Where is farming in the future, headed to?

ridgelane · Jan 20, 2012

Any speculation how agriculture will change in the years to come? Will there be small operators or will it be taken over by corporations.

I ask this as I sit here contemplating expansion or retirment.

Any thoughts will all be interesting, I'm sure.

thurlow · Jan 20, 2012

I was farming about 2,000 acres........part cow/calf and part row crop. I've been retired about 5 or 6 years and there are virtually no operations my size left around 'here'. 20-25 years ago, mine was a pretty good sized operation. Now, it's 5,000 acres, 10,000 acres and more, the operation either wholly owned by one individual or brother/brother or father/son partnerships. No one owns that much land; it's mostly rented. There will always be folks who hold down jobs and farm a little after work and on the weekends, but as a percentage of total bushels/bales/tons produced, their output is miniscule.

buickanddeere · Jan 20, 2012

Same as every other business. Large multinational corporations for the bulk of the average demand. Some med,small & family business to fill unique demands or where markets are too small for big business

Anonymous-0 · Jan 20, 2012

Imho I think the not too very distant future will feature more agricultural robotics resulting in farmers having numerous small robotic type +/-500lbs. machines/robots that can co-ordinate with each other to do large jobs to being able to do delicate tasks such as weeding and picking vegetables.It would be another agricultural revolution.This isn't really anwering your question tho lol.

ridgelane · Jan 20, 2012

Its great to hear any and all ideas. How much of the technology we have today came from some mans dreams or imagination.

As we all know, if there is a thought out there, someone can turn it into reality in most cases.

Agriculture has to provide food to an unending amount of people. Any technology that can enable fewer people to do more, to raise more food, will certainly be incorporated.

There is no right or wrong answer to my question, all thoughts are interesting.

flying belgian · Jan 20, 2012

It depends on your definition of small. Fifty years ago small was 40 acres with a few hogs and cows. He worked in town full time and farmed the 40 or 60 after work and weekends. Today with the used equip. being 1586 IH and 4630 JD and 7720 and 9600 combines they weekender is running 500 acres. Fifty years from now the weekender will be running 1000 acres with the new machines of today. So I think there will always be small farmers, they will not look at all like the small farmer of today. The large farmer of tomorrow will be running 10,000 to 50,000 acres but I think most will be "family owned".

CenTex Farmall · Jan 20, 2012

Probably real big and real small. There are niche markets that can profitably work on a small scale. Current trend for conventional farming is larger and larger as you need the economy of scale to cover ever increasing input costs.

Of course if there's a spike in oil prices it all goes out the windows as fuel and fertilizer and transport costs will compound the final product cost.

Vito · Jan 20, 2012

There is,and always will be, a market for all size operations.If they are profitable is a whole different conversation.

Vito

jm. · Jan 20, 2012

I am glad someone shares my thinking. The parttimer with 80 acres is gone. It is parttimers with 1,000 + acres. Smalll equipment is just about a think of the past. Will be some mega farmers and some bIG part timers.

Mike (WA) · Jan 20, 2012

I don't think we'll ever see true "corporations" take over farming- because employees have a 9-5 mentality, with weekends off, and its very difficult to farm that way. Owner operator is wondering whether he can finish the field before it gets too "tough" to bale- corporate employee is thinking "if I slow up a little, I can get next to my pickup by 5, without having to make another round". Also, owner operator will take slim or no "wages", thinking next year will be better; You've got to pay the corporate employee, whether you make any money or not.

But the "big operators" will squeeze out more and more "little operators", because their economies of scale allow them bid up the rental price of land, especially when commodity prices are high and they are making the big bucks.

