RE : The Future of Farming

The original topic is drifting to the bottom half of page 2 so since there is interest in discussing it I will address the recent post by Oldtanker and go from there. Nobody is talking about specifically excluding anybody but you have to admit that during the early 1980's which would be considered the beginning of modern crop insurance the 10,000 acre plus mega farms did not exist. Other than wheat and cattle country most areas looked at 1000 acres as the mark to shoot for then. I am saying that if someone wants to be a mega-BTO that once he (or she) achieves a certain acreage level they should shoulder an increasing amount of their crop insurance needs. If guy wants to come in and run 20,000 acres with several investors let them carry the burden of risk in terms of paying creditors and making the profits.

I think govt. Policies are encouraging the ultra BTOs at the expense of the small giy. Its alot easier to control a few btos then hundreds of small guys.

I don't think that it is about controlling any one group of people. I simply believe it is the law of unintended consequences. Something done in the early 1980's to shore
the "family farm" got forgotten about for a couple of generations and now is a tool of big business.

A little bit of both I guess.

Business getting bigger is a natural progression. I could lay down in front of the biggest vertical till machine out there and wouldn?t stop progress, only become fertilizer.....

But I agree govt policy has greatly a+celebrated the bto mentality.

Crop insurance was written by bankers and insurance companies. The insurance subsidy makes more stability in farming; so bankers can loan bigger loans. Stability allows rent bids to go higher, to bigger operators. And so on.

Even the willie Nelson fund raisers and the back to organic types and the eco friendly groups end up getting laws passed that help big operations more than mid and small opertaions, and also end up doing away with the typical famly farm. Ironic.

Paul

(quoted from post at 12:54:38 10/02/18) The original topic is drifting to the bottom half of page 2 so since there is interest in discussing it I will address the recent post by Oldtanker and go from there. Nobody is talking about specifically excluding anybody but you have to admit that during the early 1980's which would be considered the beginning of modern crop insurance the 10,000 acre plus mega farms did not exist. Other than wheat and cattle country most areas looked at 1000 acres as the mark to shoot for then. I am saying that if someone wants to be a mega-BTO that once he (or she) achieves a certain acreage level they should shoulder an increasing amount of their crop insurance needs. If guy wants to come in and run 20,000 acres with several investors let them carry the burden of risk in terms of paying creditors and making the profits.

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LOL man are you off on this. In the early 70's I worked on a couple of farms. The small one was 2500 acres. The big one was 28,000. Just how big was the King ranch? 800,000 to 1 million acres? It's true that many areas back then had folks farming 120-160 or so that are now gone. It ain't coming back. It ain't the BTO's who caused this either. Yes they took advantage but they didn't cause it.

Several factors came into play. One was the farm crisis of the 80's that saw an end to someone making an OK living with 160 and 30 cows. Now a farmers kids had no option but to move on as the farm wasn't big enough to support 2 families. 20 years later dad wanted to retire and JR had a good job in town and wasn't giving it up. So dad sold out. Who was there at the time with the financial wherewithal to pick up that small farm? Or they rented it out and who was there with cash in hand? And those who rented the land out are now dying. JR no longer has any draw to the land so it goes on the market. That's exactly what we are seeing in our area. And who has the financial backing to buy those properties up? Not the little guy. Only the BTO's can do that. One in particular here is doing that right now. Trouble is he's a very nice guy.

Add in peoples basic wants and desires. They wanted a nice house, nice car/truck, nice stuff like furniture and TV's. They couldn't have that on 160 acres. So that made it time to get a job and rent out or sell off the land.

NO! Everyone large and small deserves equal treatment! If they can't make it so be it. When you start giving all businesses large and small government subsidized insurance against failure then come back and talk to me. Heck when they started those programs way back then there were large farms. Just a lot of areas didn't have large farms.

Rick

I suspect some of the state and local laws intended to protect local farmers could backfire as more multinational farms move in.

Much like screaming babies, barking dogs, loud music and unsightly trash are just fine when they are your own, they become annoyances when they belong to are someone else. When even larger equipment owned by foreign owned farms start tearing up our roads, when new chemicals start showing up in our own wells, when chemical drift kills our own trees and gardens, and when foreign corporations lay off all their local workers to bring in "skilled workers" from the home country and teaches them how to apply for county aid, I think some of the farm tax breaks and deregulation won't seem like such a good idea anymore.

I don't know that we need a bunch of laws especially on a local level. A local law for say noise as an example should not favor one farmer over another. I just see the crop insurance program as broke. No longer serving its original intent which was to shore up the rural social structure. I'm not a bleeding heart abundant but I don't like the direction things are heading.

