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37chief

Well-known Member
Location
California
I was fortunate to work for a company that had a investment plan. The company would match a certain amount of what I put in. When I retired I had to put my money in a account of some kind so it will remain tax free until I took it out. I went to a investment person. Sure put your money with us. I went through a couple of these shysters before I found one that was a little more honest than the last two. I learned a new term "churning" About every month or two I would need to sell this, and buy that. With the last guy I put some money In the stock market. Not one call to sell or buy. With the stock market up and down I got out completely today. Not rich by any means here, but I want to keep what I have, and not see a repeat of 2008. Where do you see stock market going? Stan
 
Stan, Stock markets will always go up and down. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. At the end of the year if I lost $3k in a stock that I don't like, I'll sell. A $3k loss translates into a $1K tax savings. Can't do this with a 401 or IRA money. I have some stock in energy, lost 13% to date. I'm thinking oil will come back, but when? If it doesn't I'll sell it at the end of 2016 and take my loss. You can only use $3k per year, but the loss can carry over next year or whenever it's used up. George
 
I don't care where it goes as long as what I hold stays on the rise. Even the best guys can't predict the future. { Also one of those idiots told my wife years ago to sell all her Harley stock and get Lucent---Doh---,which she did! They have no real concern for your money because it is not their money.]
 
I think it's all a shell game and kept in action artificially supported by all the billionaires in Washington DC just to keep their pet projects alive.
 
With the election year I'm thinking it might be a good time to put it all in a stable value fund. But years ago I realized when all the electricians talked about stocks not one of us really knew what we were talking about and were often way off.
 
So, did you sell out in 08 and take a beating? Or did you hold on and recovered it? By selling you guarantee to lock in your loss. I'm happy to hang on, I still have faith in this country's economy.
 
My "theory" for what it is worth is that during a presidential election no one gets elected saying how good things are. Everyone talks about how bad the economy is an eventually the market starts to show it. In September 2008 I sold all my stocks and put everything in my 401k into money market accounts. The only problem was I should have bought back into the market in November but I couldn't screw my courage up until March 2009 when a lot of the stocks had comeback for the most part.


This year on October 1st I put everything in my 401k into money market accounts again, in November and early December I thought I might have screwed up - now I feel pretty good about it.


A while back I listened to a broker talk about if in 1955 you invested $10,000 in the stock market (index funds) on October 1st of every year and pulled it out on May 1st after 60 years you would still have your $10,000. If you put the same $10,000 in the market on May 1st and pulled it out on October 1st for 60 years you would have over a million dollars.
 
I took a real beating in 2008 and got out , put money in local credit union , what was left over , Brother just retired in Calif, and in the first 2 months he,s lost 9 grand all ready , and investor is on vacation in Hawaii
Wayne
 
"If you put the same $10,000 in the market on May 1st and pulled it out on October 1st for 60 years you would have over a million dollars. "

You have it backwards. An old stock market saying: "Sell in May and go away". Buy in the Fall, sell in the Spring.
 

Either you put your money in the stock market, or you bury it in a tin can in the backyard. Either way, there is a chance of losing it. With the stock market, there IS a chance it will grow.
 
I toke all my money out in 2008 and stuck it in CD's--not much of a gain but it is all safe and there when i want it
 
I lost about 40% of my retirement funds in 2008. Didn't panic - it all came back and then some. I like low cost mutual funds vs individual stocks. Folks like T. Rowe Price, Fidelity and Vanguard have low cost mutual funds. IMHO a good place to start if you know nothing about stocks and mutual funds are the age targeted funds that are agressive when young and transition to conservative as you grow old.

I'm a believer in long term investing. Every payday, I contribute to my retirement funds - doesn't matter if the market is up or down. Historically you will come out ahead with consistent investing vs timing the market.

Warren Buffet said something to the effect - When people are greedy I'm fearful and when people are fearful, I'm greedy.

I view this downturn and others like it as a "sale". Prices cut and great buys out there!

Bill
 
Doesn't the saying go something like this " you don't make any money or loose any till the day you sell it". I let mine ride and ignore the brokers that want to talk to me about changing things. It recovered pretty good after 08 without doing anything to it. When I first put money in, the market was at less than 3000. There is a lot of appreciation on that first money.
 
