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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

Oil, Gas Economics

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Easy

09-01-2005 02:34:13




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Maybe I am off base, but I see a lot of posts on the fuel price that don't make sense to me. I think the following is true:

1) There is record demand for oil. Developing countries need it and are bidding for it now. Reference the Chinese company that tried to buy Unocal, an American oil company.
2) Production of oil has a hard time keeping ahead of demand. So prices go up.
3) Unfortunately, oil reserves are frequently in countries that are unstable, or downright hostile to us.
4) Alaskan oil production is only a small fraction of our needs. And it is now an old field, not producing what it once did.
5) ANWAR estimates of production is very limited too. At best a couple of percent of our demand. And due to the climate, expensive to get out.
6) Bush does not control the price of oil.
7) Neither does any other one entity.
8) If oil remains this high or goes higher, we will certaintly have some economic adjustment. Recession, Depression, depends on what your personal situation is.
9) We should all be thankful of our problems. At least we aren't in New Orleans. Easy.

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lgc

09-01-2005 08:01:17




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
THe government shouldn't have built that big ol lake ( poncytrain) right on top of the city. Knowing full well that the city might some day be flooded. At least we can blame george for that. Or could at least of tried to move the hurricane a little over to texas.



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RN

09-01-2005 19:46:32




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to lgc, 09-01-2005 08:01:17  
New Orleans -lake Ponchatrain(sic?) been there since french built the original city. Note that old 'French Quarter' is about the only section above the current water level. Levees were built to handle class 3 storms, warnings were out about trouble from class 5 storms a few years. Could have taken lesson from the Netherlands from 40 years ago and double/triple diked the polders type areas around the city. Lessons have been learned we can only hope. RN

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chvet73

09-01-2005 07:37:59




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
How soon we forget that W has been selling gas to mthe Iraq at $.05 per gallon. That was a big issue here on here last year.

And he has no control over prices.



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Oliver

09-01-2005 10:04:57




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to chvet73, 09-01-2005 07:37:59  
If you believe that you must have an IQ of 12.



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dhermesc

09-01-2005 14:13:24




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Oliver, 09-01-2005 10:04:57  
That an insult to the people with an IQ of 12.



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Hoosier JD

09-01-2005 18:47:00




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to dhermesc, 09-01-2005 14:13:24  
I absolutely love the way you guys get right to the point! I agree! Mike



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hay

09-01-2005 06:35:17




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
remember what event that happened in 1973? that's right, the Great Arab Oil Embargo. just think for a minute about rising prices and long long lines for gas. and then all of a sudden the lines were gone and gas was freely available again, but a much higher price. and every new convience store in the world was installing gas pumps. well, if we were "short" on gas why install pumps? did not make sense to me then and still don't. that single event in 1973 set a precendence for fuel prices forever. now every small or large "disaster" or production halt will result in price spikes henceforth forever. just hope and pray that the same pricing strategy does not happen to food prices. THEN everyone will see real problems!

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tlak

09-01-2005 09:36:05




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to hay, 09-01-2005 06:35:17  
After the embargo, it was found out that the oil copanies were stopping at different ports and calling that the port of origin to jack up the price.



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hay

09-01-2005 10:10:42




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to tlak, 09-01-2005 09:36:05  
i don't care what was done, i was there in the gas line and did not like it one bit. lots of bitter memories of those times. even some "service stations" would limit to 10 gallons and if someone excedded that, the tank was siphoned dry and you still had to pay. if the gas gauge was broken, they would refuse to pump gas in because of "topping off". it was a time of very real unrest and it could easily happen again, only this time on a much larger scale. since the manned service stations are history, prepay has become a way of life. next wally mart will want "prepayment" before shopping in their stores, maybe? off my soapbox now.

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dave from MN

09-01-2005 05:50:57




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
The way I look at it, this is the start of some really hard times in the US. The economic blow will be the biggest this country has ever seen. The harvest will begin before there is a "catch up" on fuel. We have no way of even guessing what we will have to deal with if we start having a disease problem. Hurricane season is not even over yet. How long has it been since there has had to be mass burials in the US? Wife was complaining bout gas prices in the mini van yesterday and I told her to try going with out a showewr for weeks and no heat and food, no gas to even put in your vehicle. She quit her bitching. I would love to head down there and do something but the farm ties me down, all we can do is send cash. Got a nice bonus this spring , dont really need it they will so I guess I will do my share. I think ALOT of prayers need to go out to our brothers and sisters down there. In the weeks months to come I think it will be shocking how bad it is. God bless any of you down there dealing with the loss of family and freinds.

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txgrn

09-01-2005 05:19:11




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
Having lived in Biloxi for 4 years, courtesy of uncle sam, I know the risks. We left when we got the chance and that was right ahead of Camille ('69) which devistated the place. It was pale compared to this.

People there and in New Orleans were/are aware of the risks. They cooose/chose to stay for their own reasons.

