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Is the economy looking better....

E

Eldon (WA)

Well-known Member
or am I just lucky? I do custom tractor work in the area and am closing in on 150 jobs already this year, and the busy season hasn't started yet! Add our 6 acres of roadside produce to the mix and we are busier than a one legged man in an azz kickin contest LOL! I might have to break down and hire Bryce :eek:

What's it like in your area?
 
The economy actually contracted (shrank) .7% in the first quarter. That doesn't sound like much but it represents the worst average 1st quarter GDP under any president in history.

I'm glad you are doing well and I'm glad that I am doing well, but others are not.
 
I think it is about like it has been for the last year, unemployment is really low, but wages are not up.
 
Eldon, I read all of your posts with interest. With regard to doing custom work for others; do you think that it increases your maintenance costs much, if at all? I know you do a lot with the rotary cutter. Do you have many tire problems from being on unfamiliar property? I see that you have a fleet of Allis-Chalmers and that they seem to do what you need to do. You are like Southwest Airlines with fleet commonality! How do you figure transportation costs into a job? What is a good hourly rate out there for a tractor and rotary cutter or flail mower?

Garry
 
I think people are waiting for the "other shoe" to drop. Most families do not see any significant increase in their take home pay. property taxes, sales tax, gas tax, ETC are going up. Disposable income is going down. Repair business is good, who can afford new?
 
Just read in the local paper of a factory in town closing with 175 jobs lost, not great work, but good, honest jobs. I try to tell the young guys I work with how good we have it, but they still sit and complain too much. I have done a lot worse for a LOT less.
 
530 off at our pipe mill because of low oil prices -- lots of high-end homes and toys for sale --nowbody realy
buying old tractors , haven't had any offers on mine yet --talking to the most popular auctioneer and he says
prices are low and now big market for old iron except the menonites buying old stuff

Larry --ont
 
(quoted from post at 19:05:33 05/29/15) Eldon, I read all of your posts with interest. With regard to doing custom work for others; do you think that it increases your maintenance costs much, if at all? I know you do a lot with the rotary cutter. Do you have many tire problems from being on unfamiliar property? I see that you have a fleet of Allis-Chalmers and that they seem to do what you need to do. You are like Southwest Airlines with fleet commonality! How do you figure transportation costs into a job? What is a good hourly rate out there for a tractor and rotary cutter or flail mower?

Garry
Click to expand...

Garry I think maintenance costs are the same for me. I do all the work myself, and know my equipment well...that is the key. As far as doing new jobs, you get to know what questions to ask when someone calls. Google earth has been a big help. Normally I can get people with small jobs to wait until I group more in an area so I don't have to charge travel time. I may lose a few jobs, but most will offer to pay more if I expedite the job. I charge $75 an hour for the 8' bush hog when mowing...most of my competition is hobby farmers that try it for awhile and find they can't compete or realize it isn't all fun and games.
 
(quoted from post at 19:50:54 05/29/15)
(quoted from post at 19:05:33 05/29/15) Eldon, I read all of your posts with interest. With regard to doing custom work for others; do you think that it increases your maintenance costs much, if at all? I know you do a lot with the rotary cutter. Do you have many tire problems from being on unfamiliar property? I see that you have a fleet of Allis-Chalmers and that they seem to do what you need to do. You are like Southwest Airlines with fleet commonality! How do you figure transportation costs into a job? What is a good hourly rate out there for a tractor and rotary cutter or flail mower?

Garry
Click to expand...

Garry I think maintenance costs are the same for me. I do all the work myself, and know my equipment well...that is the key. As far as doing new jobs, you get to know what questions to ask when someone calls. Google earth has been a big help. Normally I can get people with small jobs to wait until I group more in an area so I don't have to charge travel time. I may lose a few jobs, but most will offer to pay more if I expedite the job. I charge $75 an hour for the 8' bush hog when mowing...most of my competition is hobby farmers that try it for awhile and find they can't compete or realize it isn't all fun and games.
Click to expand...

As an example, here are a set of blades I bought for the Bush Hog for $140. I ran them all last summer (approx. 300 hours) and they still look pretty good. Most of my jobs are in rock country, so I take pride in getting that many hours without sharpening them...now if I hired someone to run the mower they would probably look like that after the first job LOL!
 
The economy and the stock market are two entirely different things.

The stock market is being propped up by the federal reserve and has been for far too long. This is about to come to an end.

Stay tuned.

Dean
 
The OP ask about each persons area.

Here not so hot but not terrible. Construction guys are back at it but the tourist season is off to a slow start. Weather hasn't been great for getting out on the lakes. So local places are not hiring as much as they normally would.

