Tariff War Question ...

Crazy Horse

Well-known Member
Reading this AM in the local paper about the ongoing tariff war going on with the US and China. One puts a tariff on imports for so many billions of dollars, then the other guy responds with an equal amount of tariff and things continue back and forth. Does anybody ever win in these ongoing battles? Meanwhile, there must be producers and manufacturers on both sides in certain segments of the economy that are really suffering. I'm sure a lot of North American farmers must be feeling the pinch already. Any comments on what's happening and what the eventual outcome will be?
 
I believe all of this tariff stuff is just away to raise the price of all goods in the market place. If and when the tariffs that have been put on, are relaxed or taken off, do you think the prices of goods will return to pre tariff prices ?
 
On the bigger picture is we now have a President who has knowledge in business. Unlike the politicians of the past who were looking for feel good relations. Currently Canada has a 300% tariff currently on American dairy imports. This is just an attempt to level the playing field and get some of that Chinese junk out of this country. If it cost more to import it and people won't buy it because it is junk, the producers will increase quality to meet demand. Now if the other country will not import our better quality items at a decent price, then their standard of living will suffer. They keep their own cheap junk.
How's that for an answer?
 
I think the tarrifs are to help level the playing field. to encourage more manufacturing,business to stay in America,rather to be 'farmed out' over seas.Sometimes healing can cause pain.In the end,I think America will be stronger.
 
In this case, I think that the new tariffs are being used to protect what is left of our own domestic industries. Tariffs are generally used to protect one country's domestic industries. As such, putting a tariff on imported goods should cause the price of the imported goods to exceed the price of the domestic goods. In theory, this should cause the domestic industries to recapture some of their lost market share.
We, the USA, have been subjected to too many one sided trade agreements that always seem to favor the other countries involved. So, maybe it is about time to turn some of that around to at least level the playing field. Bearing in mind that other countries do not have such strict regulations on pollution and workplace safety. Those things do cost, and tend to raise the cost of finished goods.
 
I don't think the dairy tariff is quite as simple as that Bruce, it was discussed here earlier and there is a lot more to the story than such a simple statement like the one you made, in other words ..... "the rest of the story". And yes I know, there are all sorts of charts and tables on the internet which back those numbers up (and countless computer programs to do that for whoever wants to bother). I guess things will get back to normal once North American workers are willing and eager to work for $3.00 per hour but until then, the demand for cheaper goods will stay as it is.
 
(quoted from post at 07:45:37 09/19/18) Reading this AM in the local paper about the ongoing tariff war going on with the US and China. One puts a tariff on imports for so many billions of dollars, then the other guy responds with an equal amount of tariff and things continue back and forth. Does anybody ever win in these ongoing battles? Meanwhile, there must be producers and manufacturers on both sides in certain segments of the economy that are really suffering. I'm sure a lot of North American farmers must be feeling the pinch already. Any comments on what's happening and what the eventual outcome will be?

OK, I'll take a stab at this.

1: "the other guy responds with an[b:7da382726a] equal amount[/b:7da382726a] of tariff and things continue back and forth." That's how it should work. What has happened is that one country will say, like they US charge 5% and the other other country will charge 25% on US goods creating a trade imbalance.

2: Sure a country can win this when they buy enough of another country's GDP that an embargo can create an economic problem for the selling country.

This current problem has been ongoing for years. Politicians from all sides are afraid to address situations like this. This fear proves that any politician regardless of affiliation won't force an issue even thought they may have made promises and or sworn and oath. They don't make waves because reelection is more important than doing their job. Folks have been yelling about about trade imbalances for decades. They yelled real loud when the Carter/Reagan recession started. A good example was Japan in that time frame. They were not only subsidizing manufactured goods so that they could sell stuff to us, they were charging on some thing 3 or 4 times for tariffs for similar US made goods. Especially cars. Politicians on both side were screaming about that situation. None of them were willing to do anything to fix it.

