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Corn Price Guess

A

Anonymous-0

Well-known Member
How do you guys feel about next years corn prices. Guy at church that farms full time was telling me he thinks they will go way down. Like 4 dollar range or lower. He may have just been yanking my chain a little or overly negative. He was serious to a point though. But what do you guys think right now. I know it can't drop much below the 5's or I'll be hurting.
 
With all the expense now a days I do not see how it can. I just heard Friday of a 400lb. calf bringing $2.02 This farming and cattle is so crazy any more it kind of gives me the willies!
 
A lot of the experts are pretty bearish right now. Most all said these high prices just couldn't last. Every year it's either too wet, or too dry, and every year we produce a record or near record crop. Just think if we get an ideal growing season. That and the blender credit for ethanol is ending, that will drive the final nail in the casket of an industry just clinging by it's fingernails anyway.
 
Sorry I hit the wrong button, I had another thought....I have been looking for another tractor, around 75 to 100 h.p. man if that is not a pity I will pay for lying! 30 and 40 year old tractors 10 to 15 K what is a small farmer going to do? As I see it we are going to do with out.......
 
Some of the marker analysts on Ag Day are saying it wouldn't take anything but a "normal" growing season to bring corn back below cost of production. They say that's not terrible low,but with production costs what they are right now,4.50-5 dollars would do it. Like I said in another post below,these folks who've never lived these rough cycles before and have been buying some of this high dollar land,might be getting some strong advice from their lender that they call an auctioneer.
 
I don"t know what corn will do next year but I do know it will be $3.00 - $4.00 sometime in the near future just like oil will be $20.00 a barrel again at some point, all commodities are subject to market forces, the old saying make hay while the sun shines applies. Land valuations of late have not been based on what is sustainable. If you need $5.00 corn to survive you need a new plan.
 
my local bids today are 5.62 Jan 2012 and 4.77 Oct/Nov 2012, so thats my guess. Hey if fertilizer falls with price and the subsidies kick back in, we can still produce.
 
I think lower, like was previously stated; the ethanol credit is ending, and that is a big one.

"They" are thinking that there will be a meat scarcity in 2012, because of lower herd numbers because of the high feed cost/horrible weather combinations that hit much of the (USA) country. And meat exports in all categories is high now, and projected high next year.

Load up on some feeder animals. Beef, pork, or feathered!

That's what "they" said. "They" may be wrong! :)

Ooops, $4.35 is my guess. Around June.
 
Lumpie, where do you get your info.

The blenders tax credit was started in 2004.

We have had ethanol since 1974 or so here. Sooo they, the ethanol companies, survived for 30 years without it.

The tax credit is 4.5 cents a gallon for e10 and 45 cents for e85.

Reports say that the oil companies are subsidized to the tune of $1.00 to as mach as $10.00 per gallon.

The efficent ethanol companies have made money all along with $6.00 plus corn.

They get 2.8 gallons per bushel and are selling it for about 2.75 a gallon right now. Thats about $8.00 back from the $6.00 investment. Then they are getting around 40 cents per bushel for the gluten they sell.

As corn goes lower there profits are going up.

Right now the local ethanol plants are paying 10 to 30 cents a bushel more for corn than the Chicago Board Of Trade price to get as much corn as they can. Would they be paying above CBOT price if they were loosing money?

Ethanol is here to stay. And hasd been for 38 years.

Gary
 
IaGary, US oil and Gas companies receive no direct subsidies from the taxpayers -- that number is zero. As a matter of fact, several tax credits that are available to every other industry in the US are denied the oil companies or are less than other industries get, such as the section 199 manufacturers tax deduction, 9% for every industry except the oil and gas industry which gets 6%. The ethanol industry and ethanol corn producers receive tax credits and deductions to the tune of 55 times the amount of tax deductions the oil and gas industry gets per unit measure of energy produced. Maybe it is a good thing for the corn belt states economies but the fact remains that if the playing field were level ethanol would fall flat.
 
I think it will make another run. Dont forget last fall..... corn made a run from around 3.75 to over 6.00... Supply and demand moves price but money moves markets. Right now the speculative money is out of ag and into oil and bonds, or hiding. Risk of Europe going crazy is putting pressure on all ag futures. Even the cattle futures markets are trending bearish yet the cash markets are still bullish.

If I was trapped needing 5.00 corn then I'd certainly not take the risk. Right now you can lock in price protection. Sure it will cost you the chance of selling 8.00 corn but that ship has sailed. Id bet even money that we are as likely to see 4.00 corn as 7.00 corn in the next 12 months. Lots of guys here got in and got in big. They are the ones who are really going to be hurting. I knew when corn hit 6.00 that the ship of getting into more corn had sailed so I makde a comitment to expand my hay production. If we see 2.50 corn and some of this rolling stock starts hitting the market I may start thinking about being a grain farmer again.....
 
Been farming all my life, but a person never really gets to be an expert in it, so very much to learn.

One thing I noticed kinda early on - farming takes a year or 3 to really change your direction, as we deal in long growing seasons, etc.

When nearly everyone is saying something, it's probably a good idea to be one of the first to be doing the opposite.

Think you are doing well there getting into more hay when _everyone_ is talking about wall to wall corn.

--->Paul
 
Haha thanks. See my name "40acreFarmer", I could have penny corn and survive. I just don't enjoy losing money on my hobby.
 
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