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The Future Of Farming

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Vicinalvictor

Well-known Member
I'm beginning to wonder if the larger corporation or LLC farms are on their way out in this country. Low prices, high cost of production, immigration issues, etc. I see several large farms around me that are struggling, everything from bean & corn to fruits & vegetables. Where do you think the future of farming is headed in this country?
 
There's two kinds who won't survive this current downturn. The BTOs who grew too fast and don't have equity,and the older,established guys who didn't take advantage of the good years to upgrade buildings and equipment when times were good. It's more about financial condition than size.
 
(quoted from post at 09:22:47 10/01/18) I'm beginning to wonder if the larger corporation or LLC farms are on their way out in this country. Low prices, high cost of production, immigration issues, etc. I see several large farms around me that are struggling, everything from bean & corn to fruits & vegetables. Where do you think the future of farming is headed in this country?
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Mr Lund has it right. Farmers like to fantasize that there is something unique about their industry, but the truth is that it is a business like any other and those BTOs that are well-kanaged and smart, and anticipate markets and trends will continue to grow and the ones who grew huge but with the small-time mentalilty will be left in the dirt, so to speak. It is all about how smart the business has been run, including how smart upgrades and growth have been handled.

Most industries will, as they always have, move toward consolidation. There will always be a few guys selling tomatoes at the roadside stand, but they will be exceptions.
 
I agree with Mr. Lund. Farming, like any business, will have those who survive just about anything and those who fail to plan for tough times and thus fail. Before the market crash in 2008 there were many who thought that some businesses were to big to fail and there are those who believed that big farms would not fail either but the truth is no business can long survive without profit. Around my area there are many big dairy farms that are being propped up by the lenders because if they fail the banks will be in trouble.


AS for the future of farming, there will be changes and a need to adjust to current markets but there will still be many successful farmers and of course there will always be people and animals to feed. Don't throw away your pitch fork just yet!
 
Agreed. The guys who didn't use their money to upgrade or reinvest but instead spent it on more expensive life styles may not go broke - but will see their incomes drop and their envy directed at BTO compared to their operations will increase.


With lower incomes I don't see more small operators. My BIL talks about how his dad raised 9 kids and made a good living and his farm was 800 acres at its maximum size from the 1950s to the early 1980s. My BIL farmed about the same amount of land much his entire adult life (1979 to current) - while working a full time job as a teacher. The farm only paid for itself - he never took any money out of the farm for living expenses but spent its income on paying off ground and buying equipment. Not many people willing to do that for 30+ years. Granted he now has mostly new equipment for his "leisure farming" since he retired from teaching.
 
The biggest problem will be a change of food types. A recent Farm Journal had an article talking about synthetic animal protein. Let's face it we have 100's of millions of people in this country that have no connection to a farm so as long as synthetic food is safe and tastes reasonably good there will be consumers for it. Add to that the rising concern about animal welfare and now we have stories of thousands of dairy cows heading to slaughter due to declining milk prices. Honestly, farming looks like a train wreck to the people looking from outside of the industry in. There will be a demand for non-synthetic vegetables so that is the business I would try to be in if possible going into the future. By the way within the last couple of months there was a Successful Farming article about declining wheat acreage in Kansas and there was talk of declining wheat acres overall in the US as places such as the Ukraine get their act together. Big grain farming is far from a sure thing in the US at this point.
 
Farming is like most businesses in that there are good times and bad times to ride out.With most businesses the bad times are when the folks on the lower rung of the ladder,those with too much debt,poor managers,those that took high risks at the wrong time etc go bankrupt and the more efficient and better managers are left then the cycle takes over again.Farming has had the Gov't step in many times during bad times to save the people that really should have gone bankrupt but were able to hang on with Gov't money.End result many farming now should have been broke years ago.With corn and soybeans now they have gotten so easy to grow its almost like a factory so these big mega operations can grow grain on a massive scale and are happy with a profit margin that smaller farmers would starve.So it goes the small farmers that embraced the new GMO and Chemical technology were really embracing their own demise making it so easy to grow crops.Deal with a Rattlesnake long enough sooner or later it'll bite and kill you,so it goes with grain farmers today and dairy farmers too really.
 
Just to add a little. Food in our country is abundant as all get out and our disposable income goes a very long way compaired to the rest of the world. It is reported that from 30 to 40% of food is wasted in this country and many others around the world. Now we all know and have heard that. On my cable system, Comcast, there is a channel called NHK. This is TV from Japan. Just loads of very interesting programs. Here is a link to farming in Japan. Most produce is Very labor intensive. Check out the program on grapes, then tomatoes, apples, cantaloupe, and a few others. Wakes you up.
grapes.
 