Rick
 
Lots of people want to buy, but they don't have any money to pay. Saw new statistics this week that said 75% of the population is now living paycheck to paycheck. Seems those nasty credit cards are keeping them broke.

Just curious: Are all you customers actually paying you when you finish the job?
 
Compared to what? The difference between six years ago and now is night and day here in SE Michigan. All I have to do for confirmation is to open up the classified ad section of our local paper. Back in '09, there would be thirty or more foreclosure notices; today's paper has exactly one foreclosure. Before there would be no "help wanted" ads aside from the usual "work from home" scams. Today there are a couple of pages of employment ads, even though very few employers bother to list jobs in the paper anymore.

Those of us working in the auto industry will be forever grateful to the rest of the country for coming to our rescue when our industry was on the brink of collapse.
 
Lest we forget.....
During the Great Depression the majority of people were still working - majority being over 50% of the work force. Some people made money, some lost everything. Even in the worst of times, some will still make money. My grandparents made it through the depression OK. They were bootleggers. My grandmother drove a Pierce Arrow automobile when most folks could not even afford a car.

My not-so-humble opinion is that if a president wants to take credit for an improving economy, that president should also be prepared to take the blame for a failing economy. HOWEVER....NO PRESIDENT ever put a dollar in my pocket. Several have taken dollars OUT of my pockets, though.
 

Not great at all here. In fact I've seen no real change since the 2005-08 period. Taxes are up, costs are up, wages stagnant or dropping. The only bright spot has been lowered fuel prices. I know municipal costs are far higher than they were 2 years ago for things like salt, sand, tires, etc. Taxes will follow.

I don't see any change coming for the good unless we take some serious measures tax and regulation wise and monetarily. That's not likely to happen.

It's said September may be when things take a turn for the worse. I hope they are wrong...
 
For the past six years or so the economy has looked good in a quarter when there's an election, then compensates the next quarter. Think 2016 it going to look like a good year?
 
If nobody can afford a new car the how can sales be so good? The auto industry is doing quite well again, and that's a big part of our economy, good thing we bailed them out, Chrysler and GM.
 
MN is doing OK, the iron range is being hit now, because of Chinese imports and a drop in worldwide demand, and ag prices aren't too good. Wood products industry is OK and beef cattle are great. Lots of help wanted signs. Building and road construction (repair) are strong.
 
(quoted from post at 03:37:20 05/30/15) Lest we forget.....
During the Great Depression the majority of people were still working - majority being over 50% of the work force. Some people made money, some lost everything. Even in the worst of times, some will still make money. My grandparents made it through the depression OK. They were bootleggers. My grandmother drove a Pierce Arrow automobile when most folks could not even afford a car.

My not-so-humble opinion is that if a president wants to take credit for an improving economy, that president should also be prepared to take the blame for a failing economy. HOWEVER....NO PRESIDENT ever put a dollar in my pocket. Several have taken dollars OUT of my pockets, though.
Click to expand...

Jim, according to the official government numbers you are right about unemployment during the great depression. But keep in mind there were few government agencies, no computers or internet and the government wasn't nearly as intrusive.

Today some leading historians who are studying the Great Depression think that at it's peak unemployment ran as high as 80%.

But according to the news and government the crash that kicked off our current recession was the worst in the history of America. If you look at dollars and cents it was. If you look at % it pales to the crash of 1929.

Rick
 
Yup.
And every day is a holiday and every meal a banquet.
The help wanted signs are for low wage jobs and there is no industry left.
My work is nowhere near the level it was before the crash and I doubt it ever will be.
Recreational property ownership which was a sign of prosperity is still in the tank.
But some are doing well. Government workers, day care providers are doing well as people try to work two jobs to make ends meet and the rental market is strong because no one can afford to buy homes any more.
 
In my neck of the woods there are a lot of construction jobs. Part of them are due to some new bridges being built...government pay. There is a new chicken processing plant being built that is keeping some busy for a while. Costs are still high for most necessities but gas is cheaper than last year. There are several state parks in my area. According to them the park attendance is way down. Part of that may be to the weather but they tell me that it has been steady decline for the last few years. That seems to indicate that people are just hanging on to their money or just getting by.
 
kind of a trade off.
I'm retired,
My son, a steelworker, has been working steadily with no lay-offs
for months now, and future jobs look to be increasing.
But, the actual day to day cash in our pockets still
seems to be shrinking.
(NY, so we are used to that LOL)
 
(quoted from post at 01:30:11 05/30/15) Lots of people want to buy, but they don't have any money to pay. Saw new statistics this week that said 75% of the population is now living paycheck to paycheck. Seems those nasty credit cards are keeping them broke.

