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restoring tractors in 50 years

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mattd

04-06-2005 19:07:10

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i was thinkin today. do you guys think people in 50 years will be restoring the tractors that are brand new nowadays. i really dont know because brand new tractors cost around 180,000 for a big enough tractor for farmers to use. they would have to have a decent amount of money to even think about restoring it, and an electronics degree for all of the complicated electrical systems in tractors. what do ya'll think

matt

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cdmn

04-07-2005 20:51:25

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

I believe we are just about at the point where no industrial biomass producer will buy a new tractor. He will just lease them for 10 years and then they'll go back to the manufacturer for rehabbing or scrap. We will see either an English Dukedom type of farming or a Hutterite community type of farming. The small freeholders living on marginal land might still be using their old Kubotas, or like in Poland and Russia, using a couple mules or horses.

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buickanddeere

04-07-2005 16:56:30

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

In 50 years there will only be about 50 farmers per state. There won't be enough nostalgic middle aged geezers restoring the tractors of their youth.

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Dan

04-07-2005 13:19:20

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

One of the reasons I selected my 1948 8N was because not only did I like the looks - but more importantly the parts were still readily available. There is almost no wearable part on that tractor that I cannot still get today new - at a reasonable cost. The large production number, plus the fact they purposely engineered them to be worked hard, abused, and rebuilt by farmers, makes them very rugged and renewable. After I finished my 48 8N, I did a 52 8N, then I took on the ultimate challenge - Project Rustbucket! I took the most wore out, rusted out, destined for the junk yard, sorry excuse for an antique tractor and attempted to bring it back to life. It was left outside with a stuck engine for decades, and I have brought it back to what you see in the pictures on the website I have linked at the bottom. I have had no problems getting parts, having machine work done on the engine, and have only spent a few thousand dollars on it - including the tractor. This includes a full engine rebuild, machine work, rebuilt hydraulic lift and pump, new tranny gears, rebuilt generator and starter, and a boatload of parts. Where else can you find this ability in a tractor? In 50 more years these old tractors will still be around, but unfortunately the rate of scrap and parts tractors for money will decrease their numbers, and the people making new parts will stop making them - then you will see a huge decline in restorations of old iron.

Dan

Project Rustbuckets Web Site

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Matt from CT

04-07-2005 08:31:58

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

Ah...

But if we discount the big boys...

What about all tractors like the John Deere 790 or 4100?

Plenty of these compact tractors being made today that'll remain reasonable in size.

Now fixing them...many parts are engineered with less "extra" in them today. Might need more custom machine work to fix them, or outright replace something with a different design.

IMHO, one of the biggest potential problems is the electronic controls for the engine. Now, it's probable you could build a module to "plug in" somehow to replace it. But, will the companies release the copyrighted software to actually run the engine properly? Will any combination Tractor Buffs/Computer Geeks be able to reverse engineer and make their own coding?

Think of the ultimate in obsolence -- mechanically sound engines, but a chip fries that controls it, there's no one left with equipment that can make an identical chip, and the company refuses to release the software for a "universal" replacement...or worse, someone deleted the files a decade back and they simply don't have the source files anymore!

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Nebraska Cowman

04-07-2005 04:20:38

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

Nahh, almost nobody will be restoring tractors in 50 years. We are riding a wave now. Lots of middle age guys that grew up on a farm or had some farm roots. Todays generation for the most part don't have that. In 50 years it will be someting different entirly. maybe boats and airplanes, maybe vintage computer games. I don't know. But everything is collectable sometime.

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MarkB_MI

04-07-2005 03:10:47

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

My opinion: Due to parts availability, restoration of today's production tractors (and autos) will not be common. The tractors of the 30's, 40's and 50's had long production runs and a lot of parts interchangeability. It's not going to be financially feasible for OEMs and aftermarket parts suppliers to maintain parts tooling and inventories for fifty years after production ends on a modern tractor.

Another factor is the size of many modern tractors. Even the largest pre-war tractors are small enough for the average person to store and use. Who's going to want to restore a 300 HP 4WD tractor? These machines will be parted out for the same reason that almost nobody restores old combines: "what's the point?"

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DENNIS IN OR

04-06-2005 23:14:14

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

i just hope that i will be around to see for myself all my tractors and i will be well over 100 years old

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Jeff Oliver

04-06-2005 19:35:39

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to mattd, 04-06-2005 19:07:10

True that the tractors now are alot more expensive and complicated than the older ones are but remember that 40 yrs ago the "new" tractors then were more expensive and complicated than the "Older" ones were then also. I have never done the math but I would almost bet that a new tractor doesn't cost alot more percentage wise that they used to in relation to wages and such.

Also, in 50 yrs the complicated electronics and things now will be nothing then. Remember when a cell phone was just high tech as all get out? Heck they take and email pictures now and even my 70 yr old dad knows how to work one.

I think that when the tractors that are new now get to the point of not being profitable to use they will be just like the antiques are now. Hehehe can you picture an old farmer hauling a tired worn out rusty JD 6410 cab tractor home and while admiring the pile of rust and broke plastic telling his grandson that that what he learned to drive on?? I am hoping I will be able to see that in 50 yrs :)

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dhermesc

04-07-2005 08:01:17

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to Jeff Oliver, 04-06-2005 19:35:39

I agree with you on the price in relation to wages and inflation, but todays tractors are many times more expensive in relation to commodity grain prices. Compare the price of a tractor to a bushel of corn or wheat in 1950 then 1970 then 2000.

I know people will claim that farmers has become much more productive and that is the reason for the stagnant grain prices - but shouldn't our brethen assembly line workers have become just as productive with robotics and CAD?

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sawtooth

04-06-2005 20:27:48

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to Jeff Oliver, 04-06-2005 19:35:39

Imagine having a restored antique JD 9420! Will trucks get bigger in 50 years too? Will a 9420 be a small tractor?

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John *.?-!.* cub owner

04-07-2005 09:51:46

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to sawtooth, 04-06-2005 20:27:48

People tend to collect and restroe the tracotrs they remeber being used when they were young. I think that the only thing available to restore in 50 years will be the now 50 year old tractors we just finished restoring ourselves. Between the plastic, elcetronic modules, and electrical connectors used on the modern tractors, I don't think many will be restorable.

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sawtooth

04-07-2005 13:51:55

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Re: restoring tractors in 50 years in reply to John *.?-!.* cub owner, 04-07-2005 09:51:46

I think you're right. The 50 year old tractors now are at least somewhat practical to actually play with and don't take much space and are relatively easy to haul. Another thing each brand is unique, that is the exhaust note etc. Modern diesels are pretty similar.

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