Problem is,it'll take a major widespread natural disaster to bring supplies back down,and that disaster will take out even more that the low prices did. Doesn't matter what the price is if you don't have a crop or livestock to sell.
 
There's a channel on Direct TV that comes out of China too. CGTV,China Global Television Network. Do a search for Amur Valley. China can farm on a massive industrial scale and not just a patchwork of peasants,as they've proven for decades by the scale that they farm that river basin.
 
In my neck of the woods, it is all heading in the corporate direction. Big business owners and incorporated farmers are buying up every farm that comes up for sale. Even the elevators, seed, feed, and fertilizer place are all consolidating. If you a small guy, we are in the hang on untill you die stage. Anything changes hands, it's get big or get out.
 
South and East of me in more open country suitable for pretty large scale crop farming there is an outfit that has rented at least several thousand acres and grows corn and soybeans,supposedly they are backed or owned by a group of well off investors.If they make money great if not its a tax write off they are not going anywhere.That around my area and the other extreme is small labor intensive high value crop farms is the future of farming. And the cattle operations that are on land not suitable for either of those types that the owners of the land are just waiting for a developer to offer them a price they can't turn down.I'm pretty much in the last category.
 
Guys, the small farm is all but dead. Most younger people are not willing to either work a day job and then farm at night or deny themselves the pleasures of life on a meager income. They want to be able to eat out at decent places (no McDonald's/Burger Kind Wendy's and Perkins are NOT fine dining). Even Applebee's isn't all that good. They want their kids to have decent things too. And no, your idea of decent isn't they same.

There will always be a few small farmers around because they do what that life. But most of those are never going to amount to much. Mama working in town to pay the bills and dad spending everything the farm makes on the farm and never getting ahead. Now look at why. Because they treat the thing as a lifestyle not a business. And no matter how much you love the life it's still a business! Now convince young people today that's it's a desirable life! Young people who like to hangout with friends, got out clubbing ECT.

So the big farms are going to be here because they do treat it as a business. Sure some are going to fall by the wayside because they made poor decisions. But while the small guy is making 15-20K a year (on a real good year) profits on 500 acres the big guy farming 2000 is actually going to make OK money at 60-80K. And the BTO is going to farm 20K acres and make 600-800K then take the family to Disney World for 2 weeks.........

Gotta face it. Eventually JD/CIH-NH/AGCO/Kubota are going to stop supporting old tractors. Just won't be enough market demand to make it profitable. What's the small shoe string operator going to do then? Start farming with horses?

Rick
 
A LOT of people in town making a meager income as well. Also, the towns people lack the equity that some of the country folk have. There was a sit-down and order
type restaurant in a nearby town that closed due to retirement a year ago and sits empty today. And yet there is no shortage of traffic into McD's, KFC, etc. Are people
really that into crappy food or do they not have the money to pay 15-20 dollars per plate versus speaking into a mic to get a 5 dollar value meal?

An epiphany will hit the equipment builders as there is only so much markup to be had in a tractor or combine to keep a company afloat. Parts will be available as the
whole goods side will dry up like a raisin in terms of profit dollars for dealer and manufacturer. Two of the biggest BTO's around here historically work the used angle to
the chagrin of the dealers and only bought new when the grain boom was in full swing several years back. I would not want to be an area dealer be forced to depend on
the BTO's knowing the purchase habits of some of these BTO's.
 
Your last statement in your message hit home. Had some parts completely wear out on my IH hay rake this year. Case
IH said parts been discontinued. Not even in stock anywhere. Not only that, but after market makers not making the
parts either. That is for the ones I needed anyway.
 
I think everybody thought Boersen Farms was invincible too. They had Amway money behind them,but eventually,investors get tired of loosing money. Generally if they have a portion of their investment set up for a loss,they have to be able to depend on that loss. When a farm makes money for a few years and can't be counted on to loose money,that can cause problems too. It's hard to plan a loss when the weather and prices all line up in your favor. Last I knew,you could only claim a loss in farming for seven years before you lost those deductions. I don't know any farmers who'll farm in a manner that just makes investor's accountants happy.
 
