Any one think grain prices will drop and not come back up?

Dave from MN · Jul 28, 2011

in the next 18 months? Corn around here is either very good, or very bad. Alot of it not even close to tasseling yet. I can not see the county average being over 100 bushels an acre if that. I have only sold about 20% of '11 corn expectations. Storage is limited and am considering putting up a 7-10,000 bu bin. What do you guys think? Stoage at local coops are $.03-$.05/bu/month-$.20 load out. Kinda thinking I will want to hold most grain for higher prices and get my average $/bu profit up for 2011 crop. I have enough sold to cover any operating debt open accounts.

rrlund · Jul 28, 2011

Depends on what you mean by "drop". A few good years and we could see $4.50 corn and $8 beans,but I can't see a real world scenerio that would take us back to $2 corn and $4 beans,no.

Bob Bancroft · Jul 28, 2011

1 No- we have a new normal.
2 On the importance of bin space- I had a new one up in time for wheat(bought it last Dec)
I can hold all my own harvest
I can't imagine between now and harvest you can get a bin and get it up.

Traditional Farmer · Jul 28, 2011

Thru history when prices of any commidity is high or low and all the 'experts' agree its 'different this time' the high drops and the low goes up.
As the old saying goes when hog prices are high its time to butcher the sow.

rrlund · Jul 28, 2011

How old are you? I remember when corn was under a dollar. Fertilizer was $40 a ton,seed corn was $8 a bag and fuel was 14 cents a gallon. Yes,I do believe there is a "new normal". It happens. It's inflation. Does it mean higher profits,no,it's just the way it is.

shortcourse · Jul 28, 2011

Here in most of Allen County Indiana less then 1/2 inch rain in July, a lot of short corn with no tassel yet. FT. Wayne

Anonymous-0 · Jul 28, 2011

Couple of points that I will add to the conversation.
1. 8 dollar a bu. corn will be just as bad for the economy as 120 a barrel crude.
2.If number one happens then the American consumer will hate farmers as much as the oil companies.
3. Expect BIG cuts to the new farmbill.
4. I wouldn't be buying any ocean front property just yet.

tomstractorsandtoys1 · Jul 28, 2011

Store your corn if you can. I am hearing lots of the corn is not as good as the "Experts" say. After harvest I think corn will go up again.Texas,Kanas and Misouri very dry.Southern IL,In and ohio wet early then mudded the crop in now some places dry or still wet. Mn and Wi very wet and crop behind.

Traditional Farmer · Jul 28, 2011

Yea its always 'different this time' Back in the Summer of 1973 I had a County Agent absolutely go off because I was hard culling my cattle.Cattle were at a all time and he said explained how cattle prices would be high for years,couldn't drop because of all the figures he was spewing out.By Nov.1973 a cow that would have brought $400
in the Summer you'd of been lucky to get $150 out of her.Commidity prices fall quicky but takes years to go back up.

gregk · Jul 28, 2011

I'm too young to know much of it, but dad tells of a fella talking one day in the late 70"s about crop prices. He was spouting off about how great the prices were andwe'll never see (I believe)) $3.00 corn again. He was close to right it took 20 years to get the prices back up that high. Point is anything can and will happen, but I don't have a prediction.

Jaden · Jul 28, 2011

Delivery on bins from GSI is pretty quick. Problem is getting an erector this fall.

JDseller · Jul 28, 2011

An old economist fellow once stated that he had never seen anything that farmers could not product to worthlessness yet. These high commodity prices will make bushels some where. It may not be in the US but it will make ground be switched to grain crops else where in the world.

As for this being the new "normal". When did farm ground bring $2000 per acre for the first time?????????? In the 1920s. That same ground took fifty years to get back to that level.

With the world wide speculation on commodity markets now the high and lows are going to come faster. The traders make money on the swings not stability. Supply and demand is not driving the high prices today.

Pair-a-dice farm · Jul 28, 2011

Speculators and the low value of the dollar is part of the problem. I heard that the world population will soon hit 7 billion. I guess this is the new normal but unless livestock prices make a big jump I won't be feeding corn, I'll just keep them longer on grass. I used to think I could guess what was the best or at least better way to go. Not anymore.

northvale · Jul 29, 2011

I have noticed a few things over the years: commodity prices can be manipulated by big insiders who know how to make money both going up & down. And, when you think you have figured it all out, someone changes the rules. Lastly, the public always seems to find out after the moves are done.

Any one think grain prices will drop and not come back up?

Dave from MN

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rrlund

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Bob Bancroft

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Traditional Farmer

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rrlund

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shortcourse

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Anonymous-0

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tomstractorsandtoys1

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Traditional Farmer

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gregk

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Jaden

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JDseller

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Pair-a-dice farm

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northvale

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