Unbelievable Grain Market

BillinCentralMO · Feb 9, 2021

Beans over $14 again and projected to go higher. Corn over
$5.50. USDA report this morning projected to further increase
price. Haven’t seen such volatility in a long time. The fall 2020
harvest is worth about 150% of what it was in November. It’s
really something else to watch it.

4520BW · Feb 9, 2021

I was about to sell some beans end of last month but they took a dive on the 21st. the elevator was paying $14.01 and down below 13 in a few days.

tomstractorsandtoys · Feb 9, 2021

I contracted some corn for $5.10 April delivery a few weeks ago. With the China corn inventory cut and other factors corn might even get a 7 number in front of it before harvest. My $5.10 still is not a bad price but..... Tom

BillinCentralMO · Feb 9, 2021

That’s a very good price still. All our corn tickets started in 3 or 4 the last eight years. I was about to pull the trigger and it went up some more. Probably watch it a little longer and sell all the rest of the beans for April delivery. Might sell some of the corn this week and hold the rest. I have yet to take advantage of the upturn. Some world crisis occurs I guess it could be gone just like that.

BillinCentralMO · Feb 9, 2021

It’s over $14 here again. Watch closely. I sure will. Good luck.

4520BW · Feb 9, 2021

paying 13.87 for beans and 5.56 for corn locally.

4520BW · Feb 9, 2021

I sold a lot of beans in the 10 range and was happy. looking back if I would of binned more or DP I cold make a few extra bucks.

NC Wayne · Feb 9, 2021

The problem is that while the prices being paid for the beans may be up, your now paying more for fuel and everything else......

By summer time I imagine all those costs will go even higher as our energy independence is pretty much gone, and fuel prices drive up the cost on everything.....so you'll probably need to see far more of an increase in selling price to even make up the difference.

Bill(Wis) · Feb 9, 2021

China's swine herd is projected to be fully recovered in number by the end of the first half of 2021 which means they will be needing a lot of corn between now and their 2021 corn harvest. I also think the crop financial guessers didn't fully appreciate the amount of damage done in Iowa although I can't figure out why. It was in the news every day. It wasn't a secret. When 43% of Iowa's corn and soybean crop is wiped out (10 million acres) why wouldn't that affect the market? I suspect some short selling on their part had something to do with it.

fixerupper · Feb 9, 2021

I sold all of my grain at harvest and took my knocks. Part of a plan for winding down in farming in a couple years. I still made a profit at what I sold it for so I came out OK. I fully expect prices to stay up through harvest. If we have a widespread drought this coming summer who knows where the prices will go.

moresmoke · Feb 9, 2021

Back when fuel was $4.00/gal the farmers around here couldn’t figure out what to do with all their money.

rustred · Feb 9, 2021

canola here is 16.10 / bu. barley 6.00/bu. alberta.

coonie minnie · Feb 9, 2021

Agreed. Fuel is a small part of the equasion.

rusty6 · Feb 9, 2021

Same here for canola in Canada. $12 canola was looking amazing back in December and I sold some. Now I'm hearing of $15 although it has dropped a bit the past week. I'm about half sold out and wondering if I waited too long or to wait longer.

paul · Feb 9, 2021

Sold beans off the field, price was good then doesn’t pay to look back or second guess.

Got a lot of corn left to play with.

Basis changes a lot, some of us still have a lot of negative basis, if they do start sweeping out the corners of the high basis areas, then ours might change some.

The report didn’t increase corn exports as much as hoped for, so corn is down a bit, beans went up some.

Will be interesting to see how markets go in end of March or so, when we try to decide if we plant a bit more corn or a bit more beans. With both of them possibly in tight supply, it could get interesting.

Brazil and Argentina harvest should be kicking in real soon and steady the market, USA will be old news while SA will be the hot topic for a couple months time.

China must have had a really bad crop from all their flooding last summer, as well as thry must have had a really short reserve and used it up during the trade war. Such big news to see them buying corn at all, and then seeing them aggressive about it.

Paul

SVcummins · Feb 9, 2021

2014 and 2015 were the highest price ive ever sold calves for but it was also the highest fuel beside 2005 when it hit 4.24$ for farm fuel . Just a different range of numbers but were still getting screwed

4520BW · Feb 9, 2021

All we do is just shuffle more money around, the profit is the same.

coonie minnie · Feb 9, 2021

Ask yourself this... what year did you make the most money? I'm guessing you might find fuel price vs profit isn't a strong correlation. In my case diesel fuel is about 1.5% of my gross operating receipts. If it doubled tomorrow, it would still only be 3%. There are a lot of other things to worry about that have a bigger effect that the cost of diesel.

Traditional Farmer · Feb 9, 2021

Late 1970's fuel went high,bottom dropped out of farm products.High fuel prices drive the price of other things up not just gas and diesel hurts the economy overall.

ss55 · Feb 10, 2021

The 1980 Russian grain embargo may have affected farm commodity prices much more than the price of oil affected farm prices.

BillinCentralMO · Feb 10, 2021

I think that rally is over. Maybe it comes back again - but the prices sure dived after the USDA report.

Cmore · Feb 10, 2021

Let’s end the ethanol subsidy then, since prices are so high!!

Unbelievable Grain Market

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