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Beef

J

jhwis

Member
Slightly off topic, but wanted rrlund among others to see it....what are you thinking beef prices are going to look like in the
fall? (Both fats and replacement)
 
I guess if I could predict prices, I'd be making millions in the commodity futures markets. Common sense says that with $5.50-6.00 corn, fats will have to be $140-150. Will it happen? Only if packers pay up with some of the massive profits they've been making for a year now. If they don't, feeders won't be worth anything. Who could pay anything for them if they're going to hemorrhage money on every one they feed?

With all the drought out west, feed could be a critical issue by fall. A lot of those cows could be having their last calf. If too many culls are headed to slaughter, it'll cut in to capacity to slaughter fats and drive prices even lower temporarily. Prices should be a lot higher than they are right now, but they're headed the wrong way. Feedlot asking price this morning was $115, but no takers. The top at the sale barn Monday was down. Top was $102.50. I'm in no hurry to send anything at that price. God help us if things don't go higher pretty soon and stay that way.
 
I agree. A big cattle jockey around here (your neighbor to the west) told me there aren't enough cattle around for next fall and he expects high fat prices as well. Of course corn prices dictates that. It would be nice to make some money one of these years.
 
Just guessing but restaurants are big beef buyers and in my area the places like Outback,Texas steak House etc are not doing near the business they did before the economy went down that has to affect prices.As far as really predicting price when I haul a load of calves off I really have no idea how much I'll get for them.Everything changes fast these days.Thankfully I have no debt and don't rely a lot on farm income for a living these days.
 
The thing that worries me is that the feedlots are gonna be nervous about paying too much for feeders in the fall if they know margins are gonna be tight with high grain prices.
 
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