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Implement Alley Discussion Forum

The Weatherman

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Briar Creek Sta

10-05-2007 07:26:35




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I know this is a little off topic, but it has everything to do with farming. I usually try to schedule my week around the weather. If I have 3 or 4 days that look good, I try to hay. One good day, I cut firewood or do other barn chores etc.

I�m finding it next to impossible to rely on the weatherman. He�s wrong 90% of the time, he changes the forecast every time it the weather is on. He tries to cover his butt by using words like, maybe, chance of, possibility, could get and so on. No apologies to the farmer who has 100 acres of hay down with a week of clear weather forecast that turns to rain for a week.

Anyway, I was thinking that every time I make a mistake it always costs me money. Sometimes it�s a very expensive mistake that almost bankrupts the farm. Maybe it�s time for me to change jobs. I could become your next weatherman, I could be wrong every day and still have my job tomorrow. I think I�ll give it a try

Tomorrow�s forecast for your area: You might have a clear day, there is a possibility of rain and a chance of snow. It could be overcast with a chance of high winds or a breeze. We can�t rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm or tornado if the chance of rain does occur. There is a slight chance of large hail with thunderstorms if one should pass through. The temperatures could be in the range from 13 deg to 95deg.

Let me know how accurate I was. If you were depending on my forecast to get the crops in I do apologize ahead of time for any lost crops.

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msb

10-06-2007 19:09:28




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
Some of the old saying have a lot of validity to them.----- No dew tonight, expect a rain the next day.--Red skies tonight, sailors delight. Red skies of morning, sailors take warning.--- If it rains on Monday then it will rain 3 days that week. These are ones I definitely heed.



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Briar Creek Stables

10-06-2007 06:20:06




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
I do the same as the rest of you. I look at the weather maps and the current patterns and try to decide for myself what the weather is going to be.

I can't afford to lose any hay, so I usually cut in smaller lots. This week I cut a 20 acre lot. Still have aprox. 135 acres to go before the snow flys

Not sure where some of you are cutting hay and bailing the next day. That spells mold in Upstate NY. We need atleast 3 days to get good dry hay.

We cut one day. Ted the next day after the dew is off, rake the next day and with any luck that afternoon the hay will be dry enough to bale. Sometimes if the weather is right and the hay seems to be drying fairly well I can skip the tedding, but still have to wait until day 3 to bale.

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dobber

10-05-2007 23:47:59




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
Should be called weather guesser not forcaster lol. I usually watch clouds, colors of sunrise and sunset, wind direction, barometer and can guess about as well as those on tv or NWS too. Learned some of that from weather book someone gave me for Christmas one year. NWS national weather service is usually right on about winds those when changes will occur and arrive bringing next front. They also have some dewpoint charts that can help with harvesting or haying hours if you know how to put to use what you read on those. That's where tv guys get their info anyway and some just guess or interpret closer than others.

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kyplowboy

10-05-2007 21:10:21




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
One of the local tv guys has what they call the 3 degree garentee. If he is off the high temp the next day by 3 or less some one gets an umberella. I have e-mailed him asked for a 3 day garentee. If he gives me 3 days of sun and I get hay wet, he can buy it. Have not herd back from him yet. Don't think I ever will. When they mess me up the worst is in the spring setting tobacco. One of the herbicide's lable says it needs to be put on 12 hours before tobacco is set and you can not work it in more than 2 inches. Never fails spray in the afternoon to set the next morning and it never works. You get 2" rain and have ground that is useless for a year, if you work it up more than 2" it will kill tobacco. The 2" rule is bigger that the 12 hour one. Now I take 3 tractors to the patch. spray a block, hit it with the cultimulcher, set it, while the setter if get'n filled up with water, do the same to the next block.

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johns48jdb

10-05-2007 17:00:48




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
first never cut that much hay at once. cut what you can afford to lose and quit. second - the national weather service use to have a great guy in huntsville al office that was more than willing to give me his best guess by just calling and asking him. he was very good. that might help you too. any grass hay you cut by lunch one day can be baled the next day in my part of the country.



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Rick Kr

10-05-2007 11:47:26




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
Sounds a little dumb, but I use weather dot com.

I just pull up the big satellite picture get an idea of any storm front coming, and plan from there. Look out into Ohio, Ill to the south, and Wisconsin, Iowa etc to see whats coming from the West.

I am not always right, but I think I do better than these weather guys on the local news.



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johndeereman

10-05-2007 09:46:35




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
i find that the almanac is more accurate than the weather man on tv and those almanac guys predict it 2 years ahead of time



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onefarmer

10-05-2007 09:44:00




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
My best weather forcaster is ME!

Actually I have a good forcaster I watch, he is usually right. He has been in this area all his like so he understand mid-Mich weather.

What I do is watch this guy, look at the national weather and radar maps and take my own guess. A few years back we was getting rain like every third day and excellant warm sunny days in between. I would mow hay while it was raining in the morning and the third day get it baled. Then it would rain that night. Then start again the next day. Worked that way most of the summer.

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ed19

10-05-2007 07:47:41




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 Re: The Weatherman in reply to Briar Creek Stables, 10-05-2007 07:26:35  
Yep, just the other day was standing outside looking at clear skyies while the weatherman was saying it was raining. They turn their radars up so high that humidity shows as rain and then they are all messed up. Best to just let the aches in the joints tell you whats happening. Maybe we should call them politicians? they do have a habit of telling the non-truth.



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