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OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds

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Redtom

11-18-2006 19:27:24




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I know this isn't exactly the right place for this question, but I won't be able to sleep unless I figure this out. Our state lottery is offering a "raffle" with only 500,000 tickets to be sold. They will pick 5, one million dollar winners, 10 $100,000, winners, and 750 $1,000 winners. MY question? Various newspapers etc. are saying you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of winning a million. I don't agree. I believe its 5 in 500,000. Because, if you draw the first winner from the "barrel" there will be 499,999 tickets left, so the next chance of winning will be be 4 in 499,999, and so on. In order for it to be 1 in 100,000 they would have to sell the tickets in 100,000 ticket lots with a winner in each lot. Now, your odds of winning any ONE of the prizes would be 765 in 500,000. My brain hurts and I need another beer. Can some math whiz or Vegas fan help me out?

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Stan in Oly, WA

11-19-2006 12:20:41




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
Hi Tom,

I used to say that the odds of winning our state lottery were so bad that buying a ticket hardly improved your chance of winning over not buying one. For the humorless and half-smart people who felt the need to explain to me that the difference between miniscule and zero is infinite, I'd respond that you could be given a ticket, find one on the sidewalk, have one purchased in your name, etc. Then, about a month ago, as a promotion, the lottery commission sent out a page of coupons that you could take to any ticket sales point to receive free tickets for various games, including the big lotteries. I thought it really made my point. Unfortunately, I let the coupons expire before I got around to using them. Now I'm just kicking myself; I'm sure, somehow, that I was in line to win the big one that time. Dang! I'll bet that's a feeling that gamblers never have---that certainty that this time they're going to win. I think a person should always follow those hunches because being certain something is true is absolutely the best way to determine whether it actually is true. All the great religions teach us that.

Stan

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TomH in PA

11-19-2006 09:35:34




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
The odds of winning aren't all that important. What is important is the expected value of a ticket.

A simple example: I'll sell you one ticket. Then I'll let you pull it out of a jar and give you a $500,000 prize.

Sound like good odds? By the way, the ticket will cost you $1,000,000. How many times do you want to play?



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Tim Casbolt

11-19-2006 04:52:45




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
You don't need any help with this. You've already got it exactly right. It's not a fraction, so you don't simplify it just because you could if it were a fraction. By the way, the reason the government had a problem with organized crime running numbers was because they didn't receive income taxes on the profits.



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Midwest redneck

11-19-2006 04:22:39




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
I can explain the odds to you, S-C-A-M. The government says they need money for schools...BS. The government makes piles of money off of the suckers who "play" the lottery. When organized crime ran the numbers racket the government said that was a crime, so if the government runs the numbers game it is not a crime. (double standard here) Social security is a scam too, the government says we are taking 6% of your money every week and put it in safe keeping for you, while they waste it on stupid programs and the SS system is going broke. I would love for the government to offer buyouts to us middle aged guys by saying "you paid $40,000 to the SS system and we will give you $20,000 in a payout", you just never have to pay into it anymore and you can never collect on it either, that would be great, I am dreaming. I will stop ranting now.

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Doug in Illinois

11-19-2006 18:47:29




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Midwest redneck, 11-19-2006 04:22:39  
Don't want to get started on the Social Security discussion, but let it be said that AARP is selling the senior citizens and soon to be quite a bill of goods. We should keep the promises made for our seniors, but anyone more than 15 - 20 years from retirement would be far better off being able to put a portion of what is currently being contributed into an individual account, such as a Roth IRA. The younger you are, the bigger the allowed percentage should be. SS has too many problems to keep it viable. Another gripe, for people like my mother who passed away of a massive heart attack at age 64, she worked and contributed to the system all her life. That money just gets forfeited to the government. If in her own account, her survivors would get at least what would be left over after any taxes, etc, the gov't would dream up on it.

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Midwest redneck

11-20-2006 02:46:03




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Doug in Illinois, 11-19-2006 18:47:29  
Same thing with my father inlaw. He worked for 40 years and doesnt get to collect one dime. He died at 59. If any politician was worth anything he or she would fix the SS system.



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John Garner

11-19-2006 16:55:54




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 About that Social Security in reply to Midwest redneck, 11-19-2006 04:22:39  
MR --

You've got the Social Security number wrong. The Survivor-and-Disability portion of SS is six percent off the top of your paycheck PLUS a matching amount that your employer doesn't get to call "pay". The so-called Employer Contribution is, nevertheless, real money that comes out of our employers' checking accounts, just like our pay does, but The Powers That Be would rather that we not be reminded by every paystub that the true Survivor-and-Disability tax rate is just over 11.3 percent.

The Powers That Be play exactly the same game with the Medicare portion of Social Security, adding another few percent to the overall Social Security tax rate.

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Midwest redneck

11-19-2006 17:03:22




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 Re: About that Social Security in reply to John Garner, 11-19-2006 16:55:54  
Oh yeah, I forgot. What a scam! I wish I could go to the public and say, "hey give me $1000 per year and at the end of 10 years I will give you your $10,000 back" Some folks would fall for it but the government would lock me up for stealing their idea. I will have to presume that SS wont be there for me in 25 years.



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MidMiGene

11-19-2006 02:24:09




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
In my feeble mind, if you purchased 5 tickets, you will have 5 chances in 500,000. If you only purchased 1 ticket, you only have 1 chance in 500,000. After the first winner is drawn, you would have 1 chance in 499,999. Gene



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KEB

11-18-2006 22:22:14




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
As Paul says, 5 chances in 500,000 is exactly the same odds as 1 chance in 100,000. The newspapers are correct. If you add up the odds of winning any one of the the five draws it will add up to exactly 5/500,000 = 1/100,00. If you follow your line of reasoning, the odds of winning one of the five million dollar prizes is equal to the odds of winning on any one of the five draws added together, i.e., 1/500,000 + 1/499,999 + 1/499,998 + 1/499,997 + 1/499,996 = 1/100,000 = 0.000001.

Keith

PS...if you try to verify this on a calculator, be aware that most of them round off at one more significant digit than they display & may not add up to exactly 0.000001. Using the calculator built into Windows (I don't have a portable one handy), the answer comes out to be 0.000001000004

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Bob/Ont

11-18-2006 20:36:34




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
Keep your money and you alway win. Let the Suckers Lose.
Later Bob



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Davis In SC

11-18-2006 22:07:59




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Bob/Ont, 11-18-2006 20:36:34  
My brother, who has a PHd in Physics always told me that lotteries are for the "Mathmatically-Challenged".. I do agree with him, but I play a few dollars a week for fun... The sad part of lotteries is the fact that the poor take money needed for food & other needs to play...



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Davis In SC

11-18-2006 20:30:45




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
They are doing that Raffle, here in SC.. The odds sound great.. Until you consider that it costs 10 dollars per ticket, instead of a dollar.. that is the clincher...



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paul

11-18-2006 20:03:15




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 Re: OT:Math whiz needed, help with odds in reply to Redtom, 11-18-2006 19:27:24  
5/500,000 is exactly equal to 1/100,000. Same thing. Shoulda done the math first, had the beer after.

Besides, don't argue with the Govt. They are always right.

--->Paul



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