So what's happening is that a guy got elected who isn't a career politician. One who isn't afraid to tackle this problem. Now the same countries that have been causing this trade imbalance have to deal with the president trying to fix this problem. Short term some people are going to feel the effects. So without being emotional someone has to pay that price. Do we do this where 10, 20 maybe even 30% of the population is directly effected? Or do we do this where maybe 2% (farmers) are the ones most effected? We are not using our assets to feed ourselves with about 41% of the corn and over 50% of beans going into our gas tanks. So (I know I'm being harsh) we can loose 40% of our farmers and still feed just as many people. That 40% is less than 1% of the total US population. Simply put? GMO's and Roundup are killing farmer. No, not with cancer. But by increasing production enough that if "renewable" fuel production was to stop we can just do away with 40% of the farmers.

Rick
 
"On the bigger picture is we now have a President who has knowledge in business."

Bingo, Bruce, and it's about time.

The escalating tariffs are meant to level the international playing field, something that has needed done for decades.

I expect that it will succeed but it is necessary to break eggs to make an omelet.

Dean
 
Does anyone want to buy a $3000.00 American Made TV? Or do they want to buy the Wal-Mart option?

If they bring all this manufacturing back to America; do the American people want to work? In all of the factories I visit for service work most of them have a hard time finding some that is willing to work and be part of a team.

If they bring all this manufacturing back to America, the cost of these good will increase. Will you or I get an increase in pay to buy these goods? Or will the average middle class American fall further into the poverty lines?

Point is, we need options.

Whether it is China, another county in Southeast Asia or West Africa, there will always be cheap labor with low manufacturing cost and every little EPA on there ends.

With all of these tariffs, what has it done for the disgusting milk prices? And what about the other agriculture products? What have the tariffs done for them?

There was record high prices for dairy and grain under the last administration. Prior to that there was record lows for grain and dairy prices under the guy in the early 2000's. Are we repeating history at the pocket book of the American Farmers?

These are some go the questions I have and would like to hear answers too.
 
It depends some on your politics....... and that is a tough thing to bring up in a forum. :)

As the others calmly say, I think the goal is to straighten out some inequities in world trade.

The USA got pretty wealthy, and decided as a group we should care about the environment, and workers health and safely, and all such things many years ago, instead of just profits. Which is good.....

But we also are human as individuals, and we want to spend as little as possible.

So To feel good, we passed all sorts of laws to protect workers, air quality, water quality, wages.

And then we drove to the store and bought the cheapest product we could find on the shelf, which was imported from Taiwan, Mexico, India, Korea, and now China. All made by countries that didn?t or don?t protect the air, water, their worker safety, or pay a living wage.

And so we Americans sit here feeling good and smug about all the good we do, and end up simply exporting all the bad to other parts of the world. Which is still hurting individual people.

Those other countries are stealing wealth away from us along the way. Sure their water and air is poorer and they have a lot of poverty and maimed workers. But their economies are growing because of it. The scales are tipping away from our country, and towards those countries.

I truly beive this is a last ditch big picture effort to try to reverse some of that. If it isn?t, we really don?t have any other options on the table to do so, and so things will continue to devolve if this effort doesn?t work?

I stand on the sidelines and am somewhat bemused by which political leanings support which efforts here. The mean ugly conservatives appear to support workers and the environment in this, they must not realize this? The liberals appear to be supporting the status quo of slave labor around the globe, rotten working conditions, and fouled environment by wanting things to remain imbalanced as they are.

We are living the book ?1984? right now.

Doublespeak.

I am just amazed at what is being said out there but people on both sides that have no clue what they are actually supporting. :)

I enjoy this thread and calm discussion and I realize many people have many different opinions, it would be nice if postive things could be said and not the arrows and rocks thrown around as so often happens.

As to the tariffs, the USA is much better able to handle the tariff situation than China is. China needs to import food to feed its people. The USA needs to import coffee makers and 4K TV sets to stock the big box stores.

Who do you think has the most to lose on this? Some parts of the USA economy will take a hit. China has some -real- issues to deal with.