Were you able to use loss against income taxes? I too got hosed, $45k in 2008. Took my loss, put the money back in a different investment and back to where I started pre 2008. Been using $3k paper loss each year. Was your loss qualified or non-qualified money?
 
Quite some time back I asked, on this forum, if there was an EQUAL forum for money management. Someone suggested a book "Random Walk Guide to Investing" by Burton Malkiel. I purchased the book via Ebay and it makes very good sense to me. The bottom line is to manage your own money, in index funds, both stock and bonds. The book recomends a portfolio mix based on age.
 
(quoted from post at 13:40:48 01/15/16) I don't care where it goes as long as what I hold stays on the rise. Even the best guys can't predict the future. { Also one of those idiots told my wife years ago to sell all her Harley stock and get Lucent---Doh---,which she did! They have no real concern for your money because it is not their money.]
Click to expand...

I had some of Lucent stock and it going up and splitting and a friend told me to get rid of it but I didn't. turned $20,000 into $2000. It was part of a spin-off so I actually didn't lose anything out of my pocket but I should have listened.
 

The players are manipulating the stock market right now. Driving oil shares low with surplus crude oil production. Then after a little tiff or scare in the middle east. Oil will return to $80-$100 a barrel. The bargain priced stocks with triple or quadruple.
 
It would appear that 60 years of Trading fees, there wouldn't be any money left to invest!!!
Led
 
You are supposed to sell when the market is HIGH but we are all too greedy to do that. I'm in it for the long haul and let it ride.
 
The stock market is driven by two human emotions. Greed and fear. Right now, fear has taken over. I placed a rather large buy order today following another several days ago and will be buying more next week. I am a disciple of the Warren Buffet creed: "When others are fearful, be greedy. When others are greedy, be fearful". (;>))
 
You could manage your own at one of these places.

http://www.thestreet.com/online-trading/compare-best-online-brokers.html
 
I agree. But ignoring the world around you and staying for the long haul is the advice brokers give out to those they need to dump their stock onto.

Sell Everything!? Royal Bank of Scotland Tells Investors to Fear 2016 Financial Cataclysm

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/sell-everything-royal-bank-of-scotland-tells-investors-to-fear-2016-financial-cataclysm_01132016
 
You will probably do ok. I just couldn't go through another decline like in 2008. I have recovered from that, but not enough years left to go through that again. Stan
 
I depend on 10-year averages to guide staying in or getting out. I'm reluctant to sell when the market is taking a beating because it locks in losses. So I just let it ride and hope that, as in every downturn in the past, it eventually comes back. I'm in no rush. I'm actually considering stocking up (pun intended) on Deere and Caterpillar, both solid companies that are far below their 52-week highs at the moment.
 
Its always better to get out at the top (but who knows where the "top" is?)- you did fine getting out today, because I think there's a lot more down side coming. World has a glut of oil, and after next week (when the sanctions end), Iran's oil will come on the market as well. Middle east countries can no longer manipulate supply to get price up, because oil is the only thing they have to sell, and they have to keep selling it, regardless of price, to generate a cash flow to keep themselves going. They may even have to increase production. So look for more down side. You'll want to be pretty sure the market is recovering before you get back in. Key is probably oil price- if it starts recovering, and looks like the recovery will continue (ie, consumption has caught up with production), stock market should follow. Unless it doesn't. LOL
 
As did I , but this selloff has some genuine issues behind it , Oil prices and China's declining economy...
 
(quoted from post at 14:28:10 01/15/16) I was fortunate to work for a company that had a investment plan. The company would match a certain amount of what I put in. When I retired I had to put my money in a account of some kind so it will remain tax free until I took it out. I went to a investment person. Sure put your money with us. I went through a couple of these shysters before I found one that was a little more honest than the last two. I learned a new term "churning" About every month or two I would need to sell this, and buy that. With the last guy I put some money In the stock market. Not one call to sell or buy. With the stock market up and down I got out completely today. Not rich by any means here, but I want to keep what I have, and not see a repeat of 2008. Where do you see stock market going? Stan
Click to expand...

The one thing I've never lost money on is firearms. So, right now, I'm buying! 8)
 
The market seems to be less stable, i.e. wild swings one way then the other.

What's different about the last 10 years compared to the 100 before that is now we have computers making huge automated trades in microseconds. I believe they are basically gaming the system. It has muddied the waters IMO and made it harder to sort out what are solid investments and what are just propped up trends.