BANDITFARMER · Jan 20, 2012

I think it will depend on ware you live. Large farmers don't like small fields or hard to get to fields they like big fields so they can roll. Its hard to farm ground that rolls and uneven with big equipment that's ware the small guy can excel with this kind of ground with smaller equipment. I don't think the small farmer will ever be pushed out totally, But the Big guys are sure making it hard on the small guys. Bandit

Pair-a-dice farm · Jan 20, 2012

It's hard to predict what the next 50 years will bring. Technology is evolving at the speed of light. When I graduated HS in the early 70's a big row crop farmer was 700 acres and a big cattleman had 100 cows. Now I have 500 acres and 150 cows and still have to work part time to pay my insurance. A small row crop operation around here is 3000 acres and there are some that are 15000 acres. An average full time cattleman has 300 cows and I know of a couple that have over 1000. The only ones getting rich are the big row crop boys that was growing when the subsidies were still good. I've yet to meet a rich cowman.
I can't see equipment getting much bigger because of roads. I think the most changes will come in how much is produced per acre. Look at how that has changed in the last 20 years. I also believe that better genetics will be the biggest change in livestock. I grew broilers for several years and in that time it went from growing a 6# bird in 10 weeks to a 9# bird in 9 weeks. I can remember when a 400# calf at 7 months was normal now I wean at 600# and there are others that do a lot better than me. I probably won't be around in 20 years to see the changes but you younger folks may be in for a wild ride.

kruser · Jan 20, 2012

Will let billonthefarm and Wrigley chime in on this one!

Ray · Jan 20, 2012

Most of the small operators are already gone,some older guys with the farm paid for hang on hoping the son will follow in there footsteps,
but most realize small farms can't survive in the US without other income.

Anonymous-0 · Jan 20, 2012

How can you match the labor costs at $16ph[guestimate OZ and USA] against $2 a week.{free trade is the Political buzz word but disregard the level playing field.] The big conglomerates will see to the demise.
It's all about profits and satisfying BIG shareholders.The little Mums and Dads are outvoted therefore no meaningful say.

NY 986 · Jan 20, 2012

There will be a place for well capitalized operations whether the farm creates the capital required or it is sourced outside the farm. After that it is profit and or conservation of financial resources to sustain it. Which is to say there will not be a place for those that need to finance with commercial lenders to a substantial degree. I've seen guys who can put on a good show with fancy buildings, grain systems, new equipment but yet not turn a dime on operations because those farmers benefitted from unusual circumstances in terms money they had available from sources outside their farm. At least from what I have seen personally do not judge a book by its cover.

gtractorfan · Jan 20, 2012

How many 1000 to 2000 acre operators that retire do you see replaced by a start up operator? I know of several farmers that retired in the past year and their land's absorbed by those getting bigger.

fixerupper · Jan 20, 2012

In my neck of the woods a large hog company is buying up land so they can grow their own corn for feed. The hog company has the land custom farmed so they don't have to mess with the machinery headache and, even worse, hired help running it. This gives the independent farmer land to run his machinery on. The downfall to this, through my eyes, is there is no profit in custom farming. This hog company isn't buying up every acre by any means, and they only go so far when they bid on land, so they don't always get the high bid. But I can see this as being something that will be carried on into the future. The hog company also sends all of their fat hogs to a packing plant they have part ownership in so they will have control from the field to the supermarket.

Almost all of the investor owned land in this area will someday be for sale because the investors are usually in the advanced years and I don't see many family farms bidding on that land in the mid-to-far future. Jim

ridgelane · Jan 20, 2012

I came across this outfit.

http://www.oneearthfarms.net/

I wonder how many more of these operations will come online in the future? And more importantly, how will they fare? What does it mean for the consumer?

Tony S. · Jan 20, 2012

Modern farming exists largely because of cheap credit. Most "big" farms go years at a time without making any money. If credit gets tight or interest rates go up a lot, big farms will be the first to fail. A lot will depend on the health of the banking system.

fixerupper · Jan 20, 2012

(reply to post at 19:16:29 01/20/12)

ony, some of us remember the hard times during the eighties. More than once I've heard a farmer say he farmed XXX thousand acres until the eighties came. The he lost it all and moved to town. Jim

LAA · Jan 20, 2012

Coming soon, worldwide fuel crisis which will pretty well crash the major economies and then deflation, positive outcomes will include a return to small time farm operations.

Where is farming in the future, headed to?

Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Member

Member

Well-known Member

Well-known Member

Similar threads