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Re: demise of fuel with ethanol?


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Posted by RodInNS on November 26, 2013 at 06:58:50 from (216.118.158.123):

In Reply to: Re: demise of fuel with ethanol? posted by IaGary on November 25, 2013 at 19:08:13:

Well... corn is still actively trading at 7.50 up here. Down slightly from where it was. Keep in mind that where I'm at on the east coast we have a significant transportation cost that is reflected in that price.... Our region doesn't produce enough corn to meet our needs so pricing generally reflects the Ontario price plus freight. The balance may shift on that in the next couple of years... or mabey not.

As far as cattle go... the Canadian herd has been in contraction mode since about 2003-05 after BSE. IIRC, the US herd is also in contraction the last few years because of feeding costs... but to say that the price of beef has come up because the price of corn has risen... I think is not quite correct. It's risen because supply is short... which is no doubt because of the price of feed... but when feed becomes more available, the herd will grow again the price will flatten again.

The other problem we have here is that we spent 20 years working with a 60 cent dollar and a lot of our costs are inflated in real terms to reflect that. Now that our dollar has appreciated in the range of 95 cents to par with the US dollar, the real prices we receive have declined but the cost base is still there... so there's no great pot of money to work with here.

For an example on prices... the last feeder sale a week ago... 5-600# steers brought an average price of $1.58 with the top group going for $1.72... On an average weight of 568# @ $1.58 that cow made ~900 bucks for the year. She's apt to have a pretty lean winter if she's going to pay for her feed.
I have no doubt that on a fairly large scale and very low cost model you could make some money at it here... but the reality is that most are not operating on a large scale... and it would require a huge investment for them to get there... which is probably not warranted given the cycles we see here.

Rod


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