Rick, the way you talk you would think I was trying to implement some Stalinist program to make people stay on the farm who do not want to be there. I am just noting
that the playing field is getting very tipped and would like to level it for everybody that wants to stay in business. Might be good for businesses that don't put a crop in
the ground such as machinery builders as well. From what I have seen at least in my area is that BTO's are pretty fickle when it comes to new equipment. A number
brag about running the wheels off of what they have. I heard of one dairyman running an IH 806 for 100,000 hours and this was darn near 20 years back. I would
imagine it had a wrench on it a time or two but the owner was going to squeeze every pound of work that he could get out of it. Point is if I am Deere, CNH, etc. I don't
know that I can count on the BTO to buy at a certain level to keep my factory open. Marking up remaining units coming out of a factory to this point has worked but at
what point do you reach critical mass where the doors can't stay open.

I'm for abolishing crop insurance and all farm welfare programs and make farming a true free enterprise just like other businesses.Then the smartest,most efficient,toughest,etc will survive and
the others can go do something else for a living.

And let food prices triple to cover the actual cost of farming ?

A lot of people dont appreciate what they have until its gone, hindsights 20/20, but we are always looking forward. Its a sign of the times.

King ranch is still over 800,000 acres and at one
time they had ranches on every continent except
Antarctica and Asia . Mr king bought a land grant
and built the place with hard work

What do you have to back up something like that?Free enterprise and free markets bring lower prices and more efficient production.Gov't handouts and support only help keep the poor managers and efficient in business.Taxpayers are paying way more for their food now than what the price in the supermarket once the cost of Farm welfare is figured in.

Should be inefficient

NY, even way back when the playing field wasn't level. One guy had dry rocky ground and had to struggle while the next had river bottom and did well. You think some guy in TX on 160 acres and 10 cows to sell did as well as King?

Now out my way machinery sales are off but I travel I94 from St Cloud MN to Fargo ND pretty often. Can't get out there without seeing 500HP quad track tractor painted green and yellow heading west and ones painted red or blue heading east. Combines too.

So someone is buying. So some obscure part that they sell one of every year or so isn't going to keep the doors open. More and more of those parts are going to become NLA. They ain't going back into production.

SV, that ain't gonna cause the cost of food to go up. Not as long as overproduction keeps going on. And the way farmers are acting today? One fails someone else will pick up that land and continue over producing thereby keeping it a buyers market and keeping the cost of food low. SO no worries there.

Rick

Many times when a farmer dies today there are folks trying to buy and get land he had rented before he is buried,no shortage of people that are waiting to try their hand at farming or looking for more land to farm.The "Everyone is going to starve" stuff is just a bunch of Hot Air.

Another major factor that has driven the smaller and medium sized operations out these last few years was artificially low interest rates caused by central bank money printing. All large land owner got a huge tidal wave of equity out of no where and then could use that to borrow against to expand. As interest rates rise, the playing field will be more level. Many farms today got there start in the late 80's. That was a time when the BTO could not vacuum up all the opportunities out there, in fact many had to right size making opportunity available for others. Here hoping we see that again soon.

traditional farmer, how many ac of corn a d beans do you have out this year?

(quoted from post at 17:41:57 10/02/18) A lot of people dont appreciate what they have until its gone, hindsights 20/20, but we are always looking forward. Its a sign of the times.

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Sign of the times? Heck you were starting to see this trend back in the 70's. Back then kids were starting to flee the farm because they had already been worked half to death by dad who saw JR as cheap labor. And no, not every farmer did that. But some sure did. I saw the kids who wanted nothing more to do with that farm. What they remember still today was not having to nickles to rub together and hard work while the town kids might mow lawn of shovel snow, got an allowance but most important had time to be a kids. I was very aware of this because as a 16 year old I wanted nothing more than to be on the farm (new experience to me then) and they wanted nothing more than to run away. Heck, wife's own aunt and uncle went through this. In 72 when I met my wife they were BTO's of the time. 40 cow milking and 360 acres. none of the kids wanted to stay. They are in their 80's now. None of the kids wanted to farm. They sold the land out about 15 years ago.

Now that's where i disagree with TF. All the people who would have liked to have had that land and the buildings? The non farmers who wanted in were the ones who didn't have the financial backing. The BTO's were the ones poised to snap that land up and did. All they needed was the money to buy the land. They already had the equipment. When you live in town and the only collateral you have is whatever part of the house you live in that's paid for it's hard to get a bank to go for acreage plus equipment, plus livestock plus several years operating expenses. And then the person balks at the repayment rate and monthly payments. The bank is going to insist on new equipment. They don't want you back after 1 year trying to get 20K to repair a tractor that blew ans engine. Or trying to borrow more cause you can't get the parts for something. But the most important 2 things the banks want is a WORKABLE business plan and someone running things that knows what they are doing. And that really is the big thing that keeps wannabe farmers in town. Lack of experience.

So I don't expect to see the late 80's repeat itself soon. In the late 80's there were a lot of people who knew how to farm running around out there. Today there are a lot of folks with desire but few with the knowledge. The banks here are not going with that.

