Mark, At the time of Gettysburg public opinion in the north may have resulted in the south winning if Lee would have won there. People were tired of a war they thought would only last a few months. Had Lee fallen back toward Washington, leaving skirmishers to slow the Union army his main body could have dug in on key terrain and circumstances would have forced the union Army to attack. And battles like Fredricksberg shows what Lees Army could do in the defence.
Yes the Union did blockade the southern ports and the south was hurting for the material to wage war and the loss of major ports did speed Lee's surrender.
Lee was not a great tactician, his hey diddle diddle right up the middle attack that destroyed Pickets division shows his tactical competence on the offense. But he was a great leader who's troops loved him. After a mojor fight, although tired and with sagging moral they withdrew in good order back to Va. Most other commanders would have lost half of the Army after that to desertions.
In another forgotten blunder of Gettysburg, Mead gave the Army of VA a full days lead before starting after them when Lee withdrew. Had Mead given chase right away he could have trapped Lee and destroyed the Army of Va. That could have forced the south to sign a peace documnet.
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