Today's headline is inflation. December inflation up the most in 17 years. Yesterdays headline was economy contracted in December. I posted on here, Monday or yesterday about 'stagflation'. It was the bane of the 70's.
Right now, this week, they federal reserve is having an auction for money. Why? because they cant loan it fast enough. Banks dont want to borrow because people arent borrowing. The more cash the fed tries to throw at the market the worse it will get.
The break will come with interest rates rising. Until the fed raises interest rates to the point that it strengthens the dollar and pushes crude back down. Ultimately, energy is whats killing the economy right now. The only purchase that remained constant in December was energy consumption.
To me, what all that means is somewhere 18-36 months out the fed will have to raise rates to the point we get a correction in the energy markets. The bloodbath in housing should be over by then too. The one two punch of falling oil prices and rising interest rates will kick the legs out from under this land market. I cant see very much ethanol demand at 40 dollar a barrel oil. Crude is way over speculated, after all the dollar dropped in value by half and the price of crude doubled.
I cant predict the day the crash will happen, but I want to have cash on hand when it does.
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