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Your thoughts on the economy? OT..

M

Mike from cny

Member
Looks pretty grim from my perspective.
Looks like there a few good deals to be had, I've been looking for a 4wd backhoe, but I'm holding off till things look better. So far, I dont think I'll lose my job but you never know.

Last big purchase was a Massey 2200 ind. tractor that was pretty cheap, that was in summer when scrap was high.

Just wondering what everyone elses perspective was on here.
 
My northern scandanavian roots tell me not to do this,but since I'm a farmer and am usually on the loosing end one way or another,at least for today,I'm kind of at the top of the food chain. At least around here. The wife is a nurse,so as long as she has her health,she'll have a job. Whether or not she likes the job she has to take is another story. She loved her job as a home care nurse. Did it for 6 years but got laid off this spring and had to go back to work in a nursing home. As for me,even though the feed situation is a little tight,I have 2 feedlots full of cattle. Fed cattle prices are down a little,but not much from a year ago. Last summer it took 4 fat steers to fill the 1000 gallon diesel tank,one to fill the 300 gallon gas tank. Today I can fill the diesel for 2 steers and the gas for 1/2 a steer or less. So,yea,feels OK to be the one to be doing alright for a change. Knock on wood.
 
I am in Michigan. I have several friends that have gotten laid off in the last couple of months. I think the downturn is getting faster - this thing has developed it's own momentum. It took years for us to develop this problem, I think it will take years to resolve it. I think in 5 years we will be ok. But it will be a different economy, different world than what it is now.
 
I am recently retired from 43 years in the automotive industry in Michigan. Seen some tough times, but nothing like this. We have been in a one state, one industry recession for 3 or 4 years and it will be at least two more before anything gets better. Really glad I'm not dependent on any company for a living now. There'll be a lot of people that may not have that rosy retirement at age 50 they thought they'd get and external_link won't have the resources to save them from themselves. Moral of the story--work hard prepare for hard times and they won't be too bad.
Paul
 
I think and hope that when we see unemployment level off then things can start to improve.
I heard on one show that they suspected many companies were biting the bullet now as far as lay offs. Instead of milking them out over a long time they are just cutting to the number right away.
No one is going to spend any money if they think they are going to lose their job at any time.
And given the fact that all that growth was leveraged on fake realestate values.
Its going to take a long time to dig out of that mess. Even if they some how get all the forclosed houses off the market. All the values are not going to go back up to compinsate for the lost equity that was not real.

Hope we hit bottom soon. I made it past two down sizes in 08. Wont make it past another. No one left to take the buy outs.

All we are doing now is paying off debit.
 
I think we are going to see the effects of running a trade deficit for the better part of 15 years. In the end, the only thing that is going to matter is real currency and we have sent too much out of the country. This is going to make for a long restart of the economy (I would guess for over a decade) as a lot of businesses are going to want a very minimal exposure to debt. This will continue to cause deflationary pressure on things like houses, farmland, commodities, etc..
I really think the federal gov't printing money is only going to put off pain we sooner or later need to face to move on.
Close to home, Eastman Kodak is in the process of letting go of 1500 more employees and is only a shell of what it was a quarter century ago. I don't think this area will ever be as viable as it was when I was coming out of school.
I can't give any predictions, but we might be surprised at who might abandon us internationally if we can't turn this around in a couple years.
 

That is what I feel..it is "changing", but not disastrous..IF they leave the system alone...

Spending the 900 Bazillion $ PLUS the attached 350 Bazillion $ INTEREST is Asinine...

I want to know WHY this great deal to invest in the recovery is not offered to the American People..
I could use that 40% pay-back on an investment...!
How about YOU..??????????
Why do they think they MUST throw $350 Bazillion $ out the window..???? Not to mention the 900 Bazillion $ they feel they need to Bankrupt our kids with...????
There IS NO job shortage...remember, there are 20 Million jobs available, being held by ILLEGAL Aliens....No sweat off our backs, just SEND them BACK...
 
Here are my thoughts:

As long as oil prices and the speculators can keep gas below $2.50/gallon then it will help make ALL other things good.

It would be nice for Propain to come down in price. (lots of greed there)

Consumer demand fuels the economy, hopefully the rich folks will cut back on the import cars and buy an American car, I heard that Honda is going to be having layoffs now.

A little deflation is good, like 2%, it helps reduce house prices for the first time buyers, hurts the home seller though.

As far as the banks go, the loaning of money with no responsiblity has to stop, I just hope that it has for a while. Any respectable bank would not loan 125% of a home value to a person just to make a commision. (real stupid)

In the short term, tax rebate checks will fuel some spending,
Long term, home prices, land prices will (and are) readjusting themselves downward to be affordable.

