Bred cows and Heifers

Bred Cows and open replacement Heifers are both sharply
lower, I figured they would stay stronger longer due to feed and hay
are both plentiful and cheap. Buying now so I guess I'll find out
whether they are a deal or not this fall.

I really think that the long term future of the beef market is sharply lower. The general economy is not that good. Even with gas prices down just about everything else is up. So the average consumer just does not have the money to buy higher priced beef. When hamburger is $5 a pound in the store and you can buy hams for $2 which is going to get bought? So even with feed cost coming down the feeder cattle market is heading lower.

I also think that the price if cows and bred heifers needs to come down before there is any herd expansion. Right now a heifer is just worth too much when sold on the fat market.

Heard some guys talking about how $3000 bred heifers would pencil out. They where talking about the calf being worth $1500 next fall. I think they where way off in their numbers. I do not think that the calf market will be that good.

I have no doubt they will all get cheaper, quick, but it is still unusual in my area for bred cows to sell at a discount to fat culls this time of year. We have rye grass 6-8 inches tall and have had plenty of rain, all we need is our normal 70 degree daytime temps throughout Feb and early March and the rye grass will be belly deep to a tall giraffe.

It’s pork over beef in America for first time since 1952.

As pork output in 2015 jumps 4.6 percent to a record, cattle ranchers have yet to recover from a 2012 drought, and beef production is headed for a 22-year low, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.
Untitled URL Link

I don't think we will ever see calves as high as they were this past fall. Those prices were truly incredible. I don't forsee a massive fallout in the feeder market this coming year simply because cow numbers are still super low and feed is cheap. Despite the fact that less people are eating beef, there is still enough of a calf shortage to keep the feeder prices decent. With more cattle on feed now and in the coming year due to continued lower grain prices, shouldn't the prices in stores start to trend downward some?

Yeah, but pork prices tanked and beef prices hit record highs, although I would walk just as far for a center cut pork chop as I would for a T-bone steak.

(quoted from post at 22:08:57 02/03/15) I have no doubt they will all get cheaper, quick, but it is still unusual in my area for bred cows to sell at a discount to fat culls this time of year. We have rye grass 6-8 inches tall and have had plenty of rain, all we need is our normal 70 degree daytime temps throughout Feb and early March and the rye grass will be belly deep to a tall giraffe.

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LAA it is great that you have the pasture and the market that is working for you. You should be fine with those numbers. Good luck!!

Me too.

I'll have a few breeding age heifers for sale this spring. I was hoping for strong heifer prices based on the same reasons you stated above. Perhaps I should have let them go with my steers this past fall.

Good brats are where it's at.

Yes my neighbors rye field looks very good also even though he has been grazing it hard as his cows will start calving in the next couple of weeks.

Lynchburg, VA Weekly Feeder Cattle Sale

State Graded Weighted Average for Feb 02, 2015

Feeder Cattle 824 (Steers 222; Heifers 349; Bulls 253)

Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
2 300-400 385 286.00 286.00
25 400-500 465 255.00-258.50 258.08
24 500-600 542 236.75-240.00 237.27
22 600-700 637 211.75 211.75
12 700-800 738 191.50 191.50

Feeder Steers Medium and Large 2
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
19 300-400 366 285.00-294.50 293.97
35 400-500 442 258.50-265.00 264.44
32 500-600 550 225.00-238.00 237.60
16 600-700 640 210.00 210.00
1 700-800 765 182.00 182.00

Feeder Steers Medium and Large 3
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
5 300-400 335 276.00-284.00 282.42
10 400-500 437 253.00 253.00
5 500-600 517 218.00-237.00 233.14
3 600-700 647 187.00 187.00

Feeder Steers Small 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
4 300-400 350 286.00 286.00
4 400-500 448 240.00 240.00
1 500-600 580 201.00 201.00
1 600-700 610 180.00 180.00
1 700-800 720 160.00 160.00

Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
3 300-400 375 269.00 269.00
22 400-500 460 232.50-236.00 235.53
18 500-600 552 212.50-214.00 212.58
16 600-700 638 197.50 197.50
2 700-800 727 175.00 175.00

Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 2
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
43 300-400 360 268.00-269.00 268.05
82 400-500 445 233.00-235.50 235.41
35 500-600 547 214.00-215.00 214.97
10 600-700 647 202.50 202.50

Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 3
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
26 300-400 352 262.50 262.50
39 400-500 443 220.00-232.75 231.78
13 500-600 542 202.00 202.00
1 600-700 675 179.00 179.00

Feeder Heifers Small 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
7 300-400 368 250.00-259.00 256.37
22 400-500 448 201.00-218.00 215.57
8 500-600 529 183.00-194.00 191.30
2 600-700 612 175.00 175.00

Feeder Bulls Medium and Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
1 300-400 330 320.00 320.00
41 400-500 459 244.00-289.00 258.72
mostly 244.00-280.50
15 500-600 572 210.00-219.50 218.90
5 600-700 628 195.00 195.00

Feeder Bulls Medium and Large 2
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
25 300-400 347 310.00 310.00
105 400-500 450 250.00-283.00 268.05
mostly 256.50-283.00
24 500-600 561 223.50 223.50
8 600-700 617 205.50-206.00 205.56

Feeder Bulls Small 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
7 300-400 352 285.00 285.00
19 400-500 451 236.00-250.00 246.98
3 500-600 543 189.00 189.00

Prices per hundredweight unless otherwise stated.
Price and grade information is reported by VDACS Livestock Marketing
and disseminated by Virginia Market News Service. While market reports
reflect the majority of cattle at each sale, there are instances
where animals do not fit reporting categories and are not included.

Source: Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
USDA-VA Market News, Richmond, VA 804.786.3947
www.vdacs.virginia.gov/marketnews
[email protected]

0830e lae hdl




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Whats your point? Feeder cattle?

(quoted from post at 19:19:45 02/03/15) Bred Cows and open replacement Heifers are both sharply
lower, I figured they would stay stronger longer due to feed and hay
are both plentiful and cheap. Buying now so I guess I'll find out
whether they are a deal or not this fall.

Click to expand...

Wait a couple more years and they will be half price. That is when I am getting back in.

Gene

We background calves and fatten cull cows in addition to a cow/calf herd. I am always in the market but try to maintain enough flexibility in feed sources and facilities to quickly switch between classes to take advantage of down cycles or seasonal trends. In other words, I will buy anything I think I can make a dollar on but try to limit my market exposure to about 90 days except in the case of bull yearlings, I can sell tested bulls at private treaty year round.