Investments 2015

MarkB_MI · Jan 1, 2016

Time once again to see how the "Guns and Gold" investment strategy panned out versus the stock market. Last time was one year ago. (<a href="http://www.yesterdaystractors.com/cgi-bin/viewit.cgi?bd=ttalk&th=1526212">http://www.yesterdaystractors.com/cgi-bin/viewit.cgi?bd=ttalk&th=1526212"</a>)

Gun prices were fairly flat in 2015, after falling for the past several years. The Bushmaster "Patrolman's Carbine" has been selling for around $750 at the local Dunham's sporting goods store; up fifty bucks from a year ago. So say up seven percent.

The London fix for gold started the year at $1172/oz and ended at $1060. Down a whopping ten percent.

It wasn't a great year for the stock market. The closing price of the S&P 500 index on January 2 was 2058, and it closed yesterday at 2044. Down less than one percent.

Conclusion: For adherents of the Guns 'n' Gold strategy, any gains on the guns side were wiped out by gold losses. Meanwhile, the stock market was flat for the year. Call it a tie for 2015.

coshoo · Jan 1, 2016

I think of gold and silver as an "Armageddon" investment. Most of us also have money in other, more conventional investments, and if markets go up, we make a few bucks. The metals are for when everything goes south. If that never happens, so much the better, but better safe than sorry. Guys weren't jumping out of windows in '29 because they were holding too much precious metal.

steve_in_mo · Jan 1, 2016

Gold and silver are a highly attractive but strictly emotional investment. If everything goes south as you conjecture, why would someone give you his food or clothing for your shiny metal pieces when he has little hope of replacing that food or clothing? He and his family will need food and clothing soon enough.

Two Dogs · Jan 1, 2016

Maybe he can then go trade those shiny objects for something he needs more from someone else. TDF

sotxbill · Jan 1, 2016

Did you figure dividends into your stock returns???? That would push you over easily.

John T · Jan 1, 2016

I believe in DIVERSITY so no way Id have allllllllll in guns or gold, but still like some as a possible hedge (but NO warranty if that's right or wrong, I cant predict the future lol) . I consider a good general mix to be the best, I have some in Mutual Funds, some in money funds, real estate, and dabble in precious metals like gold or silver etc. and made some good money doing so, lucky maybe lol

Now if we could predict the future and know where to invest be it stocks or bonds or gold or silver or guns etc wowwwwwwwwwwww so since we cant I say diversify and try a good mix of them all UNLESS SOMEONE HERE CAN GUARANTEE WHAT ANY WILL DO???????????

Invest wisely and diversify and study and make informed choices and consider the advice of professionals or persons here or your brother in law AT YOUR OWN RISK

John T

Duggers · Jan 1, 2016

external_linkNOMICS, kind of reminds me of the late 70s, but we had a manufacturing base in the 70s and the press had a lot more integrity.

Pair-a-dice farm · Jan 1, 2016

I don't have a lot of money to invest in anything. What I have I tend to invest in the "stock" market. I figure when the market crashes I can eat well and help feed my neighbors. I've made a little money in the paper stock market too but I trust a more tangible investment. One thing they taught in my college investment classes was to never buy into a high market, whatever it is. That and diversify.

Gambles · Jan 1, 2016

I saw on the news a few days ago that Warren Buffet lost hundreds of millions of dollars on just the IBM stock alone last year.
This is the same guy who says the rich should pay more taxes and yet employs hundreds of accountants so that HE doesn't have to pay more taxes.
Yep, sometimes there is karma.

MarkB_MI · Jan 1, 2016

>Did you figure dividends into your stock returns???? That would push you over easily

Ah, good point. Current dividend yield for the S&P 500 is ~2 percent. Adding that to the one percent drop in in the index gives a net return of one percent.

MarkB_MI · Jan 1, 2016

>I saw on the news a few days ago that Warren Buffet lost hundreds of millions of dollars on just the IBM stock alone last year.

It's a paper loss until he cashes out his position. Or, to be specific, if and when Berkshire Hathaway sells its IBM stock. Ya win some ya lose some; a single share of B-H that sold for 20 bucks in 1967 is worth almost 200 grand today. I don't think Berkshire stockholders are sweating that much over Warren's bad bet on IBM.

coshoo · Jan 1, 2016

That's right, Two Dogs, and that's exactly how an underground economy arises in those situations, when folks get tired of wheeling their useless paper money around in wheelbarrows.

