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OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy

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colekicker

02-03-2008 00:28:48




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I know everyone is hearing it about the housing crunch, rising food costs and everything. I am just a simple country kid and got to thinking about what effect there could be if the price of diesel was say, 90 cents lower. Everything in every store shelf is touched by the price of diesel. If it was farmed, diesel tractors probably farmed it. If it was on a train, it was a diesel locomotive. When it was put on a truck, that semi was a diesel. If it was cold stuff, that reefer unit on the trailer was a diesel. If your kid went to school on a bus this morning, more than likely that bus was a diesel.

Diesel touches every aspect of American life. Although everyone puts a lot of emphasis on gas, I think that diesel has a larger economic impact. What do you think our lives would be like if we could get the price lowered? Would things be cheaper?

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john in la

02-03-2008 14:42:39




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
I know of at least one company that is betting you will be buying diesel long into the future and the price will do nothing but keep going up up up.

Marathon is expanding their refinery in Garyville La to the tune of 3.2 billion dollars.
Adding 180,000 barrels per day of refining capacity making 7.5 million gallons of gas and diesel a day.

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Andrew Youngman

02-03-2008 08:19:10




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on .. Transportation Revolution in reply to kyhayman, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Switchgrass seems to be a great alternative. Switchgrass can be grown in substandard ground is perennial so it doesn't have to be planted every year (more like 4-5 years) which will say alot of money when it comes to bio-fuel, it just plain makes sense. The truth is that changes will come. It is sure to there are to many guys in garages that can make a car with solar panels and batteries and the like.

It is just a matter of what examples of new powered transportation will come first here in our "Transportation Revolution" - that is what I will call it. These new hybrids are kind of a joke. My 93' civic hatchback did get 50 MPG, not a hybrid just a good ole' 2 valve per cylinder head on a 1.5 liter. Hybrids can't beat that by much. In fact the civic may have been better on fuel on the freeway than most hybrids!

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RayP(MI)

02-03-2008 14:25:11




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on .. Transportation Revolution in reply to Andrew Youngman, 02-03-2008 08:19:10  
One thing everyone is neglecting is the cost of producing the crop which is used to produce the fuel. Last time I KNEW, EVERY PLANT THAT YOU TAKE OFF THE SOIL TAKES FERTILIZER WITH IT. YOU HAVE TO PUT NUTRIENTS BACK IN SOME FORM. CROPS AREN'T FREE!



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James22

02-03-2008 08:00:57




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
No way things would get cheaper. Once the manufacturers/retailers get the public accustomed to pay a higher price it will not go down. Just more money for their coffers. Only what you pay at the fuel pump will be affected and you will not get it all back there either.



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HENRY E NC

02-03-2008 07:53:50




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
I agree with the diesel as a large part of our community economics and I don't believe much alcohol to end our problems. We have messed with our food supply by using grain (Corn especially) to produce fuels. If we use switch grass we get 7 times as much out of an acre. Also, biodiesel being an answer to fuels and also global warming can be made by reclaimed garbage and trash, but has anyone heard from the plastics industry? We are dependant on plastics and that cames from oil. so, we need hydrogen for fuel, and oil for plastics, and the the oil producing countries will not be buying all our companies. The drove the price up to get our dollars to buy the USA. Free for the taking.

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Gerald J.

02-03-2008 08:17:24




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to HENRY E NC, 02-03-2008 07:53:50  
Have you actually raised switch grass? It an take three years to come up.

Have you figured the VOLUME of switchgrass that would have to be stored to feed a single ethanol plant. Its more than 7 times the volume of grain.

Do you know that the enzymes to make that 7 times more ethanol from switchgrass do not exist today, that the available enzymes do only about half the ethanol as from corn?

By the time you get a field of switchgrass growing well, and a couple years of it harvested and stored there is a chance the process may work efficiently. Right now its pie in the sky, unrealized.

Gerald J.

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HENRY E NC

02-03-2008 15:01:02




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to Gerald J., 02-03-2008 08:17:24  
Switchgrass was but a small part of what I was trying to say. And so what if it takes a few years to develop. The point being that there are lots of alternative. I have recently read some articles on algea being even better that switchgrass and is easy to grow (if you have lots of water handy), My point is that hydrogen is much more plentiful and the technology exists presently. There are a few areas developing it. But remem,ber, the industry needs oil byproducts for PLASTICS, which you hear little about.