I just hope that the trade deficit slows and people will stop spending their dollars on Chinese junk.........I try real hard to not buy anything with a "made in China" label. Last week I didnt buy some work gloves at a hardware store because of the China label.

It would be nice for home owners insurance and car insurance to come down in price due to the lower values of homes and the affordablity with competition factor too. I spend $3000/year for my house and 2 cars.----Aint cheap.

In closing-----Buy guns---and Ammo too.

Home security is real important, especially if a major event happens that makes society unstable. Like a terrorist attack, another stock market crash, regional economic collapse--Like in Michigan if GM goes bankrupt.
 
The probable outcome of the stimulus package: It will have little effect on employment but inflation will reach double digit in the next few years. The only hedge I think is, if you have any money, buy something valuable. Hopefully something that will assist you in making a living.
 
I owe money on two things.My outdoor wood burning boiler and the house.I'll use this years tax return to pay off the bioler,then,save everything I can.My job looks to be sound for now,but,you never know.With as little debt as posable things will be better if the job is gone.
 
A couple distant relatives in this area (SW Wis.) are in a bit of a bind now. One was laid off from a logging co. job and another is worried about being too far in debt.
Food pantry is said to be low on food again.
Nearest small town with any business district seemed normal & busy enough today.
Take one day at a time, stay out of the bars most of the time, keep busy & the HOPE is larger forces will right the economy.
 
Here in MI, well hows in the toilet and getting worse sound. Lot of friends laid off from big three and most just starting families. I agree with the others as in 5 yrs or so it will be better, but much slimmer and much less production here.
I dodged the bullit by getting a job in commercial construction insepection. Our budget is good till 2012, then is may be dicey then.
It seems the only thing doing good here is in the AG industry.
 
What this country needs is Politicians that are held accountable. It looks to me like the big corporate officers are smarter then all our high income LEADERS! Just look what they have done with the bailout money. Why couldn't our leaders see this coming? Why can't the money be refunded?
It all boils down to this: Central banks RUN this country and the economy is not going to get any better till the Banks are making money. Why didn't the big oil companies bail out the auto industry?----POLITICS----
 
In the mid 1990's we began sending jobs to China in earnest. Trade debt went thru the roof. How long could that go on? Will those manufacturing jobs ever come back? I doubt it. Saw the Beltway Boys on Fox News this evening. They were criticizing the idea that external_link's infrastructure work will specify using U.S. made steel. They said we should get the cheapest available for more bang for the buck. That's what we've been doing, but that isn't the end of the story, the slow economy attests to that. If we should go for cheaper foreign steel, why not also bring 4 million Chinese here to do the infrastructure jobs that are supposedly going to be created. They work for less, more bang for the buck. I see here in Ohio they want to start teaching courses on "global influence" in school. Will talking about it change anything?
 
If we could "import" 4 million Chinese, I think that would be a great idea, provided they were going to become citizens in due course. I know various orientals who have come here at various times over the last forty years. Their goal is to assimilate. All of them have taken anglicized first names, learned English rapidly and worked their butts off. I think 4 million Chinese would really be a great shot in the arm for the character of our workforce.

Just a thought that came to me from reading the posts.

Christopher
 
A neighbor of mine works at a local hospital. Late last year she was called into a meeting. If GM goes down, virtually every hospital in the state goes bankrupt. They had planning meetings about it.
 
A lot of good points.Heres how I see it.Always before we have been used to things falling apart,but only to a certain level.Construction might stop,but there was still agriculture.Or something a person could find.Agriculture and food processing always were there if there wasnt much of anything else.Somehow this kind of kept things going.Now everything is in a mess,more and more unemployed people.So what holds up agriculture?People have to eat and keep buying food.Now the price for gas,electricity,housing,is so high,and so many people are out of work,its going to hurt agriculture and food production because more and more people cant afford to buy food like they did.Next the price of everything is going to go down.So corn,beans,wheat,hogs,cows,chickens,everything goes lower.Depending on how long this happens and when,it will devastate more of the country.It doesnt matter what a bushel of corn costs,the guy buying it doesnt have enough money.Thats a depression.You cant find people to buy your cows and hogs because they are broke.You cant find a job,(already have that)more and more every day loosing their job,then its going to take a while to get things rolling so there are new jobs created,lots of hungry people would like to buy food now,but dont have any money.States are going bankrupt,so there goes food stamps,and finally the government could go bankrupt,and the whole thing collapses.Buying guns and ammo is a good idea.However if it gets to that,there might not even be a USA once its over,and you wont recognize what it looks like if it does survive.It for sure wont be a bunch of fat white guys setting at a computer like we do,griping about how bad we have it when we aint seen bad yet.Also those rifles and shotguns will get replaced quick with AK47s and whatever else is popular and you can get lots of ammo for it.The young,mean,mad,types will be who gets it.It could be a long time before anybody farms again if ever because its probably going to go nuclear in there somewhere.
 