I hope they figure it out and get themselves sitting at a table soon. It has to happen, might as well happen sooner than later. This saving face crap gets old, roll up the sleeves and get to work. Things have changed, work out a new plan.

Certainly there will be long repercussions. One of the long term goals it to have more manufacturing here, which means cost of everything has to go up, because e have to work under osha, epa, etc. that is some of the point, and that has to make stuff in the store cost more....

So even if this all is wildly successsful in the end, it means some big changes for us all, especially short term over a few years until things would get stabilized and the new way would be up and running - more stuff made here, a little less imported, a little higher waged jobs here, a little higher cost of living.

This is not an easy thing.

It would be a good thing, if it works. If we have the stomach to see it through.

I think.

We are used to ?easy.? Some things aren?t always easy.....

Paul
 
Too soon to say. To say that it won't have any positive effects right now would be as premature as those who jumped the gun on these trade issues over the past months and said it was all over,the other side had caved and we won. Only time will tell. Either way,in the end,somebody will be saying I told you so,but I hope I live long enough to see any good coming of this. It won't be over with in a matter of weeks or months. I'm sure glad beef hasn't been effected by it the way hogs and beans have,I'll tell you that much for sure.
 

Paul has it pretty well right. A few other points. Since we buy so much more from China than they buy from us, it would be very hard for them to win this trade war. The major losers in this will be small businesses who are unlucky enough to have a raw material or major supply, that is a big part of their operating cost, be a tariffed item. There will be many driven out of business. There will be factories shut down because sales of their products stop because of increases. Manufacturers will need workers in order to produce products here, and with the low unemployment and closed borders they will have to increase wages dramatically in order to attract and retain the workers that they need. Over-all we will have more manufacturing but cost of products will increase a lot. Besides the trade imbalance China has also been unfair in monetary exchanges, industrial espionage, and the requirements that they place on US businesses operating over there.
 
Well the way things have been for many years now is not worth a darn ! Time to try another method. The Chinese are tough and plan long term, and are betting the weak in this county will "blink" before they have to.
 
It is nice to read a post from someone that has actually thought through both sides of the situation. I agree with you on many of your points. The problem is that I do not see that we have thought through what it is that we want to gain from this trade war. If our goal is to go backward to an old assembly line economy, I fear that when we get there, we will find it is an empty bag. What will America need 20 years from now to have a "fair" playing field in the world economy?

The last group (30 years or so ago) that put together our current trade agreements said we (America) are going to be the information leader in the world economy. Somehow they forgot to add the rules to protect and get paid for our information (intellectual property) and it included no plan to deal with the existing 20% of the American workforce that is functionally illiterate and would lose their jobs when the factories moved overseas. What jobs can they do in our new economy? The biggest problem in the economy today is a lack of skilled or trainable employees.

I think America has been hurt for years by bad trade policies, but I don't see that this confrontation is based on a vision that will gain a strategic advantage in the future. Bring back the steel mills???? Really???
 
Are you sure beans are affected by the tarriffs? Or is that just a convenient scape goat and the real reason for lower prices is record production for the last several years? It's easy and convenient to blame gvernmwnt policies, but if it wasn't for that where would the prices be? This spring, before the tarriffs there was talk of low bean prices due to high production, then with spring rains a lot more beans went in which didn't help matters much.
 
To zero in on the ag sector. Do you think these tariff wars have an economic effect on farmers producing grain? Soys were 10.38 over Memorial Day , today they are 8.26 /bu. West of Mississippi R price is much lower due to distance to terminals. Would guess there are 500,000 farmers in US producing grain that price has a direct effect on their pocketbook. Farmers are a tough lot they can take tough times , for a while. But for how long do they take it on the chin. Also 40 % US corn produced is roughly used for e-fuel production, does not account for the DDGs produced in that process that are fed to livestock. So the DDG's are fed to animals to make millions of hamburgers,steaks, KFC chicken, Taco B's. We used to export 25% of US DDGs and 30% of US soys , not anymore. I saw his post as an economic issue not a political question.
 