David G · Jan 1, 2016

I had my second worst financial year in business, it was not due to the economy, just due to my main customer making bad decisions and the time it took me to diversify.

4wdtom · Jan 1, 2016

I have thought for sometime now that the economy will not get better until we get rid of external_link, and it won't get better then if we get the female version of him either.

Ian Beale · Jan 1, 2016

Some interesting reading at

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/12/11/market-glance/

He posts periodically. More explanation in the "Racing Stocks" section

Frank41 · Jan 1, 2016

We had a local farmer that was a REAL character. We has another OBNOXIOUS blow heart that was always talking about the "DOW". The first one always said he didn't care about the DOW, he didn't raise any of that. He said that he would go to the Department of Aggravation and sign up.

What little stock that we have is not longer with Edward Jones but Vanguard, who don't expense you to death. Make your own mistakes.

RBoots · Jan 1, 2016

Guns are stupid high around here at auctions, sometimes selling for $100 or $150 HIGHER than it can be bought new at the local gun shop. That has been the case probably 90% of the time around here for a few years now. That AR at Dunham's, if at an auction around here would likely have brought $900. Some people must not check into the price of new guns or just get caught up in their bidding.

Ross

ajl · Jan 1, 2016

S and P did 1.4% after dividends are factored in. Not great but better than most other exchanges like Toronto and London who were negative for the year. The global economy remains weak for the foreseeable and likely for the next 30 years. The US economy is relatively strong at the moment which is not saying much for the others.

Dalex · Jan 1, 2016

I'll second Vanguard , I've had excellent results from them ....

Rich_WI · Jan 1, 2016

(quoted from post at 09:59:19 01/01/16)
Gun prices were fairly flat in 2015, after falling for the past several years. The Bushmaster "Patrolman's Carbine" has been selling for around $750 at the local Dunham's sporting goods store; up fifty bucks from a year ago. So say up seven percent.

Actually the Bushmaster is $849.99, acording to Dunham's. Just a month ago for Black Friday sales, it was on sale for $799.99 with an additional manufacturers rebate of $200. Note the ad though, $849.99 is normal price at Dunhams (even though they list MSRP of $1200). But hey, its your lie and your rationalizing your inability to afford gold so tell it any way you want.... but to be accurate, that makes "guns" up over 13%.

http://slickdeals.net/f/8290611-dun...ushmaster-patrolmans-carbine-rifle-for-599-99
http://slickdeals.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=3807753&d=1448297308

Its also worth noting, windshield wiper blades are stagnant this year, so using Marks logic, nobody should ever have invested in those this year.... right?

MarkB_MI · Jan 2, 2016

>Actually the Bushmaster is $849.99, acording to Dunham's.

Yes, that's the price per this weekend's flyer (which wasn't out yesterday). The price just before Christmas was $750 after rebate. And as you point out, it has been as cheap as $600 after rebate during the past year; hardly an indication of rising prices.

I'm not familiar with the "windshield wiper blades and gold" investment strategy. Perhaps you can enlighten me.

Rich_WI · Jan 2, 2016

(quoted from post at 09:21:43 01/02/16) >Actually the Bushmaster is $849.99, acording to Dunham's.

Yes, that's the price per this weekend's flyer (which wasn't out yesterday).

Wrong, the price is from over a month ago during the Black Friday sales and the flyer that I linked to was from that same time. $849.99 is Dunham's current price, the end of the year price, NOT $750 as you say. Thus, according to your yardstick, "guns" are up 13% (actually a shave over)

(quoted from post at 09:21:43 01/02/16) The price just before Christmas was $750 after rebate. And as you point out, it has been as cheap as $600 after rebate during the past year; hardly an indication of rising prices.

Nope. Normal price was $849.99, according to Dunham's, thats what they said it was being sold for. Call me crazy but if anybody would know, I think Dunham's would know. During the Black Friday sales, they put it on sale for $799.99 (not $750 like you are lying about) and there also was $200 manufacturer rebate for a total price of $599.99. Its all right at the link I posted, its easy to read and its right from the horses mouth so to speak. Dunham's is telling you what the price is, why are you making up other prices?

So there it is, proof, right from Dunham's, the price of "guns" are up just over 13%.

Hammers are down 1% this year, according to your logic, nobody should have bought a hammer this year because they are a "bad investment".

Investments 2015

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