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Random thought

grandpa Love

grandpa Love

Well-known Member
Maybe we don't have a shortage of anything. Maybe there isn't a truck driver shortage. Maybe they are delivering the same volume of goods as they have the last 4-6 years. BUT, consumers are buying more, using more, wanting more , hoarding more. So it appears to be shortages, but in reality it's the media over hyping stuff as usual, adding to the problem.
 
Gp.
You might be right.
I was thinking of getting on the road again. Camping at Holliday Inn Express and eating next to a fire at Crackerbarrel.
All the national parks I wanted to see are at record highs. So I'm stayed home.
 
I heard a report recently that agrees with this. The report said that the backlog at the ports was not a result of reduced labor force or capacity to move product as much as that there was more volume moving through the system. Maybe, maybe not.
 
As we moved from being a social group of folk that go out and mingle, to a group that stays home and orders online dont even go to stores any more, I think our buying patterns changed a lot.

So it is all part of the big picture.

We still have some really bad govt planning, or the planning was not to help we the people.

Paul
 
How is it the ports in LA can be magically "ordered" to go to 24/7 operations??

Supposedly there is a labor shortage.

Supposedly they can go to 24/7 in a week or two, just like that?

I bet the ports are not getting any more containers out of the port now vs going to 24/7. They just spread the same amount of port workers into three shifts and still only offloading at the same volume per day.

Truckers say they wait for days before being loaded.
But we are still told there is a shortage of trucks.
 
I see several factors mentioned in the other responses and my bet is that to some extent they are all part of the issue, with the media hype not helping matters at all.
 
Per a post on another forum:

"In the November 2021 issue of TRAINS magazine, {there is] an article on the supply-chain logjam, and included was an aerial shot (page 19) of a BNSF intermodal yard in Ellwood, Illinois, outside of Chicago. Two tracks had been taken out of service in order to store international containers on them. Picture 40' containers stacked three high, sitting at a 90-degree angle across these two tracks. Now picture this triple stack stretching the entire length of a typical doublestack train. As in, you can't even make out the end of this lineup even in a drone photo.

"That's a lot of containers. All full of product waiting to be picked up and delivered. And it's going on all across the country. Not hard to imagine a whole lot of pre-orders are stuck in this limbo."
 
Interstate 80 goes past a mile south of my house, as the crow flies.

When you watch the solid stream of semis going past, it's hard to believe there is a truck shortage.
 
I don't listen to MSM anymore. At best, you'll get a one sided, exagerated, and then heavily edited story from them. It's so bad, that they have gotten to where most of the time they will show you a non-live muted video clip of someone speaking, while telling you what they said, or what they want you to hear I guess I should say.
If I want to get to the bottom of something anymore, I just goggle and research it myself. And even then, you got to sift through the BS and dig really deep to find the real story, because now Big Tech is on board. There are still a few places on the net that are letting freedom of speech fly.
 
The more posts and replies I read here on the forum, the more I believe all of the info below to be absolutely true ....

Paranoia is an instinct or thought process that is believed to be heavily influenced by anxiety or fear, often to the point of delusion and irrationality. Paranoid thinking typically includes persecutory beliefs, or beliefs of conspiracy concerning a perceived threat towards oneself or society. Paranoia is distinct from phobias, which also involve irrational fear, but usually attach no blame. Making false accusations and the general distrust of other people or organizations frequently accompany paranoia. For example, a paranoid person might believe an incident was intentional when many people would view it as an accident or coincidence.
 
Somewhere around 40 years ago a thing called Just in Time, delivery or JIT, started taking ahold in the manufacturing and retail world. What it amounted to was to order sales stock or mfg. components JIT to stock shelves or build products with a bare minimum of warehousing. The practice of trying to order just barely what one intended to sell, or use to build things, kept inventory's low, hence, lower space needed for storage, less tax paid on stock on hand, and less interest to pay on $ borrowed to use for business.

Anyone in the trucking business is likely aware that come the end of the fiscal year, everyone wants their stuff shipped out by the end of the year and nobody wants to receive much freight before the new business year starts. This always led to a trailer shortage in the common carrier end of trucking every year, at least during my tenure. I'd say with the entire global economy practicing JIT in some form, to some degree, with lots of people being at home and ordering things online rather than shopping at centrally located big box stores, etc, the bottleneck started with that phenomena and snowballed from there.

It isn't hard to imagine if you give it some thought. The world's delivery system is set up to deliver just what people want, just in time for when they want it, and when demand makes an unprecedented leap that no one expected, coupled with the nnalert induced labor shortage, it's kind of like slugging a combine. I expect that when demand is sated shortages will fade away. gm
 
Somewhere around 40 years ago a thing called Just in Time, delivery or JIT, started taking ahold in the manufacturing and retail world. What it amounted to was to order sales stock or mfg. components JIT to stock shelves or build products with a bare minimum of warehousing. The practice of trying to order just barely what one intended to sell, or use to build things, kept inventory's low, hence, lower space needed for storage, less tax paid on stock on hand, and less interest to pay on $ borrowed to use for business.

Anyone in the trucking business is likely aware that come the end of the fiscal year, everyone wants their stuff shipped out by the end of the year and nobody wants to receive much freight before the new business year starts. This always led to a trailer shortage in the common carrier end of trucking every year, at least during my tenure. I'd say with the entire global economy practicing JIT in some form, to some degree, with lots of people being at home and ordering things online rather than shopping at centrally located big box stores, etc, the bottleneck started with that phenomena and snowballed from there.