As the news reports (what news sites???????? the ones that you have to dig to find) , China needs us, we don't need them and it explains why. Since our elected president is a business man and knows the ropes, and is working on a campaign of MAGA, he has a plan and we need to support him so he can execute it. We've been everybody's whipping boy (as the saying goes) for way too long. Time to level the playing field. I really expect things to swing in our favor (farmers) as soon as the other side feels the pinch and decides to start to be fair and negotiate on a level playing field.

My 2c and worth every penny you paid for it. Grin.
 
Not all business is the same. Running a hotel does not take the forward planning, tooling, design, factory facilities, and nationwide marketing that is involved in most of our major industries. If running a hotel was so complex, most would not be operated by minimum wage employees.

Selling luxury condos to foreign nationals moving their assets around the world for security reasons is smart business, but not as complex as the long term investments and planning involved in running Apple, or a drug company, or Boeing, or an auto manufacturer.
 
The real point of the so called trade war with China is to get them to quit stealing US technology and violating patent laws, we let the Japanese get away with it for 60 years and we cannot afford to continue losing our competitive advantage to proprietary theft. As far as agriculture is concerned, cut all government payments and the mega farms will by and large fall flat, family farms and small operators who can control their expenses would once again flourish and enjoy a much expanded market, let the consumers pay a little more for their groceries. The three hundred acre operators and the guys milking 75 cows are not over producing, it's the corporate farms who can't survive the next 30 days without the cash flow.
 
Up till Bill C opened the door for full trade with China we had little problems with China. Shoot back when I was in school years ago we where taught that a nation has to have more going out hen coming in or the nation will suffer and the U.S. has be suffering because we have been importing more then we have been exporting and that slowly take away for the U.S.A.
 
Russ, that was going to be one of my comments but you got it first. He's not a businessman, he's a con artist. Look into his past, it's all there.

I am in the machined parts business, the day they announced tariffs, my material cost went up 25%. How is that a good thing? Think we don't need China, try and find a pair of shoes made here, a shirt, pair of pants. The corporate controlled government passed laws years ago to encourage investment overseas. 20-30% profit wasn't enough, they want 50-60%.
 
41% of the corn, and 50% of the beans go into our gas tanks????? Ethanol"s byproduct is distillers grains, which is fed to livestock. The corn is not wasted or thrown away. Beans? Where do you get that figure? Some beans produce biodiesel, no where close to 50%, but again the byproduct is not thrown away. If we export almost 50% of bean production, use 50% for bio, where do we get all the SBM for livestock?
 
You also make very good points.

If industry does come back, it will be very mechanized and computer run. Laborers on the floor will be a smaller part of any newer factory.

And so the gains, if any, will be small.

Back when Hebert Ford came up with the assembly line concept and implemented it, he could afford to pay a lot of people a very high wage and spit out very many widgets. The people he hired had a huge increase in living, and went on to buy his widgets, and other stuff and the whole country could soon afford to buy the widgets that were made on his assembly line.

Everyone else was making a few items, one at a time with many cheap laborers, and the end widget cost a lot. Very few people could afford to buy any.

Henry Ford hit upon a new way that covered both sides of his business - he found a way to make a whole lot of relatively cheaper products by hiring a whole lot of people and paying them well. That beat the socks off the competition of the day. The whole country prospered with him.

The computer, robotics, and high tech deal,we have now is different. It doesn?t offer he same wonderful deals to all sides.

It is troubling, and until the next wave comes along, we don?t see a real fix. Maybe there is none.

Yes, I have more questions than answers on the current trade war path we are on. I like that we are doing something: I hope it will be a postive deal when it?s all said and done, and 8 hope it is shorter than longer as it goes. I think China needs us more than we need them; but along the way I?m square in the crosshairs of who gets hurt in the short term by it, as are many others.


I?m really, really, really disappointed by Congress as a whole. I no longer like either party there. They are supposed to run the country for the better good,, the President of the day is (or should be) more or less a figurehead the way this country was set up.