This begs the question of how old of a rake? I can't see a company making a production run on a part if there is no profit to be had. Some people have contended that manufacturers will cease production on profitable parts to move customers into making a whole goods purchase. Not going to happen with me. I work the area combine bone yard pretty hard if I need something for my JD 6620 combine. I have two JD planters and two JD drills that are well supported by Shoup. Buying parts tractors has become a priority even though I am not at a need stage. For lack of money was the only thing stopping me from buying a JD 4010 diesel this past August for parts. I do need to get the old Farmall M up and going but I will buy a parts unit for a few hundred dollars versus giving Case 800 bucks for a few new pieces. There are parts places such as Fry's in Pennsdale (Williamsport), PA and I would suggest giving them a call at 570-546-3968 to see if they can help you.
 
Being an IH,it could be a matter of who made it too. I don't know how many different companies made IH hay tools over the years,but didn't they source them from New Idea for a time?

It might be kinda like my David Brown built Olivers. No parts from AGCO,but I walked right in to CaseIH and got a fuel pump for one this spring.
 
Well it's a IH 16 side delivery. Guessing just old enough to not have the front dolly wheel. Need the hub and clutch halves for both sides. Not surprising to me it's been discontinued. Case IH said they haven't even sold, or maybe even made a single side delivery in years. Just makes me wonder how much other stuff people run into this on. Be unlikely for me to find the parts I need. These all get smashed, not salvaged. If I were to try to find a parts rake, they probly be worn out on it to since it is a high wear point.
 
Hard to say. A lot of IH availability is based on what IH factory a piece of equipment came out of versus an entirely different builder. Pretty sure the old IH 50 forage harvester down in the barn was made in East Moline but then IH moved forage equipment production to Hamilton, ONT during the 1970's. I think parts availability for the 50 was no longer 100 percent at that point but all wear parts were still offered OEM. Today, outside of U-joints and wheel bearings I am not sure what else is still offered. I think that Shoup stopped offering knives and shear bars quite a while ago for it.
 
I have almost zero debt. Just how am I all but dead?? I will be standing when many BTOS have fallen. If big was better, why didn't the dinosaurs survive? AL
 
Yep, everybody falls to the ravages of time including BTO's. Even the best drawn legal plan won't prevent an incompetent heir from running a business into the ground. A number of BTO's work marginal ground here so even with investors it will be difficult to survive.
 
With 6 kids and my wife that comes out to $120 to $160 for meal. Go home and make hamburger helper and eat around the table for $12.




Small time operators with 200-500 acres sure **** aren't buying new combines or tractors.
 
Well unforeseen events usually are what brings dramatic changes a couple things that are on the horizon that could dramatically alter farming is 1)Gov't money runs out and farmers actually have to make it on their own with the National Debt at 21 trillion$ and climbing every day a lot can happen quickly.2)A big change in who is in Congress.
 
(quoted from post at 10:10:40 10/01/18) Well it's a IH 16 side delivery. Guessing just old enough to not have the front dolly wheel. Need the hub and clutch halves for both sides. Not surprising to me it's been discontinued. Case IH said they haven't even sold, or maybe even made a single side delivery in years. Just makes me wonder how much other stuff people run into this on. Be unlikely for me to find the parts I need. These all get smashed, not salvaged. If I were to try to find a parts rake, they probly be worn out on it to since it is a high wear point.
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Here is one I tried to kill myself with when I was 10 years old...hated turning left with it! It is sitting in South Dakota.
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But they sure do not have to get out of the way of those that declare them obsolete. I still believe that for the manufacturers there is safety in numbers. How much can a tractor or combine be marked up in the face of declining sales volume to keep a factory open. Most of the BTO's here historically have bypassed the dealer on equipment in favor of the Midwest consignment auction. With the recent grain boom there is no shortage of late combines and tractors and if there is not these guys have long had shops to drag projects in. More often than not the BTO favors economy over the glitz.
 
(quoted from post at 09:38:09 10/01/18) A LOT of people in town making a meager income as well. Also, the towns people lack the equity that some of the country folk have. There was a sit-down and order
type restaurant in a nearby town that closed due to retirement a year ago and sits empty today. And yet there is no shortage of traffic into McD's, KFC, etc. Are people
really that into crappy food or do they not have the money to pay 15-20 dollars per plate versus speaking into a mic to get a 5 dollar value meal?

