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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

Smallest wheat crop in 80 years?

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dhermesc

06-26-2006 09:10:28




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I've been hearing that this is predicted to be the smallest wheat crop since 1928. I've also been hearing that the crop in Western Kansas is nowhere near as good as was predicted.

I guess the boys finally got what they wanted, make the price low enough and no body will raise it, wonder what prices are going to do next fall when final numbers come out.




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Steve KS

06-26-2006 11:43:45




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to dhermesc, 06-26-2006 09:10:28  
I don"t know when those predictions were made, but I don"t think anyone has been predicting a good crop for quite some time. Some guys out West took their insurance payment and plowed the wheat under and put in something else. Here in Central Kansas it"s been pretty spotty, but overall bad. Most guys I"ve talked to around here ranged anywhere from 10-80 bu/acre dryland, with the average somewhere around 25-30. Probably half of a decent year. Weights were all good, it was just way too thin in the field. Not good.

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Glen in TX

06-26-2006 09:18:50




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to dhermesc, 06-26-2006 09:10:28  
Seed will be high $$ and scarce but like you said many may not even want to plant it if all they get is $3-$4 with input expenses the way they are. If those futures traders want something to trade they just may have to grow it themselves. :P They will find a way to keep prices low yet you can be sure of that and expenses will keep going up. Corner your congressman about his new pay raise if you can find them. Here I heard 2-11 bushels dryland and 8-30 bushel irrigated and most of that was kept back for seed. The rest was plowed under and disastered or cut for hay and silage. Without major changes I don't expect to see our grain elevators ever full again.

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mjbrown

06-26-2006 10:28:31




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to Glen in TX, 06-26-2006 09:18:50  
I heard an old timer telling once how wheat was $4.00/
bu. in the late 1940's and wheaties were $.25 a box. Wheat is now $3-4.00/bu. and the last time I checked Wheaties ( which are mostly wheat) were $3.00/ 12oz. box. Thats $4.00/lb. or $8000.00/ton. The farmer get about $140/ton for the wheat.



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Sam#3

06-26-2006 17:38:59




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to mjbrown, 06-26-2006 10:28:31  
I'm glad someone said somthing about wheat prices of the past. I worked in a mill in 1961 and I would swear we bought wheat for nearly $5.00. No mistake gasoline was five gal. for a dollar.



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Matt from CT

06-26-2006 17:04:34




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to mjbrown, 06-26-2006 10:28:31  
Milk's the same way.

Class I milk prices are a bit under $12/hundredweight here last I saw (New England).

Saw Milk at the store the other day for $3.99/gallon...or $46/hundredweight...and that's not counting the value of the butterfat removed to make other products.

Sure must be expensive that sophisticated homogenization and pastureziation process ;)

Actually...one of the local convience store chains sells milk from a local farm / dairy (they process their own) at $1.99/gallon -- $23 per hundredweight which sounds a lot more reasonable to me for reasonable profits for the retailer and the distributor/processor (which happens to the farm, too...)

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JMS/MN

06-26-2006 18:36:35




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to Matt from CT, 06-26-2006 17:04:34  
Regarding the milk price that the farmer gets: Go to any typical restaurant, order milk with your meal. You pay about $1.25 per glass. 8,10,12 oz. Leave the waitress a 15% tip. You just paid her $18.00 per hundredweight to carry that glass of milk from the kitchen to your table. I know- you won't believe it, but do the math! You are considered a cheapskate if you don't leave a tip- some cashiers even ASK (ie-demand) for one if you don't leave one. Farmer got $11-15 cwt to produce it, pay for the farm, equipment, cows, etc., and Mrs. and the kids to do the work. (In what other job do you bring your kids to work?) Our family started with a 28 cow dairy/hog farm, maxed out at 75 cow dairy for over 29 years-, averaged one day off per year, at our expense for help- and the industry 'experts'- who don't work 24/7/365, cannot figure out why everyone quits!

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Matt from CT

06-26-2006 17:07:15




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 Meant to add... in reply to Matt from CT, 06-26-2006 17:04:34  
That local convience store chain treats Milk kind of like Gasoline -- they don't make a lot on it.

They use the milk cheaper than anyone else to bring in customers, figuring once people are at the store the profit margin on the emergency loaf of bread, the twinkies, and the $1.99/quart for Gatorade (hmmm, $8/gallon for sugar water...) make up their profits.



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dhermesc

06-26-2006 11:16:59




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 Re: Smallest wheat crop in 80 years? in reply to mjbrown, 06-26-2006 10:28:31  
Tiger Woods gets more for his picture on the box the farmer got for what is in box. For that matter the box its self costs more then its contents.



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