Ian, different brass, slightly deeper seating, different bullets or primers can all lead to unexpectedly higher pressure signs. So can different powder measures or a scale that got bumped over the years. I've never heard of powder deteriorating where there wasn't an odor or appearance change.
Re-reading you post I get the impression it's loaded rounds. If so, it's not unheard of for bullets and brass to "weld" themselves together in the neck area. And if the stored rounds have been subject to vibration the powder can be crushed to finer, hotter burning particles.
I disassemble a few rounds and see if anything appears to have happened.
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Today's Featured Article - The Nuts and Bolts of Fasteners - Part 2 - by Curtis Von Fange. In our previous article we discussed capscrews, bolts, and nuts along with their relative hardness and thread sizes. In this segment we will finish up on our fasteners and then work with ways to keep them from loosening up in the field. Capscrews, bolts and nuts are not the only means of holding two parts together. When dealing with thinner metals like sheet tin, a long bolt and
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