An epiphany will hit the equipment builders as there is only so much markup to be had in a tractor or combine to keep a company afloat. Parts will be available as the
whole goods side will dry up like a raisin in terms of profit dollars for dealer and manufacturer. Two of the biggest BTO's around here historically work the used angle to
the chagrin of the dealers and only bought new when the grain boom was in full swing several years back. I would not want to be an area dealer be forced to depend on
the BTO's knowing the purchase habits of some of these BTO's.
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Oh for sure some make a meager income living in town. That is generally because of life decisions. And don't hand be that garbage about where they live. The bus runs every day. They have the ability to relocate.

But farming on a small scale generally doesn't make much money. And most small farms don't produce enough for 2 families. So that means your new small farmer is going to be a start up operation. You take a farm kid, who's been working hard for many years by the time they are 18. Tell em they gotta go out on their own and most are not going to even think about farming.

Seems to me that while the fast food places have been loosing market share for decades with people opting to dine in batter places. I'll go hungry before I stuff that garbage from a buck menu in my face. And there are a lot of folks besides me saying that too. As far as a sit down place going out of business? Happens all the time. You have to have the population with the income to support such places. I can't remember the last time I ate fast food. More and more people are going elsewhere anymore.

Nope My older tractors are 1948/49 year model. Some parts are NLA and have been that way for years. What happens is they have to pay to warehouse things. So they don't make huge production runs on much of the older stuff. Then they price to make a profit. It hits a point where they are not selling enough parts for a particular machine to continue production. I have a tractor from 1965 that the exhaust manifold is NLA. That's for a Farmall too. So the companies have an option. Make parts for them old tractors or make the parts NLA forcing the owner into a newer or new tractor.

Rick
 
(quoted from post at 13:50:56 10/01/18) But they sure do not have to get out of the way of those that declare them obsolete. I still believe that for the manufacturers there is safety in numbers. How much can a tractor or combine be marked up in the face of declining sales volume to keep a factory open. Most of the BTO's here historically have bypassed the dealer on equipment in favor of the Midwest consignment auction. With the recent grain boom there is no shortage of late combines and tractors and if there is not these guys have long had shops to drag projects in. More often than not the BTO favors economy over the glitz.
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I don't know where you are at but west of me 25-30 miles and more is the Red River valley MN and ND. Small farmer out there is 2000 acres or so. Some are farming 30,000 or more. And these are old well established family operations too. Most of the big boys out there lease. They might take a 5 year lease on a tractor but often it's only 2 on a combine. Kinda funny to see some of the lease returns advertised. 350,000 for a used bine :shock: ! Heads of course are extra. And them big guys? Many love to flash the cash. Instead of gold chains they have fancy pickups that they sit in while watching workers combine the crops. They have found that it's easier to keep good help if the equipment is nice too. Heck a lot of our BTO's up here winter in AZ.

Look, I'm not knocking a lifestyle. I'm pointing out that to most people it's not desirable. Most people want what they see as a better lifestyle. They want to go to the Red Robin for and upscale burger or maybe 5 Guys if they are slumn'. Not some soy blend burger they pay a buck for. And I'll bet most people who can afford better than the buck menu don't eat the buck menu.

So because of the factors already mentioned plus the fact that young people today have to have the financial backing to get started.......well the small farm has a dim future.

Rick
 
From where I sit I would say that most make a meager living that live in town. There are a few 5,500-7,500 person towns nearby and if there were 100 school
teachers, a dozen school administrators, a car dealer, a doctor, a banker, and a couple of dozen other business owners and allowing that two thirds of the population
are not wage earners due to being too young or too old that still leaves close to 2,500 others pulling in minimum wage or close to it. What do you think the guy at the
local equipment dealer pulling wrenches or car dealer pulling wrenches is making? The guy working retail? Years ago a guy my dad knew was asked to pull wrenches
for a local farm equipment dealer and despite all the lofty praise this person was offered minimum wage. You can talk about relocation all you want but that is not
going to solve the problem of wages in mass. There are not that many high end jobs in the city for an exodus to happen in each county of 20,000 plus people
assuming they could acquire the necessary skills.

You and I may not have much use for fast food but that is not testimony to what I see in the parking lots of McD's, KFC, etc. I think more people would take the time
for a full dinner if they could afford it.

Don't know how you source your parts but in most cases there are alternatives even they are ones you do not like. The owner of the combine bone yard is nice
enough but I would rather save some time and buy at the dealer but I am not going broke to do it. So in the end I do have a choice on nearly all my parts purchases. I
would say in that most instances a farmer is NOT forced to buy new whole goods based what the dealer can or can not get.
 
