of oil.

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E.B. Haymakin'

04-20-2008 19:45:36




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
I agree with all these posts. I am really depressed about where are country is, and will be.



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Old Roy agiin

04-20-2008 19:43:21




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
I just read the other day a familey of 4 not makeing $75,000 is considered middle class. Where in PA can we get these jobs? I never made that much a yr in my life.As I see it we ain't seen nothing yet..And God be with us all!!!



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Spook

04-20-2008 19:25:36




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
I am not a farmer, never have been. But I sure remeber the late 70's and 80's. The late 70's, interest rates started going up, Paul Volker was the fed guy. Inflation, born during the Vietnam war, with a federal policy of "guns & butter" ( Johnson ) ramped up to double digits. The first war now, pay later. Just like Iraq. To kill it, the fed raised interest rates, several times. House loans got to 14 - 15%. Car loans got to 18%. I know crop prices fell off, largely due to the grain embargo. A lot of people got hurt. I think now the damage is going to be worse. People have on average much more debt. I think the majority of people on this board are miiddle class in income. The working people, the guys in the factories and service jobs, are on average, about 3 paychecks from broke. High fuel prices and rising food prices are stressing them even more. The unemployement numbers are way understated. ( unemployement runs out, you are no longer unemployed, even if you still don't have a job? ) And the inflation numbers are just flat out rigged. And I think the weak dollar is not going to help exports much. We have already exported the jobs, and the dollar would have to fall to ridiculus levels to match wage rates in the 3rd world. I don't see a silver lining.

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Big Mike

04-20-2008 19:40:05




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Spook, 04-20-2008 19:25:36  
You hit the nail on the head, Spook! We're gonna hafta bring the jobs BACK to this Country, and start making our own stuff again! "Pull yourself up by the Bootstraps" don't work, when the powers that be take your boots away!!!!!



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RodInNS

04-20-2008 20:34:36




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Big Mike, 04-20-2008 19:40:05  
I'd like to know where the people are going to come from to fill these jobs? Mabey it's different where you are, but here it's too the point where the coffee shops can't find help anymore. There's an official unemployment rate of 14% or so which is comprised of mostly one seasonal worker or another on layoff. We're about as close to full employment in this country today as we've been in over a generation.
People here are traveling 5000 miles from home to work in the oil patch on a rotational basis. The money is so big that they can't afford to not go and the cost of living so high there that they can't afford to stay there..... so I don't think there's a real lack of jobs around for those that want them right now. There's certainly a downside to those jobs, but they are jobs. We don't have a hope of ever again producing all the goods here that are now made in China because we don't have the labor. We'd need another massive immigration from China to do it.

Rod

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Uh-huh

04-21-2008 09:24:37




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to RodInNS, 04-20-2008 20:34:36  
Day traders, Health care insurance bureaucrats, etc.



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Big Mike

04-20-2008 21:14:24




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to RodInNS, 04-20-2008 20:34:36  
I'm talking about Manufacturing Jobs, Rod. Everything you buy now has "CHINA" stamped on it.
And they ain't no Oil Fields here! (Too high a Sulfer Content I'm told) ":^))



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RodInNS

04-20-2008 21:48:36




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Big Mike, 04-20-2008 21:14:24  
I don't care what kind of jobs you're talking about. There's nobody here to fill them. The last two years all we've heard is a giant sucking sound as people leave for the west. Most of them are living in company camps out there on site because there simply isn't an infrastructure there for them to live there.... so when they get sick of it all they come home for a while. I can't count how many friends I have out there right now.
The fact that a coffee shop, contractor, welding shop, farm, or just about anyone else can't get good help around here now is only a side effect. We used to have a very cheap standard of living here but even we have seen a fairly rapid rise in the cost of most things due to increased labor costs to keep people here.

There is no appreciable amount of manufacturing of goods in this country anymore for the simple reason that the combination of a small, limited labor pool and increasing, expensive environmental standards has driven this work to South East Asia. We watched a 300 million dollar (1989 dollars when it was fully modernized) steel mill being sold for 10 million in 2001 and moved to India.... the end of the line for a 100 year old mill. At the end it employed nearly 1000 people, but in it's heyday during the second war there was close to 6000 employed on that site (not to mention the coal mines that supported it and the local power plants..... and those mines are now ALL closed too) .... and you know something? Hardly anyone notices that the damn things are gone today. The first year that the company turned a profit in 40 years was in I think 2004 when the bulk of the scrap from the various steel structures on site was sold. That ought to say a lot about the state of north american manufacturing.

Rod

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Big Mike

04-20-2008 22:26:30




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to RodInNS, 04-20-2008 21:48:36  
In the Mid-West Manufacturing/Steel was KING!
There's plenty here to work in Manufacturing, if the Durn jobs would come back from Mexico/Asia!
Glad things are booming out your way! But that's not here.....



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Tradititonal Farmer

04-20-2008 19:12:56




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Kelly C, 04-20-2008 18:56:20  
My estimation is the coming mess is going to be worse than the 70's because we have dug our hole much deeper this time.All credit is out of control and Paying the Piper ain't gonna be pretty



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Big Mike

04-20-2008 19:49:56




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Tradititonal Farmer, 04-20-2008 19:12:56  
We? I've driven the same Pickup for 15 years, have only 3 1/2 years left on my Mortgage, and haven't had a Credit Card for a few years now.
HOWEVER, Medical Care/Drugs are outta sight, GAS is W A Y over-priced and everything but my WAGE is going up? Taxes too!



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Tradititonal Farmer

04-21-2008 05:16:01




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 Re: Crash of the late 70's again? in reply to Big Mike, 04-20-2008 19:49:56  
Thats right WE as a country. You,me and every other US Taxpayer is on the hook for the US National debt and it will come from us one way or the other.Gov't doesn't 'give' us anything we pay for it in the long run.



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