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JMS/.MN

02-03-2008 10:25:48




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to Gerald J., 02-03-2008 08:17:24  
Thanks for setting the record straight on switchgrass- yes, it is a viable alternative, but if all these claims for production per acre, no inputs, better return than corn for ethanol were true- it would be done that way already! We heard the same story 5 years ago, that in a few years these enzymes would be developed, etc. Hasn"t happened yet, but people still claim it"s more productive than corn. And don"t they understand that the by-product of corn ethanol is still a good livestock feed?

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jdemaris

02-03-2008 07:49:30




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Right now - the price of diesel is not much different than it was 40 years ago if you adjust the value of the U.S. dollar.

When it was 25 cents a gallon, there were new cars for sale for under $1000 - and rural farms selling at $10,000 - $20,000. Many people were raising families on total incomes of $12,000 - $14,000 a year.

Cheap gas or diesel prices allowed our country to do business as usual - and not do anything to look ahead and adapt to some other fuel source. That's about it. Collectively, this country knew long ago that oil resources are finite, we can't control prices to resources we don't own, and we've sat back and done nothing.

And, stepping away from the collective mentality of our country or government being at fault - how many individuals do you see doing something on their own? A few - yes, but not too many. My mindset is - you can't gripe about government inaction if you haven't at least tried to do something yourself.

My main gripe about the new higher prices is - where the extra money is actually going. If it was going to good use - it would be a good thing for this country. But - from what I've seen, it's not - and much of the "alternative fuel" thing is absolute nonsense - especially ethanol and biofuel.

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Andy C

02-03-2008 07:12:59




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Mother was 70 when she got her Bachelors degree. @ 55 years I have learned that I can glean info. from almost any walk. Why don't you post a link to your paper.
Thanks,
Andy



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HeyPigFarmer

02-03-2008 06:56:45




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Nope, here in Michigan diesel is more than gas. E85 is roughly a quarter a gallon less at the only station in the area that sells it.
Traditional Farmer: Not trying to be a jack hole here and I don't know if you have a wood boiler or a wood stove in your house. But around Tawas MI I think, maybe West Branch... either way they passed a township ordinance banning the use of those outside wood boilers. The area is very heavily wooded, and a lot of people there own property so they put in outside boilers. Well they all had automatic flue's on them and smoked a bit, the vacationer idiots from the cities didn't like it, complained, and now you can't burn wood. Most people converted the boilers to corn, but now they are back buying fuel to heat with, thanks to the few that didn't like the smell. I personally think it's great, the smell not the ban.

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Traditional Farmer

02-03-2008 11:23:11




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to HeyPigFarmer, 02-03-2008 06:56:45  
Yea I had heard Michigan had joined up with the Peoples Republics of Mass. and Kalif. but I guess the bright side of facism is the great economic times it brings(LOL)



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jdemaris

02-03-2008 08:21:17




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to HeyPigFarmer, 02-03-2008 06:56:45  
I just came back from northern Michigan - Alpena and Onaway - and off-road diesel at the pump was 20 cents cheaper than regular gasoline.

In regard to the ban on outside furnaces - is it for new intallations only or also the ones already in an being used? I ask, because all new installations will be Federally banned soon - and several companies already have the updated EPA compliant furnaces for sale that will be allowed. Central Boiler is one of them.

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Tradititonal Farmer

02-03-2008 05:45:31




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Everything affects the price of everything else.A
new truck that cost $30,000 a few years ago costs
about $50,000 now,tractors,equipment,cars and almost everything else has gone up and we might as well get used to it.Personally the to make energy prices affect me less I went out starting about 3 years ago and replaced all the gas tractors I had with diesels and now my fuel bill is less than it was 3 years ago when fuel was much cheaper per gallon.Also heat with wood so I could care less what heating oil costs might even help me as I might sell some wood.Everyone should have known higher oil prices would come just a matter of when so you need to be prepared and probably oil will still go higher compared to income.Its the world we now live in might as well get used to it.

