O.T. Weather guessers

thurlow

Well-known Member
Local TV meterologist.....all the schooling, all the initials after his name, 'dean' of local forecasters.....missed yesterday's high by 15 degrees; predicted 69; it got all the way to 54. You think he mentioned how bad he was 'off' last night? Is there any other profession that would countenance such incompetence?
 
Thats the thing even with all the tools they have to guess what the weather will do its just that a good guess when there lucky. Mother nature does not play by mans rules so she can and will do as she wants when she wants and the weather man can only take a good guess plus 99% of the time they use the national weather to guess as to what will happen
 
Yeah, where else could you be so far wrong most of the time and still keep your job.

Seems like the fancier they get their radars and such, the more wrong they are.


Gene
 
Most accurate, by far, in our area is just a "guy". He's a railroad locomotive engineer who has always been interested in weather, and is self taught. Started doing his own weather forecasting about 25 years ago, and went to the local radio station and made them a sportin' proposition- "I'll write out my weather forecast each morning, and you watch how I do compared to your present 'official' forecast. If I do better, how about hiring me as your forecaster?" Turned out he was much more accurate, so they hired him, and he has been doing the local forecast for many years now.

One thing different that he does, is acknowledge possible competing weather systems that may take over if conditions develope differently than he prognosticates. So at least if he's wrong, you know why.
 
I heard many years ago that if you took all the weather forecaster changes them with all the economic forecasters They would still have the same degree of accuracy 50/50.
The biggest problem with today's weather forecasters is that they always want one up the guy on the other channel. Sometimes it works and they get praise for it, most of the time it doesn't work and he say's "Well its not a complete science you know."

Walt
 
Come to think about it, but isn't external_link calling in the economic people to help forecast the next 4 years. Boy we could be in bad shape or good depending on witch one he goes with.
Walt
 
For years a group of us guys went fishing in Canada. One of the fishing guides was a native-Canadian with the nickname of "Chief". Every time we arrived, we would ask Chief what the weather was going to be, and he was always 100% accurate.
Then one year we got there and asked Chief about the weather and he said "Don"t know". I said "How can you say that? You have always been so good at telling us the weather?"
He looked at me and said "Radio broke".
 
I remember a few years back there was a "weather gypsie" on one of the Topeka, KS, stations. He was NEVER even close to guessing right. He finally ended up leaving. His reason: "The weather here doesn't "agree" with me".

He ended up on the weather channel....
 
Whenever this subject comes up it always reminds me of the old sitcom “WKRP in Cincinnati” and Les Nessmans eyewitness weather. Les just looked out the window and told them what it was doing outside! Best forecast you can get.
 
The leading forecaster in our area, the one even the newspapers look up to, can take 15 minutes to say, "It might rain tonight, and then again it might not".

The classic was in Michigan a couple of years ago when a male forecaster forecast 8" of snow one evening. They didn't even get one snowflake. The next evening the female anchor, without thinking, asked, "Well, Bob, where's the eight inches you promised me last night?"

The whole set was shut down for ten minutes till everyone composed themselves again.
 
I loved Les and want to be just like him when I grow up. Re-runs are running on TVLand or AmericanTV or one of those stations. Johnny was 'the man' and I always thought Bailey was prettier than Jennifer...........
 
Here is a great web sit for local reporting, not forcasting. You can find someone that lives up wind from you. Go to maps first, then View Data.
If you need help my E-mail is open. I give a report every day about 7:00 am.
cocoRaHS.org
I'm in CO, Gilpin County, My station number is CO-GL-13, and station name is Black Hawk 3.8E.
 
Tell me about it. Sunday night they said it would drop to 21 degrees,sky would clear out within an hour. Monday would be clear and warm. So I went out in the dark,drained some pipes,made plans to chop corn stalks the next day. Temp was 31 the next morning,cloudy all night and all day.
 
As the others have mentioned, about every level government seems to tolerate blunders far worse than even the 'ol weatherman can produce............

In regards to joke about the Indian forecast, there was a piece in a local paper a few years ago that compared the accuracy of the a resident native Indian to that of the local weather station............I dont recall the actual numbers BUT the Indians' sucess rate was around 20 to 30% higher than the "trained professionals"....................
 
As others have mentioned lawyer, docter, broker, economic analyst,political analyst (anything politics) and social workers. I include bankers as well with the recent bailouts (Financial corporations apparently no longer have to be make any financial sense). Some of the people I run into makes me wonder if anyone does their job.
 

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