Just curious: Are all you customers actually paying you when you finish the job?
Click to expand...

I typically have one or two jobs a year where the payment is slow. I still have that big mowing job to get paid for...got my fingers crossed. I know he has the assets to back it up, so I'll get it one way or another. Most are tickled to see someone show up when they say they will, do the job they say they will do....and are willing to throw in a tip on top of it :D
 
(quoted from post at 06:35:24 05/30/15) Yup.
And every day is a holiday and every meal a banquet.
The help wanted signs are for low wage jobs and there is no industry left.
My work is nowhere near the level it was before the crash and I doubt it ever will be.
Recreational property ownership which was a sign of prosperity is still in the tank.
But some are doing well. Government workers, day care providers are doing well as people try to work two jobs to make ends meet and the rental market is strong because no one can afford to buy homes any more.
Click to expand...

Just got home from doing a job and noticed the Harley Davidson parking lot was full of potential buyers, RV lots are filled with now RV's, see quite a few on the road. A few big commercial building going up...lots of people out doing things.
 
Our ATV friendly RV park here on the left coast has seen the best winter since '08, probably mostly due to lack of snow,good weather and gas prices.

But that being said every time a reservation is made they are sent an email and I am cc'd, last year at this time I had 900 or so in the outlook folder, right now 1768, local restaurants are reporting the same, light at the end of the tunnel?? can only hope

G
 
(quoted from post at 19:37:41 05/29/15) or am I just lucky? I do custom tractor work in the area and am closing in on 150 jobs already this year, and the busy season hasn't started yet! Add our 6 acres of roadside produce to the mix and we are busier than a one legged man in an azz kickin contest LOL! I might have to break down and hire Bryce :eek:

What's it like in your area?
Click to expand...

Everybody sellin' their equipment to buy bread and beans???
 
(quoted from post at 09:51:51 05/30/15) If nobody can afford a new car the how can sales be so good? The auto industry is doing quite well again, and that's a big part of our economy, good thing we bailed them out, Chrysler and GM.
Click to expand...

You don't think 6, 7, 8 year loans at under 2% have anything to do with that? As long as the Fed lends money at no real interest and banks can use it then the economy will be boosted by that. It's why your savings account and CD don't pay anything anymore. It costs to artificially support as failing economy/society.
 
We don't have a loan on our new car, and we don't invest in cd's at this low rate, that would be stupid! With the stock market setting record highs, why invest in savings or cd's. Municipal bonds are very good also.
 
>You don't think 6, 7, 8 year loans at under 2% have anything to do with that?

Bret, you need a JOB to get a LOAN.

The Fed is doing exactly what it said it would do: Keep interest rates down to get people working. Like it or not, it's working.
 
(quoted from post at 11:46:12 05/31/15) >You don't think 6, 7, 8 year loans at under 2% have anything to do with that?

Bret, you need a JOB to get a LOAN.

The Fed is doing exactly what it said it would do: Keep interest rates down to get people working. Like it or not, it's working.
Click to expand...


No, all you need is enough credit to get the loan. I see people making min wage or a little more with new trucks. It's not because they have a great job, it's because they can swing a 72 month payment plan.

Maye things are better where you are. We never had any real "good times" up here when the rest of the country was rolling in dough. Yes, there are lots of new cars sold- to service men (we live near Ft Drum), gov't employees, municipal employees, people in healthcare or it's related industries. But you don't see too much in the "new" anything area outside of those folks. Maybe that's a "recovery" to some folks, but when my neighbors are sweating out the falling price of milk and others are working 2 or 3 part time jobs it's not what I'd consider a return to prosperity.
 
(quoted from post at 09:23:55 05/31/15) We don't have a loan on our new car, and we don't invest in cd's at this low rate, that would be stupid! With the stock market setting record highs, why invest in savings or cd's. Municipal bonds are very good also.
Click to expand...

So since you apparently are doing fine then that's proof everyone else is rolling in cash? You really want to point to the stock market as proof things are all sunshine and lollypops?
 
(quoted from post at 09:48:02 05/30/15)
Those of us working in the auto industry will be forever grateful to the rest of the country for coming to our rescue when our industry was on the brink of collapse.
Click to expand...

You're welcome, but it happened at the expense of the bond holders, you know, the little old men and ladies who depended on that income for part of their retirement. It's nice you got to keep your job at the expense of those retirees. In my opinion it was an illegal bailout but no one dared challenge "The One" over how it was done. It should have collapsed and let it come back naturally. Does anyone think that GM's assets wouldn't have been picked up and mfg. wouldn't continue?
 