You'd loose your bet with me.I can afford about any restaurant and rarely go to any of them but a Wendys double stack for $2.50 is as good of a burger that I have gotten out of any restaurant anywhere.Now its not close to being as good as my wife's deer burgers of course. We like to be able to stay home eat things we grow or kill here on the farm to me that is what being a success on a farm is all about.I wouldn't give you 2 cents to live like many 'agribusinessmen' as they call themselves these days.They have no garden,no fruit trees,no canning or freezing what they grow,cut no firewood etc etc.They are city mined people that happen to grow crops or raise cows for a living.To me farming is a lifestyle not a job.I raise cattle and meat goats to make some money and to have a justification to own a bunch of older tractors/equipment that I love to run and use.We don't spend half what we take in every month even being 'retired' so the lack of money isn't what keeps me home on the farm its the joy of being able to get up every morning and do what I want here every day.A farmer like me rarely goes broke.
 
My dad went broke in the 80's, and came back. Went broke again last year at 78 years old. I bought his land. I made my start, at the same time he made his restart. I'm not saying it won't happen to me someday, but some men prosper and some fail.
 
I know plenty of farmers who ain't got nothing extra to the point the wife works so they have medical insurance. Nothing extra at all. So where's the draw? Most folks don't have the financial backing to even think about getting a start. Many of the farm kids want nothing to do with anything on the farm and as soon as they are 18 they are out of there.

Thing is the vast bulk of Americans are well over the poverty level in income. And that's where most people strive to be. Farmer here had 5 kids. All of them have fled the farm. Another had 9. All but one left.

Here mechanics do OK. They start at 14 or 15 an hour right out of school and get 50-60 hours a week. Heck local town here the Convenience store starts at 10 an hour. Population of about 800.

You may not like the fact that many people don't want to farm. But most kids today don't. They want to work 8-5 with coffee breaks and weekends off. Heck the guy I mentioned with 5 kids? He's been trying to hire help. He had one guy this spring, 5 PM came he called someone to pick him up and just left a tractor in the field. He's had a couple of people refuse to take work because it requires some weekends. Most people don't want the work that's required to farm. And with the high cost of starting up many can't raise the money and the ones who can most will have a crushing debt load. So yea, the small farm is dying. There will still be a few just not as many.

And yea, I got to Fergus Falls the fast food places are packed at lunchtime because it's the only option. But go in the evening for dinner? And you have to wait to get a table at Applebees but none of the fast food places are overcrowded.

Rick
 
We have found out it is hard to get started unless you can subsidize it with off farm income. I?ve worked for farms when I was a kid. After I graduated high school I bought my first 40 the second one 2 yrs later. My dad brother and I started buying land and leasing in 06 and are currently farming around 450 acres. If it wasn?t for our electrical business there is no way we would be able to do it. We are currently growing in both businesses now.. I think small farms will come back.
 
The vast bulk of American's are well above the poverty level in income? Define "well above" as the poverty level usually means relying on public transportation, renting
subsidized living space, and a net consumer of tax money? Many people from what I see live above the poverty level for this area but still drive old unreliable vehicles
and are not home owners but are renters of some sort among other things.

Pretty hard to get a job in most small towns that don't involve nights or weekends. Even school teachers are badgered into being coaches so some portion of the
school year they are at school until 6PM or after then it is off to home to grade papers until bed. Newbie at a factory is usually going to get the hours others don't want
which means 11PM to 7PM typically. Law enforcement or hospital is self explanatory. Heck, even if you could get a Farm Credit job you are working well after dinner time
as evidenced by the young fellow who called on my parents several years back for a loan review. I would guess with the number of farm fading away people are just
fighting to hang onto a job even if means being stuck at some lonely outpost in the middle of nowhere.
 
Average size of farms by state in 2017 from NASS. Ohio - 190 ac, IN - 259 ac, ILL - 375 ac, IA - 351 ac. Those are not large farms. This includes all farms, including hobby farms. Many smaller farms have owners with a job in town - part time farmers. They are far from being dying farms. They are more likely to survive a downturn in market prices since they have income from a job in town to fall back on. Unlike a BTO who may have nothing to fall back on in a market downturn.
 
Many large scale operations that operate on credit and depend on regular cash flow to pay debt and salaries will fold in the next few years, others who were to stupid to pay down or pay off debt in the good market years will also fail. I think in the next 30 years or so the small family farm will make a large comeback, deflation and industry/job destruction will force people to dig in and accept a lower lifestyle. People who say there is no money in livestock or farming on a small scale either don't know what they are talking about or have never had a plan, I started with nothing and in 40 plus years 400 acres of mostly grass and a cattle operation has made me well off, it's going to do the same for my Sons.
 
