Re: Corn future GMO?

Posted by Paul on April 29, 2014 at 10:04:43 from (66.60.223.232):

In Reply to: Re: Corn future GMO? posted by oldtanker on April 29, 2014 at 08:56:40:

China can't control their own food supply. That worries them
and rightly so. Hungry folk don't behave well.....

We fiddled with our grain shipments in the Nixon and Carter
administrations, and that woke up China and other countries,
that the USA can not be trusted as a food supplier.

South America has such ingrained political problems that they
are just a mess to try to get grain from; while they might pass
us in soybean exports this year they still are just dang
unreliable, their transportation can't keep up, they have no
storage to speak of, and their governments keep taxing and
messing with producers and shippers to the point efficiency
fails.

I believe China is looking to Africa now to expand agriculture,
and find enough different sources of grain to ease and concern
of being held a food hostage by USA or SA for political or
economic goals.

And you know, I don't blame them.

So to your question.....

I believe we have a lot of hungry mouths to feed across the
globe, and many of them are getting better lives and want
better (protein) foods and more of them.

So we are in a rising time for agriculture, if China buys from
others, or expands agriculture in Africa, we still have many
places to export to and eager buyers. They will lose out to
China and be coming our way.

Bumps in the road like China's anti-gmo games or a few years
ago when they would ship soybeans out of northern ports, float
them for a while, and then have magical imports of beans to
report are all part of the game to ebb and flow grain prices.

It will work briefly and we will lose a little and China will gain a
little, but there are x number of mouths to feed across the
world, and x number of acres harvested across the world,
China can't change that. It will balance out year to year.
we are lucky that SA has expanded its agriculture as it has in
the past 40 years. We don't produce enough grain in the USA
to feed the world!

I think likewise in 20 years, if Africa and Ukraine get their acts
together and become bigger food exporters I think that will be
needed by the world, not a negative to us. I think Ukraine is a
scary place to rely upon for food right now, they looked so
promising just a couple years ago - they are so close to
Europe and Strong Middle East countries they could export
and transport far cheaper than us to those locations....

But short term yes these deals will cost us, and needs to be
considered as we market our grain. It could cost us 25 cents a
bu average, with deeper swings at certain times as markets
react to certain announcements.

It is a real concern.

Long term, it is just all part of the grain import/ export game.
More mouths around the globe, there will be more people
looking to import.

Paul

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