Rick

Not the way it works in my area in farming areas where the price of land isn't priced by developers farms sell pretty brisk to other people wanting to farm usually at what I'd call premium prices.Small farming is alive and well in central and eastern VA we have 10 or more good sale barns to take cattle,sheep,goats etc.The grain growers get a premium over midwest growers because of all the chicken and hog confinement operations use up more grain than is grown in the area.The big growth area is the direct farm to consumer sales selling vegetables,fruit,grapes,berries,meat.There are a lot of well off people here that want fresh off the farm food and want to buy locally and price is way down on their list of concerns.
Plus the Amish are moving into Southern VA from up North so that is adding even more vitality to the farming situation.The good part is here the terrain and situations severely limit how any BTO
can operate as I've never heard of a BTO at a farmers market(LOL)

I'm smart enough to stay out of growing a low value,low (no?) profit crop where the supply already exceeds demand so prices will be going even lower.My meat goats on the other hand are very
profitable without a Gov't handout.Question for you how much grain could you grow on your own without the Gov't and their TAXPAYER funded Farm Welfare programs? Looks like not only is my farming operation on
its own my tax money is supporting yours too.

meant to western not eastern VA

OK let me clarify. When I say farm as such I'm referring to someone who say is going to buy 300-500 acres, raise beef or milk cows. Someone who is going to have to barrow to buy the land, make improvements on existing building or erect new. Someone who is going to have to have equipment to raise hay and grains for animal feed. Something full time as an only source of income, maybe the spouse with a day job in town for medical bennies (kinda popular here). Someone who is going to new several years at the start of operating expenses.

Not referring to someone taking a home mortgage on a small farm and hobby farming. And even that we are not seeing to much of in this area. Really too far out in the sticks to make farmers markets work well here. A guy would have to find a market much closer to the cities. Most of the folks doing that here are semi retirees supplementing retirement income.

Rick

That is where farming is changing, the profitable farms are going to be near populated areas.A fellow bought a chisel plow from me back in the Spring that used to dairy farm.He and his son quit that and now grow vegetables and grass fed beef, he sells locally which includes the Wash DC area.Told me they are doing a whole lot better now than when they were milking cows.
He and his son(in his late 20's) do this full time.Of course I'd imagine he'd already had the farm paid for but still pretty impressive.Checked the price of vegetables in the grocery store lately? There is a whole lot of room price wise for local grown with better/fresher to come in under those prices.Last time I was in Kroger with the wife they had apples for $1.99 to
$2.99 lb.That is $120 to $180 a bushel! Any orchard that can get 1/3 of those prices for their apples is going to be in the money.No wonder direct from farm sales are taking off not only
the consumer getting fresher produce but a whole lot cheaper too.

(quoted from post at 05:45:19 10/03/18) That is where farming is changing, the profitable farms are going to be near populated areas.A fellow bought a chisel plow from me back in the Spring that used to dairy farm.He and his son quit that and now grow vegetables and grass fed beef, he sells locally which includes the Wash DC area.Told me they are doing a whole lot better now than when they were milking cows.
He and his son(in his late 20's) do this full time.Of course I'd imagine he'd already had the farm paid for but still pretty impressive.Checked the price of vegetables in the grocery store lately? There is a whole lot of room price wise for local grown with better/fresher to come in under those prices.Last time I was in Kroger with the wife they had apples for $1.99 to
$2.99 lb.That is $120 to $180 a bushel! Any orchard that can get 1/3 of those prices for their apples is going to be in the money.No wonder direct from farm sales are taking off not only
the consumer getting fresher produce but a whole lot cheaper too.

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Guy that hangs out on the N and Ford boards does that. He ain't making a killing but he's doing OK.

I was referring to people who want to farm but don't want to radically change income levels unless it's upward. You don't start out raising a few veggies and selling at a farmers market if you already have a decent income by changing careers and want it to go up and have farming as a full time career.

Rick

How do you make money on 6$ barley and 3$ diesel fuel and 24$ seed and you still haven?t watered it yet you haven?t drilled it yet and you haven?t combined it yet or trucked it to town ?

1st step would be to lower the numbers of acres planted to reduce production causing demand to rise........


Rick

(quoted from post at 14:52:19 10/03/18) How do you make money on 6$ barley and 3$ diesel fuel and 24$ seed and you still haven?t watered it yet you haven?t drilled it yet and you haven?t combined it yet or trucked it to town ?

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OK according the the AG folks in ND the average cost per acre for barley is about 120 to 130 dollars per acre including harvesting and average yields is 50 BPA. So 300 dollars per acre return before costs. How isn't that profitable.

And according to the latest info......diesel would be a 1.30 a gallon cheaper if they would take the bean oil out of it....... :shock:

Rick