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flying belgian

02-03-2008 12:42:25




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to Tradititonal Farmer, 02-03-2008 05:45:31  
Ten years ago Japan was paying $7.00/gallon for gasoline. We were paying a buck. Ten years ago majority of people in the world were using 70 percent of there income for food. We were using about 12 percent. If you want to live in a world econemy, all the numbers will have to be the same around the world. Am I right?



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Bret4207

02-03-2008 05:27:37




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
The high prices we face now is due in part to speculation, taxes, the false value the dollar had, taxes, environmental regulation in the US, taxes, and of course-taxes.



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billy bob

02-03-2008 05:18:00




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Bring back the Rail Ways. Yea may slow things down a little but the way we are going why rush to : higher fuel prices, more taxes, more roads need repaired. When the gov controls it all we will use the rail and it will be slow. We can not afford ourselves much longer.



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Lesformore

02-03-2008 13:29:52




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to billy bob, 02-03-2008 05:18:00  
I agree one hundred percent. The reason rails are not used for a lot of commodities is they are too slow and not efficient hauling less than carloads. A truck picks it up at a factory 1500 miles away and drops it at the buyers dock three days later. The train will take twice as long , won't pick it up at the shippers door and won't deliver it to the buyers door. The rails are only after bulk commodities that they don't have to load or unload,ie, grain, lumber, automoblies, bulk chemicals etc. Thats the stuff the can make money on without a lot of manual labour.

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jason, NW Ontario

02-03-2008 06:37:40




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to billy bob, 02-03-2008 05:18:00  
I'd like to agree with you, but so many railways have been abandoned; now private land owners crisscross the continent so much that it's almost impossible to set up new railways anywhere without someone saying, "Not in my backyard"

Diesel is now more expensive than gasoline in this region; maybe other Canadians can give feedback in their areas. I don't think it's like that south of the border.

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MarkB_MI

02-03-2008 04:52:09




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Things are never that simple.

First, the prices of all fuels, particularly petroleum-based fuels, are interlinked. Gasoline, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel all come from crude oil; refineries start with a barrel of crude and decide how much of each distillate to make. One way or another, it all gets back to the price of crude oil. Even the prices of non-petroleum-based fuels (coal and ethanol, for example) rise and fall with the price of crude oil. Likewise with natural gas.

There is a common belief that high fuel prices are bad. This is not necessarily so. Higher fuel prices encourage conservation, which is not a bad thing when you consider that there's only so much oil left. Not to mention the effect of fossil fuels on our environment. Higher fuel prices also increase oil exploration. Ask somebody who's working in the oil fields today if they'd like to go back to the cheap oil of the '80s and '90s. High fuel prices have created a lot of domestic jobs at time when our economy needs them badly.

You don't say how you propose to lower fuel prices. Would you have price controls? Any economist will tell you that, in the long run, price controls lead to shortages. Or would you eliminate taxes on fuel? If so, how would you propose to make up the lost revenue? Or would you subsidize the price of fuel? That's what we have today with ethanol production; it has resulted in, among other things, historically high grain prices which certainly has benefited farmers but has led to other unintended consequences. (For example, there is a shortage of hops, a key ingredient in BEER, due partly to the conversion of hops acreage to corn.)

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railhead

02-03-2008 05:40:54




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to MarkB_MI, 02-03-2008 04:52:09  
can I be the first to beg any farmer considering switching to corn from hops....please don't do it! I can pay 3 dollars a gal for diesel but I cannot deal with a Beer shortage.



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M Moline Fan

02-03-2008 04:11:06




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
Yeahbut, for all the examples you list, the work being done is just a (small?) part of the final price and shared by many consumers. There's an ad on tv asking what would a car that gets 50 miles per gallon do for the economy. Then they load it on a rail car and say the train hauls a ton 420 miles per gallon. Other advanced counties emphasize railways more than ours, so our govn't mostly took away that option. The gallon of gas you put in your car isn't usually shared by anyone else and is paid for by you.

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Harry Mo.