The economy in my area improved slightly in mid 2012 and has remained pretty flat since then. Low fuel prices have helped free up a little money for some people.

New home construction has improved....it's now UP to a little over 10% of what it was before the economy tanked! Existing home prices are still 20% or more below what they were in 2008.
Remodeling and home repair is steady but most are on a tight budget.

A guy that runs a local auto repair shop says business is booming. He stays very busy keeping cars with 300,000 miles running.
A friend that works at a new car dealer says new car sales are steady, but only about 60% of what they were ten years ago.

The local shopping mall looks like a ghost town.

I have a buddy that runs a dirt track. He's one of the premiere promoters in the sport. Car counts at hist track are about 55% of what they were 10 years ago and attendance is terrible. Most people in this area don't have much discretionary income.

I don't know what your costs of doing business are, but in this area I'd expect someone charging $75 an hour and no travel charge to have all the work they could handle.
 
(quoted from post at 21:53:42 05/31/15)
(quoted from post at 09:48:02 05/30/15)
Those of us working in the auto industry will be forever grateful to the rest of the country for coming to our rescue when our industry was on the brink of collapse.
Click to expand...

You're welcome, but it happened at the expense of the bond holders, you know, the little old men and ladies who depended on that income for part of their retirement. It's nice you got to keep your job at the expense of those retirees. In my opinion it was an illegal bailout but no one dared challenge "The One" over how it was done. It should have collapsed and let it come back naturally. Does anyone think that GM's assets wouldn't have been picked up and mfg. wouldn't continue?
Click to expand...

Well said. A whole mess of people got shafted big time in that debacle. Illegal? Maybe, maybe not. Unethical? Immoral? Most certainly.
 
We are doing OK, but we have most everythng paid off, wife has good job, I got both my kids working now.

But I think our economy is artificial and in trouble.

We have more people out of the workforce than ever.
We have more people of welfare than ever.
Number of people on disability is way up.
Social security is not going to be able to absorb all the people getting older.
And there are tons of governement (city, county, teachers, etc) that have retirement funds that are way underfunded.
Not to mention the "unfunded liabilities" the governement has.

I put my retirement money in an Edward Jones acct. but put it in a very low risk account, with as little as possible in stocks.

I still think we are in for a stock market "bust".

Gene
 
(quoted from post at 22:02:35 05/31/15) The economy in my area improved slightly in mid 2012 and has remained pretty flat since then. Low fuel prices have helped free up a little money for some people.

New home construction has improved....it's now UP to a little over 10% of what it was before the economy tanked! Existing home prices are still 20% or more below what they were in 2008.
Remodeling and home repair is steady but most are on a tight budget.

A guy that runs a local auto repair shop says business is booming. He stays very busy keeping cars with 300,000 miles running.
A friend that works at a new car dealer says new car sales are steady, but only about 60% of what they were ten years ago.

The local shopping mall looks like a ghost town.

I have a buddy that runs a dirt track. He's one of the premiere promoters in the sport. Car counts at hist track are about 55% of what they were 10 years ago and attendance is terrible. Most people in this area don't have much discretionary income.

I don't know what your costs of doing business are, but in this area I'd expect someone charging $75 an hour and no travel charge to have all the work they could handle.
Click to expand...

My costs run about 10% of gross....and yes I am busy.
 
(quoted from post at 15:24:56 05/30/15)
(quoted from post at 01:30:11 05/30/15) Lots of people want to buy, but they don't have any money to pay. Saw new statistics this week that said 75% of the population is now living paycheck to paycheck. Seems those nasty credit cards are keeping them broke.

Just curious: Are all you customers actually paying you when you finish the job?
Click to expand...

I typically have one or two jobs a year where the payment is slow. I still have that big mowing job to get paid for...got my fingers crossed. I know he has the assets to back it up, so I'll get it one way or another. Most are tickled to see someone show up when they say they will, do the job they say they will do....and are willing to throw in a tip on top of it :D
Click to expand...

Got the big check today! :D :D :D
 
(quoted from post at 12:05:53 06/01/15)
(quoted from post at 21:53:42 05/31/15)
(quoted from post at 09:48:02 05/30/15)
Those of us working in the auto industry will be forever grateful to the rest of the country for coming to our rescue when our industry was on the brink of collapse.
Click to expand...

You're welcome, but it happened at the expense of the bond holders, you know, the little old men and ladies who depended on that income for part of their retirement. It's nice you got to keep your job at the expense of those retirees. In my opinion it was an illegal bailout but no one dared challenge "The One" over how it was done. It should have collapsed and let it come back naturally. Does anyone think that GM's assets wouldn't have been picked up and mfg. wouldn't continue?
Click to expand...