It isn't hard to imagine if you give it some thought. The world's delivery system is set up to deliver just what people want, just in time for when they want it, and when demand makes an unprecedented leap that no one expected, coupled with the nnalert induced labor shortage, it's kind of like slugging a combine. I expect that when demand is sated shortages will fade away. gm
 
Good times both business and govt are looking ahead and planning for the accidents or coincidences in the next decade and can work through or around them. With that good planning.

When business starts looking inward at the short term, and govt also starts spending down the future for present gain.....

Then we get in trouble.

I think we are in trouble.

Many of these types of problems, like the transportation problem, have many interconnected problems that develop over time.

Some were caused by decisions made 5-10 years ago, and those problems finally are rearing their heads, on top of other coincidences.

Getting out of these problems now will take a long time, and offer hardship to many along the way.

I am a simple farmer and clearly not able to salve, or understand the big picture interaction of all the many parts that go into this.

However, looking at the merger solutions offered by go t and business, and looking at roadblocks also on the horizon offered by business and govt, I dont see anything getting better. I might not be able to do better myself; but I can do simple math and see the ongoing situation getting worse, not better with what is proposed.

Think of me what you will, that is not important to me.

Paul
 
Our next big problem is food.

Farmers in the USA ended up with a pretty good year. But fuel, fertilizer, herbicide, and iron costs are up or headed up 35-300% higher than last year.

Several products are out of supply, and we dont know that any will be available for spring?

That is not sustainable.

We grow a 2022 crop to feed critters in 2023, for those of us in the USA and many other parts of the world to eat in 2024.

Business and govt will say everything is fine, and it will be for 2 years. We have that planning and excess and buffer to depend on.

But if no one fixes the problems going on, what are we going to eat in 2024, 2025? And beyond, if no one cares today, no one leads us to better.

We sow the seeds of our future. We need good people in charge to make a solid, dependable, safe, smooth future.

Hang on, we are not seeing a very good set of plans anywhere, business or govt.......

IMHO.

Im not caring much about politics or business here, who is in or who is out. What I care about is that we have good planners in charge that understand and look to good outcomes, not cash in the future for today, or use up the future to make a good virtual signal for themselves.

Paul
 
Many aspects to the story, lots of theories, lies from the media and government.

The empty shelves are proof something is happening. The retailers don't like that, so there is a supply problem.

Geography says everything from the Eastern countries comes to our west coast. Too many rules, taxes, gov intervention, greed, you name it, hoops to jump through to get it on a truck and outta there!

There may be a degree of hoarding, but that has it's limits. The stimulus checks, combined with the rent moratorium would have had a short term effect.

One thing for sure, we are being manipulated. We can be part of the problem or part of the solution.

But blessed are your eyes because they see, and your ears because they hear.
 
A person that had predicted 3 years ago all the events that had happened in the last 3 years up until today would have been considered a quack paranoid crazy by the vast majority of other people.So much for the accuracy of Group Think.
 
I saw a chart yesterday that showed the imbalance has grown quite large Again. But, I dont always know what or who to believe either I guess! :)

Im trying hard to hope and look for solutions and people that have workable solutions, rather than always living in the past and just blaming folk. That too is difficult to do, but I try.

Paul
 
You might be right I've said before that so called modern agriculture will instead of feeding the World will lead to mass starvation.It cannot be substained relies on too much outside inputs and money to operate.
 
Over production is still a much bigger problem for US farms than under production. Output per acre keeps increasing. Large scale farms have an economy of scale that small farms can not match. As long as everyone and his brother wants to farm, farm inputs keep getting bid higher and higher. Very little cropland ever remains fallow unless the government pays big money to take it out of production. I don't see US farm output changing unless commodity prices and farm income drop so far that even the big guys want out. Few ag state politicians are wiling to let that happen.
 
TF, can you just imagine the nut job claiming that 3 years ago??? It wouldn't even have been a believable movie!!
 
Double 7 you hit the nail on the head. I
couldn't figure that one out either. If
you don't have enough workers for one
shift how you gonna find enough for 3
shifts?
 
After reading all the comments below I have a question. Please be specific. What exactly do you want Gov't to do? Do you expect congressman so and so to jump on a forklift?
 
People were paid to stay home for months,they bought things online. China was shut down more than once too.The biggest part of the world same as quit working and when they came back there was nothing left in the pipeline to start building anything again. If you can get the government,state and federal, out of the way this mess will be fixed in 6 months. Right now I figure 4 years unless we go cashless, then the country is lost. The USSR only dreamed of the control the government will have with a digital money.
 
I have read this topic multiple times, and was hesitant to respond but I am gonna try. About a dozen years ago locally many area residents were faced with an action by seven multiple local governments to jointly govern and control an area between 3 fairly large cities. Many citizens stood up and opposed it, as we did. We stumbled across a word that we had never heard, and it described perfectly what was being attempted here. In some of my reading over the last few months I have seen the word used several times to explain our current situation. If I may I suggest some of yall research corporatism.
 
Recently drove from near Davenport IA to Iowa City IA for Drs appt. Started counting east bound tractor trailers we were meeting on I-80. 450 were lots of trucks in little less than an hour's drive. On I-80 its 24 hours of trucks
 
Yes and there is no end in sight and the news sites seem to be exploding.....anything for sensationalism, anything to get people all stirred up. Somebody has a very large advertising budget and they are cashing in on it. Not sure the Founding Fathers did the right thing with the First Amendment!
 
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