(quoted from post at 18:05:22 10/01/18) The vast bulk of American's are well above the poverty level in income? Define "well above" as the poverty level usually means relying on public transportation, renting
subsidized living space, and a net consumer of tax money? Many people from what I see live above the poverty level for this area but still drive old unreliable vehicles
and are not home owners but are renters of some sort among other things.

Pretty hard to get a job in most small towns that don't involve nights or weekends. Even school teachers are badgered into being coaches so some portion of the
school year they are at school until 6PM or after then it is off to home to grade papers until bed. Newbie at a factory is usually going to get the hours others don't want
which means 11PM to 7PM typically. Law enforcement or hospital is self explanatory. Heck, even if you could get a Farm Credit job you are working well after dinner time
as evidenced by the young fellow who called on my parents several years back for a loan review. I would guess with the number of farm fading away people are just
fighting to hang onto a job even if means being stuck at some lonely outpost in the middle of nowhere.
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Hate to be the bearer of bad news but according to the US government only 16% of American families are below the poverty line. That's the line where you qualify for assistance (SNAP, rent assistance, heat assistance, free lunch's at school and so on). Really when you look at how large the population is that's amazing. But it's no where near the 50% mark some people would have you believe. Now if you want to look at people using subsidized transportation look at AMTRAK. Not all of it, just the only profitable line (still subsidized) from Boston to DC. Average rider makes 6 figures, that's right, over 100,000 a year. That line runs from DC to Philly, Newark, NYC and Boston. Bet you can't guess which party the vote for living in that area on average? The way it's set up there is no option to pay the full price. So you really can't label them as being below the poverty line. In fact light rail is subsidized by local, sate and the federal government. That runs inside the city. Average rider in Chicago makes at least 60K. And it's like that clear across the country.

All I am saying is that the small farm is about to move onto the endangered list. Most small farmers I know (less that 1000 acres) are not big enough for 2 families as far as income goes. So JR has no choice but to get a job. Once he gets married it's over. Mom and dad are most likely going to sell the farm as their retirement plan. See that here all too often. Of if they keep some it's a 10 acre farmstead. Most younger people today are just going to pass on it. They want to spend off hours with family and friends. Not out fighting the weather on a wore out tractor trying to get crops in. Just because they don't want to live/work like that doesn't make farmers better or worse. Just means everyone is different.

Average size farm in SD? 1400 acres. MN? Close to 350. ND? 2100. The guys around here in MN where I live? None I know of are as small as 350 and a full time farmer. Heck it's gotta be close to 1000 before kids are even interested in staying.

I know there are a lot of folks who wish the BTO's would go away. Well there are here to stay. Few year back (13-14 years) a nephew and his wife looked at buying a farm. They came up with a business plan and went to the bank. Bank was willing to go with them only if they were going to milk a minimum of 80 cows. Nephew said there was no way he could take care of 80 cows, replacement stock and crops and do it right. The debt load right now would kill them! Don't matter, a crushing debt load will kill a small time operator or a BTO.

Rick
 
(quoted from post at 19:41:17 10/01/18) Average size of farms by state in 2017 from NASS. Ohio - 190 ac, IN - 259 ac, ILL - 375 ac, IA - 351 ac. Those are not large farms. This includes all farms, including hobby farms. Many smaller farms have owners with a job in town - part time farmers. They are far from being dying farms. They are more likely to survive a downturn in market prices since they have income from a job in town to fall back on. Unlike a BTO who may have nothing to fall back on in a market downturn.
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I'm not saying they will die altogether. But they are going to slowly die off. And I keep pointing out the same things. Most who are interested who have to start out with nothing start looking at cost and back off of the potential debt. Kids who grow up and small farms judging by our area are about 20-80%. That's 20% are interested in farming and 80% want nothing to do with it. Of the 20% I bet only about 5% or less stay because there is no money to do anything with. Gotta both make a living but also have a life. And here at least we just are not seeing kids staying even on the bigger operations. The guy with 5 kids i mentioned? He farms nearly 1500 acres. Those kids are gone to the wind. Another guy I know who farms about 1000, 2 kids. The daughter has made a career in the US Army and his son is an airline pilot. This is what's going to kill off most small farms in the long run. Just cause you like farming doesn't mean your kid/kids will or even the grand kids.

