Ian, different brass, slightly deeper seating, different bullets or primers can all lead to unexpectedly higher pressure signs. So can different powder measures or a scale that got bumped over the years. I've never heard of powder deteriorating where there wasn't an odor or appearance change.
Re-reading you post I get the impression it's loaded rounds. If so, it's not unheard of for bullets and brass to "weld" themselves together in the neck area. And if the stored rounds have been subject to vibration the powder can be crushed to finer, hotter burning particles.
I disassemble a few rounds and see if anything appears to have happened.
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Today's Featured Article - History of the Nuffield Tractor - by Anthony West. The Nuffield tractor story started in early 1945. The British government still reeling from the effects of the war on the economy, approached the Nuffield organization to see if they would design and build an "ALL NEW" British built wheeled tractor, suitable for both British and world farming.
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