Crop Prices

I am curious to know everybody"s opinion on what soybean and corn prices will do for the rest of the year. Should we be storing or selling?

Thanks,
TJH72

I think we should have a short run up in prices this winter. Beans especially should go up, there will be less than they think are out here. With fert & seed & all still high priced, corn will need to come up in price or less will be grown. So I'm thinking there will be a rally, but not like the past 2 years.

However, if the world ecconomy goes really really bad, and the Asian Pasific countries get sucked down, then all bets are off.....

Lot of uncertainy.

--->Paul

Well, let's look at it this way. If you look at the stocks of big agricultural players: Agrium (fertilizer), Deere (equipment), Monsanto (seed & chemical), you will see they have taken a major major hit over the last 4-5 months. Agrium has dropped from $110 to $37 as you can see above. Ok, sure, most stocks have dropped as we well know, but while the world has been watching bank stocks drop like a rock, no one has noticed that ag stocks have also dropped to 50% if not to 33% of their June value. This implies they are dropping much faster than the rest of the market (the stock market is still at 75% of where it was at in June).

So, what does this mean? Dunno for sure. However, I've been reading more and more trading notes for the above companies that mention "overinflated commodity prices" and "farm commodity price bubble." Makes a guy wonder what the "street" knows that we don't. Or maybe a better question is "what is the "street" planning?"!

What is also scary is the days when commodity prices will go limit down (or limit up), there usually is a lack of fundamental "agricultural" reasons for such wild moves. This tells me that investors and hedgers have a lot of money commodities (and there always will be and it isn't always a bad thing to have some of the messing around with futures for liquidity sake). And the day they decide farm commodities are no longer a good investment, the money will flow out like water flowing out of a tipped over bucket.

So to answer your question, it's anyone's guess. I'm starting to lean toward cashing out given all the craziness. I wish you the best of luck.

With a big chunk of the fund money out of the market I don't think anything between now and the end of the year will drive prices up to early summer levels. The Oct report comes out in about 7 hours, we will all know more then. If USDA drops that 152.3 and 40 even guess, we may see a run back up to break even levels. Cash prices here yesterday, 3.85 and 9.29 at Peavey and 4.02 at Tyson.

As to your question, if I knew the best time to sell I wouldn't be working at the water factory tonight.

Good luck.

Dave

A lot depends on carryover from last year. If not much, that eliminates one factor to keep prices down.