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Whats your outlook?

S

SVcummins

Well-known Member
For the coming year in farming ? Here looks like a drought
again high fuel prices and a poor calf crop drought will mean
another poor hay crop and skyrocketing prices on everything
except farm commodities and what they do go up if any the
increase will not even think of covering the higher price of
inputs .
 
Out look is optimistic for me. I have a lot of carry over hay, and we have really good moisture levels. So this crop year is starting out with promise . Yes crop prices are up, and inputs are up too, but I have my inputs booked in, and have 6 months of locked in fuel price booked also. Livestock prices are up significantly from a year ago. And I just got the highest price I have ever been paid for milk, $119.50/100 litres. So no yes costs are up, and inflation is running over 5%. But we have to look for opportunity where we can find them.
 
Nothing depresses me more than drought ,high fuel prices and dead calves . Ive got enough fuel for 6 months but then what ?
 
I agree with both those points. Loosing calves just sucks the life out of you. And as far fuel prices, you , me and everyone else will have to adjust the way we do things to meet the changes, and brother, I hate change. But this year i hired a sprayer to burn down a hay field, then hired a 30 foot no till drill to come in and plant my wheat. The wheat went in for less cost than I could have ploughed and worked the field down. Its crazy, but crop grows just the same.
 
I have a nice bunch of calves born back in Jan/Feb,good crop of goat kids,meat goats are selling real well,grass is starting to grow.On the down side it'll cost more in fuel to make hay for sure this year and everything is more expensive. I just turned 70 but am overall healthy and active just doing things a little slower than I used to.No drought here I'm in the mud.
 
I hear you. Losing a calf let alone multiple calves is depressing. Had three steer calves lay on their side this winter and bloat. I literally check on them twice a day. Usually happens overnight, but one happened while I was at work. Fighting the weather whether too dry or too wet also takes its toll. It's all part of the gig, but it takes any enjoyment out if it. I've invented quite a few new cuss words in my day.
 
Terrible drought. We have had very little snow this winter and have been in a drought for several years now. Probably have to decrease the numbers of cattle we run due to less and less forage. Dry land range cattle really depend on natural forage. Going to be really bad this summer.
 
We have been calving since February got about 130 to go . My own herd just started calving so fat thats a 100 percent loss . Hoping to get enough hay at home I wont have to travel again but with snow levels the way they are might not be anything worth going to cut anyway
 
Extremely high cost of doing business and I will believe in the high crop prices when I actually cash the checks. A lot can go wrong between now and fall when crops are harvested.
 


SV, with the cost of fuel, if you have to travel again to make hay due to the drought, you could look into hiring it cut with a disc mower and get 50% more yield for your travel expense.
 
No till isnt a bad option sometimes. I have really thought a lot about it Ive got a good sprayer and I do a lot of spraying . My hoe drill will go in hard ground easy enough. There are some things I cant change though
 
There is no one to do it with any kind of mower there . The
mower isnt so much the problem as the one section of field
which Is the highest producer Is rough from the cow trails and
cow tracks any kind of mower reality wont help . That section
is under water until about July on most years so it stays
pretty soft and then it gets rough . Still trying to find a decent
rake but it doesnt look good for that either so definitely wont
make any yield up on that end .
 
According to Google, 100 liters is equal to 97 kilograms, and 97 kilograms is 213 pounds.

Milk in the US is generally priced per hundred pounds. If my math is right you were paid almost 56 dollars per hundred pounds. Even with the exchange rate and the Canadian dollar being less than the American dollar, that's still a lot of money for milk. Congratulations!
 
What's your outlook?

I definitely need more beauty sleep.
I can't figure out how I got this old and ugly.

Farming is the greatest gamble..

I'm no expert. From what I've read, Ukraine is the bread basket and a large producer of wheat... What is the cost of planting wheat vs corn and beans.

Of course nothing grows without rain..

Many farmers around me have irrigation.
 
A neighbor who has cows as well as a lawn mowing business told me yesterday that he has lost ome long time customers, about a thousand dollars of monthly income, because they must reduce their expenses. The economy in general will experience less spending because people will spend less, and when they spend they will buy less expensive goods. A couple of local hay sellers do not think they will be able to pass higher costs to buyers, much less recover their costs.
 
