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ethanol plant failure

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billonthefarm

02-03-2008 06:15:53




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Here is a story in the paper this morning. It seems as anything that could have went wrong did and alot of people, not just those mentioned in the article who should have known what was going on, but farmer investors, employees that quit jobs to go to work there and were then laid off, and contractors who havent been paid, have lost millions of dollars and the grain the farmers hauled in this fall is in the control of the IL dept of ag. This should not have happened. bill

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Tradititonal Farmer

02-03-2008 11:18:52




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to billonthefarm, 02-03-2008 06:15:53  
Only a few of many that will loose lots of $$$$ on the etthanol scam



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rrlund

02-03-2008 09:51:33




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to billonthefarm, 02-03-2008 06:15:53  
They've been selling $20,000 shares in a new plant going up here. All the ads,print and broadcast warn of the risk. Buyer beware.There are no sure things.



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skyharborcowboy

02-03-2008 08:16:51




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to billonthefarm, 02-03-2008 06:15:53  
My personal opinion is the Ethanol is no good for anyone! In the long run I dont see it doing anything other then raising the prices of everything we consume. Having said that there is an ethanol plant just down the road from me that just went up that is probably placed in the best place to be economically feasible that it can be.

There is a rail spur that is right next to a feed lot that has around 100,000 head of cattle on it. Rail cars unload the corn to the ethanol plant and they process it. When they are done with it the mash goes to the feed lot and they process that into to feed for the cattle. When the cattle get done processing it the manure gets trucked next door to the fertilizer plant where they turn it into various forms of fertilizer for all of the chain home improvement stores. That was pretty good planning by someone to place all of those businesses on contiguous property!

Joe

PS. Best of all is I am less then 8 miles from all of that and I only get to smell it maybe 5 times a year due to the prevailing winds!

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oleblu

02-03-2008 07:45:56




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to billonthefarm, 02-03-2008 06:15:53  
There are more details to this story than the paper puts into print. NO, I'm not an interested party, but have heard of some of the things going on behind the scenes that were factors in their downfall. The rail line that SHOULD service this plant is held up in court over a squabble between 2 railroads, leading to NO ONE able to use it. A piece of machinery that would have been unloaded ON SITE needed to be TRUCKED in at an additional cost of $50,000. Was that in the paper? During the timeline of the plant the price of material (steel) has skyrocketed. No one could have predicted that. Payments to the contractors were staged to go along with the work completed. The payments were withheld due to slow progress on the contractors part. Was that reported? When the contractors left, they took the software to run the place. Was that in the story? YES, there were some VERY BAD judgements made early on in the funding of the project. Is that in the story? Sure! I think the paper needs to get MORE FACTS into their article and then report it ALL.

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CASELAILP

02-05-2008 21:15:47




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to oleblu, 02-03-2008 07:45:56  
Hey oleblu, I am not sure who you are trying to defend, but 100% of the downfall of this plant was some of the people listed in that article. The bad news is that they took a lot of farmers with them. If these people wouldn’t have had their heads “in the sand”, the plant would have been up and running with 74 million gallons of ethanol by 2006, instead of just breaking ground. These factors you listed have no bearing on the outcome, when the cause of the problem was that none of these people had any idea how to start or run an ethanol plant. They knew how to get money together and that was it. The first thing they should have done was hired someone that knew how to get this off the ground and they didn’t. Had they not have jacked around so long, they could have built the plant for 50 to 70 million, instead of spending twice that for 90% of a plant. This whole thing was doomed by 2003 not 2007. The big names in the article deserve what they got, or lost I guess. They would have been the first ones to line their pockets if things had worked out.

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Billy NY

02-03-2008 10:31:53




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to oleblu, 02-03-2008 07:45:56  
Some of what you mention parallels what is typically faced in the construction industry, the associated risks, results of bad decisions and problems left unresolved are just part of the overall program management, project level managment, and overall construction management of a large project.


I can only comment in a generic manner, having no knowlege of that kind of manufacturing plant, industry and related operations, but what you mention is very familiar in the construction industry.

1.) Any contractor who is qualified and capable of constructing a manufacturing/industrial type building in general, would NOT sign a contract that does not have an escalation clause contained in it. 10 years ago, you could not get quotes on materials that would be valid for any length of time, unlike many years before, stock on hand had also been drastically reduced for all kinds of goods, must be ordered, everything has a lead time before shop drawing approval, fabrication approval and actual delivery of materials, which eats time on the clock and absorbs escalated costs along the way. No one can predict what market prices are going to be, but no same contractor today is going to sign any contract that has no provision for material and labor escalation costs, if they do it would be a gross error on their part.

2.) Sequence & Delays: If contractor B holds a signed contract to provide and erect structural steel but is delayed by contractor A who is doing the excavation/foundation that precedes the steel erection, and contractor A's delays could be caused by a myriad of reasons, that could be attributable directly to the performance of their work, completely unrelated or a combination of each. Say contractor B is delayed 6 months or a year, they are in a precarious situation, if they bought and paid for materials, they avoid the escalation on that, but still can't install it, so when labor goes up, they should have the clause in their contract to cover the increase in costs. In this case the steel most likely would be bought out and fabricated to meet a delivery and erection schedule stipulated within the overall project master schedule. Other trades/contractors would eventually sense the obvious delays and sequence problems and may hold off as long as possible prior to material buyouts, and would be entitled to escalated costs, and would be foolish not to have the clause in their contract agreements. This can become a huge entangled mess very quickly without heavily experienced project management, contruction management, monitoring and documentation, that can lead to giant disputes over very large sums of money, that may not get resolved by arbitration, mediation or litigation, taking years to pursue and requiring even more significant sums of money for legal representation. This is worst case scenario for any large contractor in the construction industry and those who have been successful have done so by avoiding these situations on large jobs. It can be a monumental detriment to the success of a large project.


