Posted by tjdub on July 04, 2011 at 23:39:19 from (208.74.246.137):
In Reply to: Beef Prices this fall posted by Keith Molden on July 04, 2011 at 04:41:13:
If history is any indicator, you should do the opposite of what I advise, because I have a knack for selling at the bottom of the cattle market, but anyway, here's how I see it:
US beef herd is decreasing at a brisk pace. The driving factors are high corn price and the devastating drought in TX, OK. $7 corn and $1.00 fat cattle does not compute and rangeland herds don't work without rain. Brood cows are going to slaughter at a very high rate and that probably means solid fat prices for at least 2-3 years.
You've also got some big question marks though. First in foremost is the trade deal that is apparently falling apart between the US and South Korea. Without the South Korea market for US beef, prices will suffer even with the reduced herd. Basically, we need that export market for US beef because even with the reduced herd, we just don't consume that much beef here anymore.
Anyway, I'm predicting (hoping) that we'll have a bottom of feeder prices the $1.35 range and a bottom in fats in the $1.15 range going forward. If h3ll freezes over and China releases their ban on US beef imports, the price goes way up.
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