02-03-2008 04:07:13




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
I always thought diesel was cheaper to refine than gasoline, so why is it so much higher at the pumps? Harry



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1206SWMO

02-03-2008 05:26:58




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to Harry Mo., 02-03-2008 04:07:13  
Diesel is basically a by product of gas so it should be cheaper to refine.This new ultra low sulphur diesel has screwed things all up.The cetane rating is lower so it produces less power and mpg.My 91 Ford F-350 sure can tell it.

In May of last year diesel was 40-50 cents a gallon cheaper then gas.I remember filling my diesel pickup at $2.69 when gas was $3.09 to 3.19.Right now diesel is 52 cents a gallon higher.Gas is $2.74 and diesel is $3.16.They are making a killing off diesel.

I can remember 40 years ago when diesel was 15 cents a gallon and gas was 30 cents a gallon.

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JK-NY

02-03-2008 11:02:05




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to 1206SWMO, 02-03-2008 05:26:58  
Funny you should bring up the price difference between gas and diesel - I have been wondering the same thing. Only a few years (7 or 8) off road diesel or fuel oil was 60-70 cents/gal here in summer, while gas was 2-3 times as much. Now fuel oil is more than gas!! I agree alot of probably has to do with the new ULSD .



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RickB

02-03-2008 03:52:27




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 Value of the dollar in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
The current balance of trade fiasco and corresponding low value of the US dollar in relationship to other currency will destroy us if not corrected. The price of energy is insignificant in comparison; although related.



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TomH in PA

02-03-2008 05:08:59




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 Re: Value of the dollar in reply to RickB, 02-03-2008 03:52:27  
Low value of the dollar is what will correct the balance of trade. As the dollar goes down the yaun, rupee, peso, and cost of transportation go up, making offshoring less attractive. Downside of a low dollar is higher price of oil though.

Economy looked good in the nineties because things were out of whack; dollar was so high companies offshored millions of jobs with predictable results. Now we pay the price for that short-sighted bubble.

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andrew youngman

02-03-2008 00:46:15




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to colekicker, 02-03-2008 00:28:48  
I just did a report on Bio-fuels for school. I believe you have hit the nail on the head my friend. I am just a country boy, 30 years old, and don't know a whole lot about governing powers. I must say it seems we are in a bit of a bind.

The man who invented the diesel motor ran it on peanut oil originally. And Henry Ford was an absolute bio-fuel nut. Right before prohibition it was reported that 90% of alcohol made in backyard stills was being burned in engines. Hemp can create Bio Diesel, methanol, ethanol, dynamite, concrete, cereal, clothes, construction materials, rope..... on and on 50,000 times over. Needs almost no pesticide, less fertilizer than corn or soy, and can grow on junk ground!

We have options, but the people who have the leverage to make scalable changes are just fine where they are at. Corn Ethanol=JOKE! How can we put a "crunch" on that?

Email me and I will send a copy of my report with an interesting (worth reading) link. It refers to information that any farmer would absolutely love.

AHHHH I guess that was my 2 cents.

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philo-mm

02-03-2008 04:15:46




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to andrew youngman, 02-03-2008 00:46:15  
I read one time that most of the uniforms for World War I (maybe it was II) were made from hemp. It used to be pretty pervasive (invasive) 100 years ago. I thought when the tobacco buyout came there would be more pressure to allow hemp to replace tobacco but as long as were spending millions (or is it billions now?) trying to eradicate its cousin then..... .who knows there is a woman and a black man running for president.

Ryan

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JOE ZIP

02-03-2008 00:54:48




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to andrew youngman, 02-03-2008 00:46:15  
You"re 30 years old and still in school? Let"s see do I want a report from you, let me think?



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Howard H.

02-03-2008 06:24:44




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to JOE ZIP, 02-03-2008 00:54:48  

Hey Joe Zip -


I was in my mid 20's when I got my MBA. A lot of my coworkers ranging from 24 to 50 are working on their masters degrees.

I'd say the day you think you are too old to learn something new, you ought to just go check into the old folks home to wait for the end...

Howard



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Larry in GA.

02-03-2008 03:35:15




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 Re: OT: The effect of diesel on the US economy in reply to JOE ZIP, 02-03-2008 00:54:48  
Joe I was 50 and still in school some of us had to go make a living and went back to school when we could and as for me I learned more the last time around

Larry



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