Rick
 
A mile down the road a large 100+ year old family farm was converted over to LLC before the 85 year old man died. I think it had something to do with keeping the farm in the family. It may have had something to do with taxes too.
The farm is still run by the same family. I think the current farmer is the 4th generation farmer and a Purdue grad.

When I drive by, I see a lot of new Green, John Deere Green.
I also see a lot of dollars in all his equipment, which are green too.

His farms have irrigation too. Recently converted from diesel to electric pumps.

Only get to see his big equipment when they are being used. When he is done, they are parked inside pole barns.

So, I would say large corp farming may be what's keeping this successful family farm going. Future is safe here.
 

In my opinion, based on what I see locally in Northern NY, I think the future looks like this- It's going to be all huge LLC/Corp dairy farms with the exception of a few organic/on farm milk sales/goat/sheep/niche farms catering to a tiny sector of the market. Custom hay/harvesting guys will likely grow. As far as fruit and produce, the Amish and strictly organic guys have that sewed up and I don't see any change there. Beef/lamb/meat producers are going to get squeezed harder and harder until they drop out because of taxes, regulation and other costs. The little homestead/hobby farms will continue on about as they are now, losing money every year but doing it because it's a lifestyle.

No clue on whats going to happen to grain farmers, big hog/poultry, etc., but it wouldn't surprise me if it followed along as dairy will.
 
Just because a family is not below a poverty line for where they live does not mean they are heavy spenders in their local economy. I did not say anything about 50
percent being below the poverty line. Do like a reality show did a number of years back did in that they lived in a residence on par with their a dollar an hour above
minimum wage life style and see for yourself how cushy it is.

AmTrak? A little misleading as there is a convenience factor and there is a certain portion of the public that does not want to fly. Not sure where you are going on this
but I would say not all public transportation riders live in poverty but most people who live in poverty are public transportation riders.

Not saying that the small family farm is not under stress but each era is its own. Before the Mennonites and Amish showed up here in mass nobody was giving the very
small farm a chance to exist 30 years ago. Grain farming is still under threat by new food technology and foreign competition. If there is simply no money in grain
farming even the BTO will have no choice but to idle his operation.
 
Only 16% are classified as poor - but around 50% are drawing some sort of government assistance.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2014/07/02/weve-crossed-the-tipping-point-most-americans-now-receive-government-benefits/#5871d9933e6c

external_linkcare has pushed us over the entitlements tipping point. In 2011 some 49.2 percent of U.S. households received benefits from one or more government programs?about 151 million out of an estimated 306.8
million Americans?according to U.S. Census Bureau data released last October.

Currently, around 6 million to 7 million Americans who have signed up for external_linkcare are receiving taxpayer-provided subsidies (though the administration?s numbers cannot be trusted, it?s all we have to work
with). There are another 3 million who have signed up for Medicaid.

That means some 10 million Americans?or a total of about 161 million?are now getting government subsidies (though the final number might be somewhat lower since some may have been receiving benefits
already).
 
You can't ask a farmer, anymore than you could have asked the local banker (swallowed up), corner grocery store owner (out of business) or little local new car dealer (closed and gone). Very few people have the vision to see the future of their industry. That is why Walmart killed Sears and now Amazon is killing Walmart. The biggest challenge most businesses have is learning to drive by looking out the windshield instead of always looking in the rear view mirror.

Can you predict the market price of corn or cows 5 years from now? no.
But if you are the lowest cost producer... you should come out OK.
 
(quoted from post at 06:24:07 10/02/18) Just because a family is not below a poverty line for where they live does not mean they are heavy spenders in their local economy. I did not say anything about 50
percent being below the poverty line. Do like a reality show did a number of years back did in that they lived in a residence on par with their a dollar an hour above
minimum wage life style and see for yourself how cushy it is.

AmTrak? A little misleading as there is a convenience factor and there is a certain portion of the public that does not want to fly. Not sure where you are going on this
but I would say not all public transportation riders live in poverty but most people who live in poverty are public transportation riders.

Not saying that the small family farm is not under stress but each era is its own. Before the Mennonites and Amish showed up here in mass nobody was giving the very
small farm a chance to exist 30 years ago. Grain farming is still under threat by new food technology and foreign competition. If there is simply no money in grain
farming even the BTO will have no choice but to idle his operation.
Click to expand...


OK you are the one who kept going on about people being below the poverty line. I was giving you actual numbers, not those muddied by a political party or the news media. No you didn't say 50%. But you indicated that the numbers were high.

