Re: OT: fertilizer prices

Posted by kyhayman on December 30, 2004 at 17:28:31 from (152.163.101.7):

In Reply to: Re: OT: fertilizer prices posted by FarmerDave on December 30, 2004 at 17:13:37:

Since 1983 this has been the seasonal low time to buy (I prepay at the dealer and the pick up as I need it). In season price was always 'some' to 'significantly' higher. This year is just bizzare. So far I can only find 2 main drivers. Weak dollar and China.

The price of natural gas drives the price of N and to a degree DAP. Gas is high but not as high as it was 2 years ago yet N is a LOT higher. Imports of urea and ammonium nitrate kept a lid on it. With the dollar down against the Euro Spanish and Ukrainian N is a lot more expensive. Then China put in an order for 150 million tons of urea.

P price is actually down a little from last year. Nearly all US phosphate fertilizer is mined in the US. Dollar hasnt affected the price here, China isnt buying any more than normal, and natural gas is a little cheaper.

K, about a third of the total world output comes from Canada. China ordered 150 million tons in Oct (sent the price up $30 a ton on that alone). Weak dollar against the Canadian dollar hurts our ability to buy. Plus, report I saw showed that on June 30 when Saskatuwan (sp) Potash shut down for the month their inventory was 0. Local co-op ordered 100 tons in August for immediate delivery and due to rationing at the terminal only received 75 tons.

Did get some good news. I went aggressively price shopping and found muriate for $205, ammonium nitrate for $255, and DAP for $275.

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