Guesses on fertilizer prices?

E.B. Haymakin' · Oct 15, 2008

Do any of you on here think that we will see any moderation of fertilizer prices in the spring? If fuel prices come down don"t you think that might ease up on production costs/transportation of fertilizer?
Around the Mobile area the average price of 50lbs 13-13-13 is $20 to $22. This past spring you could get it for about $12. Any guesses or hard information on where pricing will go from here?

rrlund · Oct 15, 2008

IF oil prices stay down and fertilizer prices don't follow,somebody had d@mned well better have a good explaination why.

bradley martin · Oct 15, 2008

Wholesale prices have already fallen significantly...as like 40% on urea. However, retailers have not responded, likely because of higher priced product sitting in their sheds that they don't want to eat!! Eventually, competition should have retail prices falling significantly but don't bet on it until spring.

paul · Oct 15, 2008

Fertilizer prices should fall.

HOWEVER.

Many ag places already locked in fert prices, and really can't do much about it - they will have fert, but the price is set - not much they can do about it.

A lot of fert comes from Canada, where they have a bit of an OPEC-type cartel on the price of fert; and have a labor issue, and are willing to shut down to let supplies match demand to keep prices up.

Most N comes from overseas these days, and so takes a long time to get here. If we don't order any thing fall, will we have any available at all in spring if _everyone_ lines up then to get it? Did wholesalers order enough then, if we didn't buy any now like 'normal'?

The world ecconomy is in a lot of flux, hard to say where prices of anything will be 6 months from now.

China & the rest of Indonesia has really ramped up their fertilizer use, and at lower prices may buy a lot more than normal - might not leave much available for USA.

So, the simple answer is that fertilizer should end up lower priced in spring.

The difficult question is, will there be any vailable to buy at that time?

--->Paul

INCase · Oct 15, 2008

You could try non-chemical fertilizers like AGGRAND liquid. You can get it by the quart or by the 275 gallon "tote".

They don't fluctuate in price as much (everything has gone up). Its also better for the soil ect ect.
AGGRAND index

Dave from MN · Oct 15, 2008

I used to sell my chicken manure for $1500-$1600 FOR THE WHOLE ANNUAL CLEAN OUT. 250+ TONS. Many are getting bids on their manure now for $40+ a ton. Wow. I am gonna spread 2.5-3 tons per acre on all my bean and corn ground this coming spring and sell the remainder. I am composting my cow manure for the winter as well to get hopefully kill the weed seeds and rot it up so I can just disc it in. I dont want to have to plow to incorperate it.

IaGary · Oct 15, 2008

Because the fertilizer dealers had to buy 3 months ago and can't sell for a loss.

Look for fertilizer to fall a year from now.

And by then fuel may be back up.

How much has the food gone down in price now that corn and wheat have come down?

Ethanol got blamed for high food. Ethanol has come down, so has corn. The ethanol industry has asked for an investgation as to why food is still high. Food industry blamed the up on ethanol so where is the down.

Gary

Anonymous-0 · Oct 15, 2008

Sign I saw in the bidding office of a factory...

"Price is not related to cost."

Yes, some price elements are related to costs in how much competitors all have to spend to make a given product. Thats where anti-trust is good to ensure a vibrant market with many players willing to compete on price as they drive their costs down. More people who are willing to blink over it.

But in the end, the price is what the market will bear.

billonthefarm · Oct 15, 2008

I've had this talk with my fertilizer dealer twice in the last two months. The first time he hinted that things could change before spring. The second time just last week, after I did some research and asked some questions he said that right now his corporate bosses are worried that they have no home for all of this high priced fertilizer they piled up. They bought ahead trying to do the right thing and the market has softened significantly and he believes they will continue to fall. They are guessing / concerned / worried that as a group the farmers will sit on their wallets and wait them out and the only way to move this fertilizer is to take a loss and move it out to get cheaper stuff in. I would like to see fertilzer drop but only time will tell.
bill

Anonymous-0 · Oct 16, 2008

I hope they have to eat it..It looks like every company saw how the oil companies were making large profits and they wanted on band wagon...GREED

MAY GOD BLESS THE USA

Guesses on fertilizer prices?

E.B. Haymakin'

Member

rrlund

Well-known Member

bradley martin

Well-known Member

paul

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INCase

Well-known Member

Dave from MN

Well-known Member

IaGary

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Anonymous-0

Well-known Member

billonthefarm

Member

Anonymous-0

Well-known Member

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