Most of my money has been parked since July.
 
Realy John Deere when the whole ag market is down and they are laying off workers and dealers have new stock running out their ears where have you been hiding.
 
I survived 2008 and recovered. Interesting that no one has mentioned stocks after September 11, 2001 when they really went over the cliff.
 
I find it funny that guys sell out at the very bottom. The loss has already happened and then they locked it in by selling. MAYBE!!! What???? It is only a loss if it is less than you put in!!! It is not a loss if you put in $10K and left it for 10 years and the high was $50K an you sold on a down market at $30K you still MADE $20K on your investment. Now you did also lose $20K of POTENTIAL income but you did not sell on the high. Matter of fact very few do. The WORST thing you can do is sell after a crash.

I think 37Chief did the right thing for time right now and Geo-TH,IN sold on an EMOTION/FEAR and locked in his loss. I have money in the market. I do not have ALL of my money in the market and I think that is the key. Have a diversified retirement plan and you should be fine unless we have a total collapse. Then even the gold, many are hoarding will not worth much either.

What I did several months ago is pulled out the profit on my investments. I left the principal in that I started with. The long term profits are more than what I originally invested. So in reality I have all my money back. Plus I have money that is still in the market to maybe grow during the next cycles.

I split my money into fourths. This is liquid money. 25% Stocks, 25% CDs, 25% Bonds(T bills), and 25% Rentals. Not all of these are going to crash at once unless the economy totally collapses.
 
Stan, over the long run the stock market has always outperformed bonds and fixed-income investments. But in order to make money in stocks, you have to do two things: minimize your expenses and manage your risk.

The way you minimize your expenses is to put your money in a no-load stock mutual fund, typically an S&P 500 index fund. S&P 500 index funds consistently outperform actively-managed funds, primarily because of their lower expenses. Your "investment person" was actually a salesman who made his money off sales commissions, so it was in HIS best interests to churn your account.

The way you manage risk is by "balancing" your accounts between stock funds and bond/fixed income funds. Generally speaking, the older you are the less money you want in stocks. However, it is seldom a good idea to take all you money out of stocks unless you're sure you're about to die. Most folks should keep between 50 and 80 percent of their retirement savings in stocks. I keep 70 percent of my money in stocks.

The way balancing works is that as the stock market moves up and down, you "re-balance" your investments to maintain whatever percentage you've picked. Back in 2007, I had about 80 percent of my money in stocks. When the market crashed, that dropped to about 50 percent. So I just moved money from bonds into stocks to bring the ratio up to 70 percent stocks/30 percent bonds. When the market recovered to its previously levels, I was actually ahead of the game even though the stock market was just at its break-even point.
 
Then on the other hand...

I buy only stocks. Bonds are debt and in 21st century USA debt is something you default on. Even if you are a government. I only buy stocks when they are low and I only buy stocks as long term investments. I made a LOT of money in 2008 by ignoring my book losses and buying more stock.
 
There is just a lot of fear right now. Why are we in trouble:

1 Oil has fallen making freight and heating cheaper. This is good for our economy.

2 China's unregulated speculating at home is in the middle of a correction. They are not stupid people and will fix their problems, but in the meantime prices of imports from China should go down. This is good for our economy.

3 Anybody who is living off their investments should not have had all their money in equities anyway. But for many who have retired, SS, pensions, and businesses like farming and rentals negate the need to use their investments anyway. If you aren't actively using your investments, you can wait for them to recover. When my dad dies at 92 in 2014 his assets were at the highest of his lifetime: the time to sell investments for need never came.

I own lots of oil stocks. We will keep driving cars, trucks, tractors, planes and trains. The oil business will keep making a profit on refining fuels. The only big losses are the value of the oil in the ground, that doesn't affect many of us.
 
I don't intend to ruffle any feathers, BUT anyone who takes investment advice off of this site is an idio_. Lot of good folks here who mean well, BUT...... If you don'd have an investment counselor, I would recommend EDWARD JONES, INC or some firm like that. Lots of SMART folks will help us out for a modest fee. It's all bad now, so I am taking a deep breath and holding on. I wish you and me the best $$ wise for now!!!! JD
 
I am at a age where I have to take out a certain amount every year. Then it is added as income and taxed at my tax rate. I just took a distribution in 2015. I let my tax guy figure it out. Stan
 
Actually few years ago someone had a monkey picking stocks and he was doing better than most of the so called 'experts.If these investment folks knew so much they'd be using their own advice to get rich and wouldn't need to mess with other investors/suckers.
 
