Every 5 years a new road, or parking lot, or dike protecting a subdivision, or taller levee is built in the flood plain. Each of these restricts the river, raises it higher, slows it down.
What was smooth flat open fields in the river bottom here for thousands of acres the DNR took over and it has grown up into a thicket of scrub trees and shrubs a person couldn�t walk through. Flood waters 2-10 feet deep flow a lot slower through that!
We pave more and more land, water runs quickly to the small rivers and again piles higher.
We have changed that watershed a lot. We have forced the water to run slower, to rise higher.
You would need to factor that into your observations.
Then, weather seems to go on a more or less 30 year cycle. We are again in a rainy period, as has happened on a predictable schedule for centuries.
The climate does change. I farm 5 miles from the Minnesota river, it is carved into the ground 200+ feet deep. Because I also farm a few dozen miles from Swan Lake, which is the remnants of the glacial lakes of 10,000 years ago. The melting glaciers washed the Minnesota river valley out - we are a green version of the Grand Canyon here, the river valley is deep and wide. The ice was so deep it scraped 130 feet of clay off of the Mankato area and deposited it on my farm. As the ice melted my farm was part of the lake bottom, and a deep black topsoil formed from the aquatic life.
Yes, climate changes.
Yes, we have weather patterns that cycle through extremes.
Yes, we can change river flows with all the bulldozers and tar and concrete.
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