I use AMTRAK as an example. Actually I did some research about a year ago concerning mass transit. The vast bulk of riders including buses (also subsidized) make over 60K a year. To be honest I was very surprised by that number. So much so that I checked those numbers through several sources. Seems that's why no one will vote to end the various subsidies. In the inner city yes there are a lot of poor who use public transport. But in the city, say NYC a lot of people who can afford a car choose not to have one because of the hassles of parking and availability of public transport. If they wish to drive sometime they rent. Even there most people riding work but because of traffic conditions don't drive. It's been an issue for many years.

What I said is that the small farm is dying. If you go look at the numbers they are. Maybe only 20-30 per year per state but if you look that number drops every year. And I see it here. I know the families. Dad working himself to death, mom working a job in town and JR bolting for the door the second he has his diploma in his back pocket. Out of all the farmers I know farming less than 1000 acres and few farming that and maybe a little more, who's kids are young adults, 1, that's it 1 has a kid who stayed on the farm. I think we are fast approaching a short time frame where over the course of 10 years 1000s of small farms will go away because the current owners will all be retiring close to the same time.

Rick
 
What I am saying is that living a dollar or two above minimum wage is far from a cushy lifestyle and that is what most Americans who are under age 60 are facing in a
great many small towns. The one's who did not ride the great post WWII prosperity into the 1990's unscathed. The ones who did not buy a house in 1960 or 1970 for
5,000 dollars to watch that home appreciate to being worth 125,000-150,000 dollars today. The ones that had a stable job until retirement and are drawing a retirement
plus maybe working a few hours a week for fun money.
 
The other thing to consider about someone living in the country on some acreage is the amount of money they have coming in does not tell the whole story.Country people can supply their own heat with wood,have a garden,fruit trees,berries etc to supply most of their vegetables and fruit.Shoot and process deer and other animals, or fish for their meat,hunt fish etc for their entertainment.
So they can live really good on the same amount of money that a person in a town or city on a lot or apartment would barely be able to survive on.Plus I save money on vacations since I can't
spare the time away from the farm to go on one.(LOL) Really I feel like I'm on vacation every day of my life now here on the farm doing what I love to do.
 
IMHO, the current trends will all continue and get stronger. The majority of production will continue to come from increasingly larger and larger corporate farms. Some of those will will go out of business from time to time, but most of those will be replaced by even larger operations rather than being split up into 20 to 50 small farms of a generation or two ago.

The high price of farmland will likely shift land ownership away from retired farmers and widows to investor groups and wealthy individuals.

Rural living will continue to be popular amount the people who can afford to buy small acreages and small plots of farmland, but most of those will need one or two off farm jobs to support a family and and support the small farm too. In areas with strong industries and good wages, the larger farms may sell off strips of small acreages along the roads for top dollar while continuing to farm the interior of the sections.

The sad part is too many rural areas don't have much industry besides agriculture. Low wages and restricted property tax revenues will continue to slowly strangle those areas. As schools and public services decline or fall behind other areas, people will move away leaving "counties in distress" and small towns that slowly become desperate rural ghettos.

I sincerely hope all this will never happen, but I don't see much that could reverse those trends.
 
Reform the crop insurance program back to its intended purpose which was a safety net for at the time comparatively smaller farms when introduced decades ago. Let the investors assume the risk on 10,000's of thousands of acres instead of the tax payer. Penalties for shell games and deceptions for those that try to circumvent a reform. You take subsidized crop insurance means that the Feds can audit your operation to make sure you are playing by the rules. Not hard but most lack any will power to go along.
 
(quoted from post at 08:27:11 10/02/18) Reform the crop insurance program back to its intended purpose which was a safety net for at the time comparatively smaller farms when introduced decades ago. Let the investors assume the risk on 10,000's of thousands of acres instead of the tax payer. Penalties for shell games and deceptions for those that try to circumvent a reform. You take subsidized crop insurance means that the Feds can audit your operation to make sure you are playing by the rules. Not hard but most lack any will power to go along.
Click to expand...

Like that will fly. Why should the small guy get subsidized insurance and not the big guy? The taxpayer should not be on the hook for any of it! It,s called business. And the small business doesn’t get subsidized insurance to keep them from failing. If the small farmer can’t make it on his own then he should fail. Sorry but that,s just the way I see it. Don’t hand me this “we feed the world “ nonsense! Your crop doesn’t go to market without rail workers and truckers. Your crops don’t get planted without the oil drilling roughneck or the refinery worker. Companies would not buy your grains if they didn’t have workers to process it.
 
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