I'd agree with most of what you say - except I think expecting 40 years out of a new tractor is pretty optimistic.
Old tractors (40's - early 50') stick around because manufacturers didn't really get the "planned obsolescence" idea till later.
And they were so simple, when something DID break, it's usually a pretty simple farmer fix.
A modern tractor kept 15 or 20 years will be an absolute nightmare. A machine that's designed to be traded in in 5/10 years combined with the complexity of the all the modern controls and safety features/ emmissions controls, deteriorating plastic, etc etc - FORGET it.
And when you do have any trouble, it could mean a dealer visit as opposed to a simple swap out in the field. That kind of cost can't be ignored, and you should factor it into your cost estimates.
So - no argument that there's something to be said for new dependable equipment - just realize that same concept will continue to apply in another 5 to 10 years.
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