Well said. A whole mess of people got shafted big time in that debacle. Illegal? Maybe, maybe not. Unethical? Immoral? Most certainly.
Click to expand...

No kidding! I did not have any skin in that game, but the bondholders got the short end of the stick.
 
(quoted from post at 01:34:22 06/05/15)
(quoted from post at 12:05:53 06/01/15)
(quoted from post at 21:53:42 05/31/15)
(quoted from post at 09:48:02 05/30/15)
Those of us working in the auto industry will be forever grateful to the rest of the country for coming to our rescue when our industry was on the brink of collapse.
Click to expand...

You're welcome, but it happened at the expense of the bond holders, you know, the little old men and ladies who depended on that income for part of their retirement. It's nice you got to keep your job at the expense of those retirees. In my opinion it was an illegal bailout but no one dared challenge "The One" over how it was done. It should have collapsed and let it come back naturally. Does anyone think that GM's assets wouldn't have been picked up and mfg. wouldn't continue?
Click to expand...

Well said. A whole mess of people got shafted big time in that debacle. Illegal? Maybe, maybe not. Unethical? Immoral? Most certainly.
Click to expand...

No kidding! I did not have any skin in that game, but the bondholders got the short end of the stick.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but the union bosses were happy. They pretty much own Chrysler now I'm told.
 
(quoted from post at 11:27:19 06/05/15) Fiat and stockholders own Chrysler now. And it's doing great
Click to expand...

Who owns the stock? According to Reuters, Fiat (the Italian Gov't) owns 53% and change of Chrysler and the rest of the stock is owned by a UAW health care trust known as VEBA.
 
(quoted from post at 07:49:27 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 11:27:19 06/05/15) Fiat and stockholders own Chrysler now. And it's doing great
Click to expand...

Who owns the stock? According to Reuters, Fiat (the Italian Gov't) owns 53% and change of Chrysler and the rest of the stock is owned by a UAW health care trust known as VEBA.
Click to expand...
on't be misled by thinking that gov't is holding interest rates down to create jobs. The real reason is because the gov't is running on borrowed money & must keep rates down to keep that crap up.
 
(quoted from post at 04:49:27 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 11:27:19 06/05/15) Fiat and stockholders own Chrysler now. And it's doing great
Click to expand...

Who owns the stock? According to Reuters, Fiat (the Italian Gov't) owns 53% and change of Chrysler and the rest of the stock is owned by a UAW health care trust known as VEBA.
Click to expand...

The VEBA never owned a controlling interest, and Chrysler bought them out a couple years ago. The Italian government does not own FIAT, it's owned by the Agnelli family, as it has been forever.
 
(quoted from post at 09:20:54 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 07:49:27 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 11:27:19 06/05/15) Fiat and stockholders own Chrysler now. And it's doing great
Click to expand...

Who owns the stock? According to Reuters, Fiat (the Italian Gov't) owns 53% and change of Chrysler and the rest of the stock is owned by a UAW health care trust known as VEBA.
Click to expand...
on't be misled by thinking that gov't is holding interest rates down to create jobs. The real reason is because the gov't is running on borrowed money & must keep rates down to keep that crap up.
Click to expand...

That thought never crossed my mind. You don't have $18 TRILLION in debt and a purposely devalued currency without consequences.
 
(quoted from post at 09:55:20 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 04:49:27 06/07/15)
(quoted from post at 11:27:19 06/05/15) Fiat and stockholders own Chrysler now. And it's doing great
Click to expand...

Who owns the stock? According to Reuters, Fiat (the Italian Gov't) owns 53% and change of Chrysler and the rest of the stock is owned by a UAW health care trust known as VEBA.
Click to expand...

The VEBA never owned a controlling interest, and Chrysler bought them out a couple years ago. The Italian government does not own FIAT, it's owned by the Agnelli family, as it has been forever.
Click to expand...

I didn't say controlling interest and the rest is as it reported by Reuters. If Chrysler did buy out VEBA recently, then the UAW no doubt made an obscene amount of money with little to no investment. Fiat was is still rated just above "junk" as far as I can tell. Sounds to me like Chrysler bailout out Fiat with tax payer dollars.
 
Agree 100%. Big part of my retirement went bye-bye with the bailout. Never thought the federal judiciary would bow down to external_link and ignore bankruptcy law to stiff the secured creditors and GIVE the majority of the companies to the UAW workers to fund their retirement health care, something that few of us in the rest of the country even get. That's why I will never buy another UAW built car/truck again.
 
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