Tho, the basis is the local conditions, not what the fellas in Chicago decide, but what the local buyers (feed plant, ethanol plant, dog food maker, oil seed crusher, terminal to export, etc....) decide. Thos within 100 or 2 miles of you, they figure out how much more or less they need a crop that week, and that determines the basis, which is the difference - positive or negative - from the guessing game the Chicago fellas do.
Typically during harvest they have a whole lot of grain to pick from, and the basis goes pretty bad. In mid summer if crops are short, the basis can look a lot better. But if it looks like a huge crop is going to be harvested in fall, the basis can fall apart early.
This is a strange year - we are 3-4 weeks past normal harvest time, and not harvested much 'here'. All the feed plants ran short of corn a while ago, and the bean processors as well. So, basis has picked up quite a bit - but we don't have any crops harvested to actually sell! If harvest ever goes again, basis will turn down real fast.
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