The market is in a temporary down-hill slide, so it may be cheaper to get in. However if you want to survive, you must be able to stay in for the long-haul. That being said, you should be aware that if we elect a nnalert administration this year,all controls will be rescinded and the market will crash worse than in 2008.
 
(quoted from post at 10:56:07 01/16/16) The market is in a temporary down-hill slide, so it may be cheaper to get in. However if you want to survive, you must be able to stay in for the long-haul. That being said, you should be aware that if we elect a nnalert administration this year,all controls will be rescinded and the market will crash worse than in 2008.
Click to expand...

It's the controls placed by socialists that pushed the market into an unnatural position and take a wild extreme osculation.
If you like socialism so much. Move to a socialist country.
 
Currently banks pay around 1 percent. You can go to your broker if you can trust him and he can lock you in at a fixed rate of 3 percent or better. The roth IRAs are the best thing out there. They are tax free investments. What ever you make on them is tax free. Only think is you have to have already paid taxes on that money when invested. I have been transferring my traditional IRAs to a roth IRA. I have to pay taxes on that money but when reinvested but that interest is tax free. As far as the stock market the key is finding some one who you can trust. Proven investment corporation are probably the best. An older person who has done it for years might be best. The younger people seem to be more worried about what they make instead of the client. Bank just love for you to take your money out. They make millions that away. I would say if your scared of the stock market have your invested transfer it to a fixed fund. Over the long haul you wont make as much money if you stay in the market but still a lot more than banks. Your age will make a difference. Tough decisions to make . I definetly would recommend to all of you out there, Check in to those roth IRAs. There the best thing for your retirement. I am not a stock broker. Just an individual like you all are that try to get the most for my money. Just my 3 cents worth.
 
Some of them have some talent, but what most people do not realize is that stock brokers are first and foremost salesman. This becomes abundantly clear this time of year when my tax clients email me and say their broker wants to "consult" with me about their "situation". What they REALLY want is a shot at getting me on the phone so they can try to get referrals.
 
Saw an article today about the Chinese economy only growing at 6.7% annual rate. Everyone predicted that they could not keep up double digit growth for the long term, and now when it falls under 10% those same people act like it's a disaster. Moderation is never a disaster.
 
(quoted from post at 07:56:07 01/16/16) The market is in a temporary down-hill slide, so it may be cheaper to get in. However if you want to survive, you must be able to stay in for the long-haul. That being said, you should be aware that if we elect a nnalert administration this year,all controls will be rescinded and the market will crash worse than in 2008.
Click to expand...

It's sad that you believe that. Think back. Why did the economy grow so rapidly under Clinton? Because right after he was elected his singed legislation that made credit so easy a person on welfare could buy a home. And everyone started living on credit. That also lead to "creative financing" in the housing market. You know, where a person who had a 150K home budget but could now buy a 300K home with a huge jump in payments X number of year down the road? What DIRECTLY lead to the housing meltdown (most of the homes that went into foreclosure were not cheap welfare homes they were the 250K or more homes)! Don't get me wrong. Carter, Regan and Bush all did something to make credit easier but Clinton is they one who push it over the top. By the time he left office you have people spending 110% of their annual income because of easy credit. So nnalert have removed controls too.

Rick
 
(quoted from post at 23:44:13 01/15/16) I toke all my money out in 2008 and stuck it in CD's--not much of a gain but it is all safe and there when i want it
Click to expand...

...and you missed out on 7 yrs of growth!

I'm in for the long haul so I'm using a model in my 401k investments, gets more conservative as you get older but still has a lot in the market. Yes, it is down right now but will go back up, it always has. My MIL got panicked by a big crash several years ago ('95 maybe?) and ask me is she should move everything to money market accounts. I told her NO! By moving it you lock in the loss. The market recovered and in a short time she not only got back the loss but was in the market when it shot up. She ended up with a comfortable retirement nest egg. She squandered part of it on a motorhome that she can't afford to make payments on now with the passing of the FIL, but that's a different life lesson that she never consulted me about.
 
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