3.) Percentage of Completion Method Contractor Payments - it's industry standard, the American Institute of Architects payment requistion forms and process are the standard basis for payment terms. Usually monthly, sometimes bi-monthly payments, even weekly in some circumstances, it can be negiotiated or something that reduces hardship in regards to cash flow for a contractor under heavy burden. The work is monitored, contractor is supposed to requistion payment for work in place, project management must determine that the work is in place and is acceptable or they can and will make deductions on said contractors payment requistion. There is usually a schedule of values/detailed estimate, unit prices and other referenced cost values contained in the contract, and the master construction schedule can be cost loaded, by activity toi further help monitor the validity of progress payments requistioned, which is not even the main purpose behind a construction schedule based on critical path method, there are excellent softwares used as industry standard to tie all these things together to further organize and monitor, progress and costs, as well as logic and sequence. These schedules are also used as a tool to make up for delays encompassed along duration of the project, to re-calculate what resources and where they can be applied to remediate a serious delay and get back on schedule again. A retainage is usually held back from each payment requisition, 10-15%, until substantial completion or as sipulated in the contract, so an owner has some leverage for defective or unacceptable work performed by a contractor. Release of these funds are usually contingent upon certain conditions to be met at the close out stage of the job, sometimes held for 1 year after completion.


I don't think any media source except a related trade journal would have any idea of what it takes to successfully complete a large project, and the effort required by both the owner,construction management and contractors involved, it is the goal of every construction manager to keep a job rolling, through it's contractors, attaining acceptable production levels and progress, as well as making key decisions, planning far ahead and timely resolution of all problems,(unsolved problems will bring any job to a screeching halt everytime) avoiding delays and so on. There has to be a concentrated and highly focused effort at all times from start to finish on these kinds of jobs, by people who have the ability to cover all aspects of the job in its entirety, be it a hands on superintendent or a top notch senior project manager leading a project team, never losing sight of reaching substantial completion with minimal liability from delays and other kinds of claims.

A large project, poorly managed, that is of a complicated design, highly technical in nature, and is not adequately staffed by a team that is capable and qualified, can become a failure in a short time.

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bob18

02-03-2008 06:39:45




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to billonthefarm, 02-03-2008 06:15:53  
Sounds like they bit off to much with the coal fired plant. Seems strange doesn't it that a plant designed for new technology such as ethanol would invest in coal fired technology and not solar or wind to help offset cost. Somebody sold them a bill of goods that wasn't quite right i'd say. Being in construction it amazes me anymore the price changes that one sees between what the tell you it will cost when they sell the idea and the cost it takes to actually build something. Seems like anymore the people selling ideas and dreams are just well dressed conmen in my opinion

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Gerald J.

02-03-2008 08:17:28




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to bob18, 02-03-2008 06:39:45  
Coal is old and reliable and gets more heat for the buck than any alternative. In the very long run it may cost more but it costs a whole lot less to start using coal and its available 24/7/365 (with trains to haul it) where solar and wind are far less available. Chemical processes need constant and controlled heat to function. A variable boiler temperature makes for variable outputs on the fractional distillation column, e.g. junk for product.

Gerald J.

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bob18

02-03-2008 09:08:50




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to Gerald J., 02-03-2008 08:17:28  
Gerald, you are right, but the article said alternate source.Wasn't the coal source going to be like a backup to help offset fuel costs. So in reality you could use wind/sun on days when it was available and then costly electric when it wasn't. If you wanted the coal source wouldn't that be you main source and not your alternate back up?



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Gerald J.

02-03-2008 11:23:34




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to bob18, 02-03-2008 09:08:50  
Most plains states electricity comes from coal fired plants where the overall efficiency can't be over 40% (save those in NW Iowa getting hydro electric power cheap) and the same coal burned at the ethanol plant should yield at least 75% of its btu to the process, maybe more. So it works that burning the coal directly gets more BTU per buck and more BTU in a small space than wind or solar.

Gerald J.

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KYfarm

02-03-2008 07:21:13




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 Re: ethanol plant failure in reply to bob18, 02-03-2008 06:39:45  
Architects and engineers are total conmen. Here is how it goes. Firm A says it can design and build a "plant" for X amount, then firm B says it can design and build the same "plant" for less than X amount, firm C for even less and they all bid against each other and the lowest bid gets the job. Problem is it probably really costs what the highest bid was plus all the extras that are unforseen. BUT the engineering company somehow isn"t responsible for all the extra costs, they still get paid to do the design and management and they just keep sending bills to the owners taking no responsibility for the extra costs themselves. Happens everyday in construction, I used to own a structural steel fab shop, that is why I closed it.

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