Corn prices lately!?

What's going on in the corn market? Prices have been falling daily. One month ago today the elevator price was $5.54. Today it is $4.72. Aren't the same things that made corn $8.00 a bushel last year, still in place now?

Getting closer to harvest every day. Another thing is usage. Exports lately have been way below traders estimates.

If they were banking on the corn around here it would still be high, but they must think that leading corn producing states will have a good crop. Kansas sure won't be having a bumper crop. I'd be finding a way to feed sileage if I had corn in the ground here.

No. Market is always volatile, some times more than others. Traders rolled over the Aug contracts, working off September, which brings in new crop influence. 82 cents movement in a month is nothing- can do that in 2 days.

So much for all the guys on here and elsewhere saying that Commodity prices "couldn't" fall because it was 'different' this time.

There have been fields that haven't been in production in 30 years that were cleared up and put back into crops. Even a local golf course that went bust, it's all in corn now. I think there are more acres in production than what the government knows. And it looks like a very good year here for corn, if that means anything.

There is way more acres in corn this year than ever. Hedgerows have been removed and ground that hasent been worked in years if not decades are being worked. Early spring here in western ny and a lot of corn is taller than I've ever seen and tasseling and making ears already. Looks like a bumper crop all around. I'm glad prices are falling because with the prices last year, land values are skyrocketing and my grain bill for my cows did also. Lets see who put money away last year and who borrowed betting on high grain prices this year. Fall baby fall.

$5.56 at the local elevator which is +.60 basis. A week ago they had a +1.71 basis. Feed mill is $5.66 with a +.70 basis. Jim

It is anyones guess as to what harvest will bring. Yields will be way down in parts of the country where drought is occuring or flooding/prevent plant. Some areas will have a bumper crop. Also, throw in areas that could see a early frost.. those who planted late could be hurt by it and many fields will be at best high moisture or silage corn. Beans are a guess also. Until harvest... who knows..

Yea, I'm not betting either way. I just don't know what the rest of the country looks like. I know that around here a lot of irrigation systems went in last year. I'll bet that's a growing thing all over the place. We got local guys here who are bumping 230 BPA on irrigated corn.

Rick

Took some decent N/C "13 prices last summer for this fall. I WILL NOT price another bushel until I have decent cobs on stalks and they are at black layer. Most inconsistant and short/yellow corn I have ever raised, and now it is starving for moisture. $4.50 corn will be better than $2.56, and that was not all that long ago

Rain makes Grain.

I'm seeing a lot of irrigation going in also (SW Michigan, Allegan County.) Early corn is looking very good, all tasseled and making ears. Even my food plots caught up. May get more rain tonight.

Larry

For years we have contracted a 1/3 sold abut a 1/3 out of the field at harvest and stored about a 1/3. This spring we sold some pretty high price corn. Have a real good contract for what we figure will be about a 1/3 of the crop. Have a contract for 40,000 bu of white corn at a real good price. Had a guy come buy about 6 weeks ago and wants to buy the contract and tried to buy what we figured we would have not contracted for a figure well over $ 7.00. Have no idea where this thing is going but know we will do the same contract,store,& sell.

Always remember, "High prices cure high prices". Low prices also cure low prices.

Guys think that the corn market price is determined by the US crop and usage. Many look around their area and think that will be a good indicator of the fall price. They do not see a large enough area to be very accurate.

The run up in the corn price started 3 years ago when Russia had a short black wheat crop. They told everyone in late Aug. early Sept. that they would not be exporting any wheat. That and the fact that there where some weather shortages in other parts of the world made the World wide supply of feed grade starch low. So Corn being a feed grade starch, it started a run upward in price.

I was hauling corn for a neighbor in July of 2010 to the local ethanol plant. He was getting #3.42 cash for it.

Old saying on grain price cycles:
"You hope to make enough profit on the up swing to cover your loses on the down swing"

There are guys that drove cash rents from $180 per acre to over $400 for the same ground. Seed Corn went from costing $50 per acre to $100. There will be landlords that will not get their rent money in the near future. Corn prices do not have to hit $2 for the fun to begin this time around. The current $4-5 corn takes the fun out of it for most of the high rent guys.

With a big crop we could easily see corn in the $3-4$ range real easy.

fixerupper:

I'm not a Farmer, I'm a Miner. As I understand it the base prices that you list are the prices per bushel of corn that they pay to you, but what are those BASIS figures that you posted - are they fees or what? - I don't understand???

I don't want any corn farmers hurt, but I'm paying 18.50 @ cwt for ground corn that I used to pay $4.50 @ cwt for. A 400% plus increase in 6 years seems a bit much.

It's all speculation.

When the USDA put out that planting report that showed corn acres increased, instead of decreased because of the wet spring, everyone was shocked. The reason is the price is too enticing to pass up. Who wouldn't put corn in marginal ground when it is bringing $7+ a bushel. I know of a few who caught contracts at $8+ last august. You don't even have to know how to grow corn or be a good farmer to make money with an $8 price tag.


When the next crop report comes out in a week or so, if the bushel per acre estimate goes down, the price will get a bit of a jump, but guaranteed, if the bpa goes up or stays the same, the price will continue to fall. The good news is that the price won't fall off quite as fast this fall, as the corn belt had a delayed planting, and harvest will be delayed, and the first people to get the corn out of the field will get more on a spot sale than those taking it out last.

Let's say we get a hard killing frost in early September through the corn belt. That will stabilize the price some or drive it up just a bit, but not much.

A cold wet wet fall will have the next greatest impact, if it prevents the bulk of farmers from getting the corn out of the field.

My hope is that demand continues to increase, as the price falls, and we get back to something more normal as far as weather in the next few years. These extremes last happened to me in 1988 and 1989. too dry, to too wet... same thing...


I will say this. I do believe that the price will not stay low for long if everyone just puts that corn into bins and holds it over the winter.