Re: Will there be any Old Tractors left?

Posted by dmiller on April 18, 2016 at 18:16:32 from (162.253.13.224):

In Reply to: Will there be any Old Tractors left? posted by The Famous Grouse on April 18, 2016 at 14:17:22:

From a different perspective.
The tractors in question are (1970's and earlier)generally in a value range of 10,000 to a few hundred, in a weight range of 6 ton or smaller (the vast majority in the 3 ton or less range and valued at $4,000 or less), at HP ratings of 120 down to about 20.

When you go to an auction to purchase an old tractor depending on the shape there are basically 4 buyers.
1. Someone looking for a work tractor that is somehow cheaper or better/bigger than what they have now (or something they can afford as a startup tractor)
2. Collectors who want to either restore/resell, or who are truly collecting.
3. A sentimental person who is saving an heirloom (a bit different than a collector)
4. The scrapper.

So in say 50 years, assuming the buyers are still these 4 options. You will be looking at tractors that are (same 40-70 year old range)from the years 2010 back to about 1980. These tractors will be in a range of prices from a few thousand to 20,000 or so in weight ranges from 4-8 ton. Assuming a rate of inflation over time what will the scrap price of steel be? I think you will see that tractors in the future will have a scrap base price of around $2,000 due largely to their excess weight.
The size, weight, and scrap value will change the 4 buyer positions. That coupled with the changes to our society and the decrease in number of people connected to ag.....

1. Still going to have people looking for startup tractors and improvements to the startup that they had. But these guys aren't going to be looking for a tractor that is smaller than 50 hp and 80 plus years old.
2. Collectors, but they will most likely be collecting the tractors of their youth (at that point from the 80's and newer) and the occasional truly special rarity. But like the steam tractor collectors there will not be many collectors due to the size and weight of moving around these newer tractors.
3. There will not be many looking for the heirloom, not too many left with the heritage.
4. The scrapper. Most will go here, through a dealership trading in program. The days of parking the old by the woods and walking away are long gone. People need the trade-in value as they upgrade.

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