Our friends, still there and unaccounted for, lived there all their lives and weathered a lot of storms. This was their home and they weren't leaving. The family had been there for generations.

My aunt lived on Elysian Fields Ave in NOLA (a beautiful (was) boulevard with a wide median full of Oleanders and plams, for 20 years knowing full well the city was subject to this kind of holocaust. She had her share of storms and every storm brought at least torrential rains and flooding..... even when the levee's held.

One problem with NOLA and suburbs, is that, due to the petroleum industry in LA, and the gulf, lots of support activities have to be located there and that puts the employees at risk. The pay is super, but so is the risk as we have just seen.

So, there just isn't an easy answer. Hard to think about anything else but there's nothing I can do, at least till they open the place back up. If our friends need some help, money, housing, or whatever, we'll give it to them. But, having not heard from them, nor having been able to contact them, we just sit and wait.

Mark

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AFH

09-01-2005 06:52:15




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to txgrn, 09-01-2005 05:19:11  
Well Put.
My sister lives (must be positive) in Biloxi, on the back bay, and I have not heard from her in 5 days now. This is the sickest I have felt since my mom died, not knowing what has happened. We grew up in the RGV of Texas, and were far enough inland to treat hurricanes as just another rainy day, what has happened here is literally beyond comprehension, how do you place it in perspective, and how and when do you accept the worst?

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txgrn

09-01-2005 14:54:24




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to AFH, 09-01-2005 06:52:15  
Hard to say. Just live one day at a time and take it as it comes.

Mark



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havvey

09-01-2005 04:47:56




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
Easy you are correct to a point. But this is a run away hores and no one has the rains. Someone has got to take control like they did in WWII etc. I never liked Bush and i think alot of people are seeing that now. To give you another example why we need intervention look at russia in 1917 and the Czar. He did nothing and a bad situation got worse.



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tlak

09-01-2005 04:04:21




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Easy, 09-01-2005 02:34:13  
6) Bush does not control the price of oil.
But he does. If he worked as hard to lower oil prices as he tried to get people to buy into the social security changes, it would change. Some past presidents took control away from complete corporations because it was bad for the U.S. Not that thats the answer.
That's been my point. He hasn't and won't.



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Oliver

09-01-2005 10:13:45




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to tlak, 09-01-2005 04:04:21  
Nationalize the oil companies, and put the US Government in charge, that will reduce the cost for sure. Where are we going to buy the crude from then? Guess what, same people and same price. And, same cost of production, if not more. I never saw anything that the government could do cheaper than a private company. I own oil company stock, our profits aren't going up 10 fold.



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tlak

09-01-2005 14:58:52




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Oliver, 09-01-2005 10:13:45  
Somebody fed you a line. Over the last 10-20 years, probably as long as Chaney had something to do about it. There was a law passed saying the Gov couldn't compete with the same type business in the private sector. So on tv they would say 1000 civilian employees would be laid off saving the Gov this much money. They didn't tell you that 5000 contractors replaced the 1000. They also had to bring the buildings up to OSHA standards. So a building the fed workers worked in for 30 years, now might get a $200,000 makeover or totally torn down. I asked the contract worker what they were paid and it was the same as the fed workers. So I asked around, how they were saving the gov money if the workers were collecting the same wage as the feds. Heres how it works. The contractor pays the worker $17@hr. but bids $42@hr. So for every man hr the contractor collects $25. I see why he would want more employees running around.

Why are your stocks not going up ten fold? The oil co makes 3-5 billion a quarter.

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ntmcj

09-01-2005 06:40:54




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to tlak, 09-01-2005 04:04:21  
Say some politician could magically lower the price of oil. What do you think would be the immediate result? I'll tell you; the car companies would see an immediate resurge in the sale of large SUV's to soccer moms and the like. We as a country would have learned nothing. I was listening to CNBC the other week and one business analyst had noted that motor fuel consumption was up by about 6% in June over June 2004 even with the increase in price at that time. Any student of Economics 101 can tell you what the result from that will be. We are seeing it at the pump.

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dhermesc

09-01-2005 05:56:30




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to tlak, 09-01-2005 04:04:21  
THe US had price controls for fuel from 1973 to 1981, anyone care to recall what fuel prices did during that time frame - and how much time one spent in line getting it? In WW2 we had rationing along with price controls, do you really want to be told how many miles you'll be allowed to drive each week?



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Bret4207

09-01-2005 08:19:58




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to dhermesc, 09-01-2005 05:56:30  
Tlak- How soon they forget.

What makes any of you think that having gov't control of fuel prices would make it CHEAPER? I figure it'd be even higher, for our own good of course, no matter who's in office.



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dhermesc

09-01-2005 11:24:27




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 Re: Oil, Gas Economics in reply to Bret4207, 09-01-2005 08:19:58  
Agreed, can you think of any program the government has intervened in and LOWERED the costs? Kind of like health care, think it's expensive now, wait till it's free.



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