My brother lives in California says every ship that comes into whatever that harbor is out there has Chinese on it.Some mafia types bring them here and they will work for any money they can get,a dollar an hour,save some of it to send home and bring their family here.They have to pay to get their self here too like 20 thousand dollars.Same as the Mexicans,only costs way more,and lots of them dont make it.Seems they will do about anything to get out of a communist country,and I saw where China is like heaven compared to North Korea.People in North Korea try to escape by going to China.In North Korea they put whole families in prison and work them to death because they dont have enough food to feed their people.I have seen stories like this on 60 Minutes and others.
 
Don't need them. we'll already have all the illegal immigrants that the companies contracted to do the jobs can hire to do the work. Thats just the way it works...
 
I'm just hopping that the average American will learn one big lesson from what is happening.IF YOU HANG ON TO YOUR MONEY LONG ENOUGH , YOU CAN BRING ANY COMPANY OR INSTITUTION TO IT'S KNEES AND FINALLY THEY WILL BE ASKING VERY NICELY WHAT YOU WANT AND HOW MUCH DO YOU WANT TO PAY AND WHEN DO YOU WANT IT??? Seriously , people , we have had this power all along but bowed to sly and misleading marketing professionals who told us what we wanted and what we were going to pay and when we were going to get it!! People will belly-ache cuss and moan about the price and quallity of something but will still sign on the line to buy it even if they don,t have the money. Credit without a large down payment is GONE , as it should be. "PAPER" economy is gone , as it should be! Most all economic growth since the '70s has been a false economy based on "funny money" and a signature. The companies that exist soley because of this will probably go under because there was no "REAL" need for them in the first place. Is it gonna hurt? H@ll yes it is! Any time you are living a lie and get cought , it hurts. I just hope people realize the power they now have and don't fall for the next round of corporate manipulation to pry the $$ out of their tight pockets. These snakes are experts at what they do and we had better be just as shrewd. Our dollars call the shots! they can't get them if we don't let them go. DEMAND BETTER FOR THE NEXT 20 YRS THAN YOU DID THE LAST 20!!!
 
I would agree that things look grim.

My first other thought is that everything you hear and the whole downturn is really based off of fear. Everyone is just afraid and scared. People are scared of loosing their job, scared to spend any money, scared to loose their investments, etc. The media really needs to focus on the real issues in our world, and not keep on with the "economic crisis" reports. Im pretty sure everyone knows things are bad. No need to make folks more paranoid.

This fear was fed by greed, and people trying to make money from nothing. Sub prime lending on homes was just a way of thinking "Ill get interest for a few years, then when they cant pay the higher payment, Ill foreclose on the house, and re-sell it for a profit!". Greed. The people who did that should be put in the stocks in the capital of all 50 states for a week so we can all go give them a piece of our minds. That would do more good than just putting them in jail.

Some folks here mentioned immigration, and I think that the downturn may impact change. Here in the DC area it seems that immigrants get the jobs that no one else wants to do. They didnt take them from someone, they are just willing to do them with no complaints. If the layoffs keep up, there will be more domestic labor available and there will be competition for those previously "undesirable" jobs. Somewhere along the line the manual labor in this country (construction, custodians, etc.) became something that only the immigrants would do, and the folks who were natural born citizens felt was beneath them. It makes no sense. Either do a job and take pride in it, or go get an education so you can do what you want to do. Sitting at home and collecting a check because that stuff is "beneath" you just isnt right. (Im not saying that about anyone here, so please dont think that)

I think we can come out of this downturn stronger than we have been in the past, but we need to get over the division we have here in this country, and get back on a strong course that helps benefit all of us, not just some of us.
 
the economy sucks. got my milk check the other day and only covers 75 percent of my operating costs. I lost about 9 grand a month since november check. hope it dont stay this way for to long or I may have a bunch of machinery for sale.
 
A judgement ? I think it might be. I see no way out until we have a severe depression and it will be years of very slowly working our way back.
 
Hey Gun,

I agree with most all your points, just wander'n bout the land prices adjusting. Farm land is holding steady here but I have not seen any falling sale prices. Timber, hunting, "McRanch" lots, and subdivision land has tanked, but not production ground.

Are you seeing a down trend where you are?

Thanks

Dave

(oh, and I ain't say'n I am stock pile'n but I am buy'n more rounds than the wife and I are shoot'n!!! )
 
From my hill things look better than on TV.