I was always fat and ugly now Im just damn fat and ugly. We have irrigation but if there is no water then there is no irrigation
 
In the Midwest good yields and high prices have been a profit windfall. Farmers have money to burn and fewer things to spend it on. Iowa farmland prices jumped 29 percent in 2021, up nearly $3000 to a state average of almost $10,000 per acre. https://www.card.iastate.edu/farmland/

People complain about higher input costs, but no one is actually willing to cut back on any inputs here yet. Climate change seems to be helping the upper Midwest with better weather for growing row crops. New technologies, forward pricing and crop insurance have taken out much of the risk in crop farming for this area. Farmers are very optimistic here, but many still put on a good show as they cry all the way to the bank, LOL.
 
I know some people hate to hear this but when a tank of fuel costs 150 or 200 dollars you dont do to much unnecessary spending at least you dont unless you have a hell of a lot more money than I do and came by that money a lot easier than I do mine thats two days wages for me .if it isnt for you god bless but I find it hard to smile and sing Kumbaya during it all.
 
I'm trying to be optimistic but I also know what reality will do to you. We are starting out kinda on the dry side for this time of year. I haven't forgotten not that long ago the season where we had a total of 8 different rains the whole season from layby to harvest maturity that totaled 8 tenths of an inch of rain. The corn crop averaged anywhere from 44 to 75 BPA. Tobacco was burnt up and trashy. There definitely isn't any room for a single mishap this crop season. The imput prices have me nervous and the sad part is the what income potential is the same or less than if corn was $3, except you get the opportunity to go bust even faster as high as everything is.
 
Lots of farmers here look rich but they arent . They raise the same crops as everyone else does they are buying the same chemical fertilizer and fuel as everyone else is buying the same parts everyone else is . The only difference is they have a new tractor payment or 7 or 8 and a new truck in the driveway.
 
We have been dry for the last four years. Last year we did not get one drop of rain until August then it finally gave us about 8 inches so we are in better shape than it looks other than we was short 20 inches already. We had fair snow but nothing to brag about and it looks its going to warm up fast which is never good
 
I just heard that last night and thought of you. They said third year of drought in the West. Will be worse in CO. Hope you make out alright. Thats tough. No control over it. Good luck to you
 
I can understand. We are fine in Missouri. Rain coming. $17 beans and $7.50 corn. I hope Mother Nature sends some your way. It will rain all day today here. Hang in there. You are a survivor.
 
Colorado and Arizona and New Mexico is going to turn to dust and blow away at least the last few times I was there and I dont know thats its gotten any better I cant say for sure because its been several years since Ive been but I dont think it could have improved much
 
If we get crop yields similar to last year's, we will have one of the best years on record....yes, some inputs are up, but we can book beans for almost 20$ per bushel Corn for almost eight and old crop wheat is 12....I can see land rent going up 25 percent this year, and don't even think about buying land here....I won't be surprised if it nears 20k per acre....so, your position in the race determines your success this year...

Ben
 
It's been exceptionally dry here. If we see a continuance of that, I am not seeing a good year happening.
Commodity prices are good right now, but that could be, and likely will be a different story come harvest time. It almost never fails, that's what happens. Thought about contracting my wheat this year (haven't ever done that), but I'm opting not to because I don't think I'll have enough bushels to fill a contract.

Inflation and higher fuel prices will likely raise prices of stuff on grocery store shelves (already happening), but I don't think very many of THOSE extra dollars will trickle back to the farmer. Likely get caught up someplace in between. Always does.

Maybe I should be more optimistic. It did rain last night (much needed). But, I've lived long enough to know that this year starting out, doesn't smell good. Could be a recipe for disaster. And that's not good saying that only half way through the 3rd month of the year. Usually people don't say that on a bad year until about month 6 or 7.
 