My wife works for an electric utility, I work for a water utility. While car and movie ticket sales my fall, lights and water will be the last things people give up. We are save'n every cent we can (only spurge'n on guns and ammo). By the time we get cut, things are going to be worse than any one can think of.

Only down side is USST cut our tobacco contract by 20% (didn't take long for that to happen, took Clinton a few years to kick us in the sack!!!), and that's the only thing on the farm I made a red cent on this past year. As long as I can raise a little 'baccer to pay the farm bills, even if other crops are worthless, we will not starve. Read some where that it takes 5 acres to suport one person, we got that beat and I'll let the rest grow up before I give food away to be redistubuted.

Dave
 
(quoted from post at 18:39:49 01/31/09) If we could "import" 4 million Chinese.
Click to expand...

Just need to take the teenage kids that are not at the production age yet and shake the sh!t out of them, take away their video games, taylor their clothes, and get their heads back on straight. Then take the adults that are freeloading and seperate them from their kids (not necessarily physically), take care of the kids and only feed/pay the adults IAW what they earn. Pretty sorry when you have to hire foriegn help to get anything done.

Dave
 
I think it's gonna get far worse, I dont think we have anything to look forward to for a long, long time. We need to get the manufactuing jobs back in the USA, companies have to learn to live with modest profit margins, getting greedy for record bottom lines have chased the economy to where it is.
 
I disagree on the immigration issue. A few years ago, we got a large influx on illegal immigrants into our area. It started when Centex and some other out of state builders brought in illegal crews. When the illegals work for $7 an hour, no taxes, no insurance, how can the locals compete? When one gets hurt or sick, they drop the guy off at the local emergency department. Illegals are a source of a lot of our problems in the US.
 
I am not sure about land prices but home prices have dropped like a rock.

Homes that were $250k are now $190k. Land prices that I know of are as follows in most situations. 2-5 acre lots were $35-50k in my area in the late 90's prices moved up to the 45-60K range a few years back and now the prices have turned back to the 30-40k asking range, I am not sure what the selling prices are.

A home on my street sold for $160k with 3 acres or so, small ranch with attached and detached garage, so not a bad price for seller or buyer. I saw a foreclosed home down my road sell for $220k to the bank with 5 acres, Brick Colonial with 2 car att. garage. About a normal price.
I know that my home was appraised for $250k in 2003 for a refinance. I couldnt get $220 now even with large garage, new deck, plus workshop, 10 years old. I may be going to the twnship this year to get the assesment lowered. The tax creep says the home is worth $270k. (not likely in the real world)
 
Homes, while not that high here, have fallowed a trend like that here money wise. They never were that much so a 20k price jump over the last 3 years then a 30k drop the last year has made the percentages look worse.

2 to 5 acre building lots are flat out not selling now. Any lots close to town were snatched up the last 3 years now the ones out in the sticks no one wants because they are scared of the price of gas. (Not going to buy a MccRanch spread if they can"t drive a Suburban 30 miles to work.)

I have been looking for production land to slide a little this winter but they have not. Seen a cattle farm with bad fences, few bins, pole barn shop, and harvestore silo sell for $2000/acre the other day. The only big land that has droped here is timber. Logs ain"t worth much and the city punks who need 200 acres to deer hunt and drink beer on don"t have the funds these days to bid the ground up.

Thanks

Dave
 
I think the economy will get worse before it gets better...if and when it gets better is anybody's guess. I retire next year,will need a job to support my hobbies (eating and old iron), jobs are hard to find. I didn't like the bank and mortgage company bailout; but supported it because I didn't want the devastation that would have happened without it. I don't support the "Stimulus Plan" and think there's WAY too much pork barrel projects tacked to it. I don't know what will bring jobs and stabilize the economy. If I did, I would share it with everyone.

Close friend says "best to let the banks and stock market fail, go down to zero, reset the clock, start over. People have lived beyond their means too long." My father (God Rest His Soul) used to say "what this country needs is a good depression." I don't know, they might be right. I've lived thru recession, living in a recession now, prefer not to experience a depression.

Right now I'm in Korea, wife's in New Mexico. I'm greatful she supports me doing what I do still. The girls are grown, out of college, need little/no support from us. The house, car, and pickup are paid for. We're trying to save what we can. The future and economy don't look good, but we're planning to do the best we can to make it the best we can.
 
Never in my life seen anything as hopeless as our situation. No morals. No conscience. No leaders to lead. Only greed and corruption. Sorry but you asked. If no repentance in this country, maybe no USA. Hope I am wrong and will apologize if necessary. Sorry but you asked for it. Dave
 
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