Not much optimism here although the nearly normal snowfall at least gives us a start on spring moisture for the fields. Desperately dry going into last fall with a wel below normal crop yield. Crop prices are one bright spot with the highest ever seen in my lifetime. Unfortunately all our crop inputs have gone right up and beyond. With these prices to deal with farming has become a bigger gamble than ever.
Threat of a railway strike now could hold up supplies of those expensive crop inputs at the worst possible time. And fuel, I don't want to think about it.
 

I'm very worried about this year. Last time it was dry like last year the next was worse. And with inputs more than double I'm worried about making it pay. I think I'm going to cut back some of fertilizer hoping for some carryover from last year. I may also plant more oats and less corn. I'm also considering contracting enough corn to pay the bills. We do have plenty of moisture to start the year, so that's good.
 
I hear you. Here things are much more like the 1970s not the 1980s. Debts are paid off and there is plenty of cash to buy what little is available.
 
Are you feeding them Oats, Ask your vet about adding a little Sodium Bicarbonate [baking soda] that will make them fart, get rid of there gas! And its cheap
 
Lots of money was made here in 2021 on corn and soybeans...This year at the present time we are in fine shape for moisture...2022 may be a tougher year due to high input costs-etc.
 
I'm not farming but it's been dry in Northern Illinois, think we only had about ten inches of snow, but the organic neighbors got that covered, this well drilling rig showed up about five weeks ago. One of the owners told me that well was 800 ft. deep if I remember right, sounds like a lot. He said they drill a smaller well first and use that water to drill the big well.

These guys put in two irrigation pivots last year on another farm plus they already had one on each of two other farms.
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cvphoto120488.jpg
 
As farmers we have to be optimistic about the coming year. We do the best we can , world events are not something we can control and the rest is up to Mother Nature. Thinking you are going to have a bad year is a tough way to start a year. I have been dead wrong about predicting what will happen in the upcoming year and have learned to take a positive approach, your year will be better for that simple reason.
 
I'm in a somewhat different world. My family has been farming here in what I call 'central Siberia' (AKA east central Wisconsin) for over 120 years and I have never heard of a crop failure. Why? My farm is so varied in topography and soil types (thanks to the most recent glacier) that in a dry year, my low land does very well. In a wet year, my high land and sandy land does very well. In an average year it all does well. Overall, it never sets any records except on those parts that are most suitable for the type of year we have. Sure, I can brag about 250 bushel per acre corn, but that will only be on a portion of the whole. In a wet year my corn on the sandy and high ground will be 12 feet tall. In a dry year it might be 3 feet tall. I don't worry about it or even think about it very much.
 
The area in which I live has.rapidly become more urbanized over the last 20 years. There are dozens of lawn service companies as well as individuals that do that work. You would seldom see a teenager mowing a lawn. It will.be interesting to see if those that have separated themselves from outside work will stick to it when our summer heat and humidity arrive. I am with you in that my tractors ain't running unless they are working.
 
Bleak. We are terribly dry here and running out of feed fast. We dont have any moisture to plant in. Some ground has been too dry to even get ready to plant. Tony
 
Compared to most here we are a very small operation. Make around 1200-1500 small squares a year and 60-90 5x6 rounds. No corn no beans. Have plenty of moisture here. Water table is high enough my sump in the basement still runs quite often, like 3 or 4 times an hour. Last year was opposite for us than what you had. Good moisture in the spring. Hay was ready to make and it was dry. For only 2 weeks. Got some made and then it started raining every other day. Making dry hay was next to impossible. By the time we finished first cutting it was dry , brown, and not worth a shxxt. Very frustrating.
 
I'm more optimistic than I have been for a long time. Milk price is at record levels, grain prices are high, and there is plenty in the bin. Yes we will spend more in a lot of places, but will take in more as well. Prepaying/contracting will help ease a lot of pains.

Sold a load of wheat last week for $12.74 a bushel... that made me smile :). Corn checks at 7k a load don't hurt either. Even bull calves are doing better as of late.

Life is what you make of it!
 
currently looking over things and trying to figure out what to do with soil that was tilled last fall.. usually would make 2 or 3 trips across it with different equipment before it would be planted. The cost of fuel that is not an option.. Have some hay that should be cycled out, I think its going to stay where it is for awhile..
 
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