Congress has failed us for many years now. It is so disappointing. Even if we send a few good people there, they become ingrained in DC to the political way, and forget they are there to better this country. I don?t think term limits really matter, I don?t know what does any more. Congress is a failure.

Paul
 
Herbert Ford? Oh my. I wish I could spell better, so my spell checker wouldn?t have to work so hard to guess what I?m typing. Of course maybe I should toss the iPad and go with a real computer with a real keyboard for my fat fingers too.

Tho, it all would be made in China........ sigh.

I wish it would stop raining so I could farm. We had a 1/2 week to plant, week and a half to harvest small grains, a very hot and humid week last week to bale most of our very over ripe hay, and now it rains again as harvest is supposed to start. Currently in the 12th or 15th flood watch we have had here in northern corn belt this summer, I?m so sick of rain.

Paul
 
My guess Randy is the bean prices are in the tank due to the huge amount of beans planted and the record crop that it appears there will be. Add that to the last few years of record crops of beans, and you have low prices. Farmers here in the Midwest, me included, have planted beans, double cropped planting beans, and people around here in KS have left wheat acres out to go to beans, as wheat has been in the tank for the last couple of years. It does not take a Brain Surgeon to realize there will eventually be more beans than there is a market for them all.

So in other words, maybe the Farmer is his own worst enemy. I've said this before, but the old saying is true: "You Can Not Produce Your Way Out Of Low Prices"

Hogs, on the other hand, have always been feast or famine, due to quantity on hand. My FIL owned a 4000 sow, farrow to finish hog operation from the 50's to the early 2000's. He saw it many times. The prices would go up, farmers would borrow money and get into hogs, and the price would crash, the farmers would go broke, or have to sell off assets, and then the cycle would start over again.

I do not make my whole living off of farming, but I know for a fact that there may need to be sacrifices made. It is in no way as easy as "He said She said" Bob
 
I don't agree with this. Know where to put a hotel or what ever, what kind to build such as motel 6 or Hyatt, and getting to oljs to pay for yours rather than the one across the street would be pretty tough in my book. Many have tried and failed.
 
You don't get to be a Billionaire by not taking chances. Sitting in the corner and hiding your head into your hands will not usually solve anything either. Bob
 
I agree about congress. I blame Gerrymandering for much of it. Too many that only have to please a guaranteed supportive 52% of their voters to get reelected over and over and over, so why compromise? Term limits promote government by people that haven't learned how to find the bathroom yet. If term limits are so great lets term limit doctors and lawyers and teachers and farmers. Expertise in a field, like foreign relations or defense is important in the congress.

Yes, our leader is a business man but lots of business men have been unable to have the vision for the future and just want to repeat and repeat their past successes....Sears, IBM, Kodak, Xerox, the list goes on and on. Hope for vision.
 
Who tried and failed? You run the roads. Which new hotel chain has failed, and is shuttered and vacant?

Hotel business...try this one

Marriott International, Inc. is a leading global lodging company with more than 6,700 properties across 130 countries and territories, reporting revenues of more than $22 billion in fiscal year 2017. Founded by J. Willard and Alice Marriott and guided by family leadership for more than 90 years, the company is headquartered outside of Washington, D.C. in Bethesda, Maryland.

The Prez owns or operates 11 hotels.

My point is just that running a car dealership, is not as complex as running Ford Motor company or Toyota.
 
Yes, really.

There is no fundamental reason why steel mills cannot return to the US.

There is blame enough to go around, but fundamentally, it can be boiled down to this: In order to buy votes, we pay far too many people to not work and become parasites.

Term limits would drastically reduce the monetary value of a vote, greatly mitigating this problem.

Dean
 
About 10% of usa corn is converted from the starch content to ethanol and goes into our fuel tanks.

Biodiesel from soybeans is such a tiny market it?s hard to even find numbers on it, they talk about lbs of product not bushels because it?s so small a market. Minnesota is about the only state that is pushing biodiesel some I think? It?s still a small market, to sop up the extra oil crated when making soybean meal for feed.

Since soybeans are always milled down into components very little is used by anyone as whole beans. the oil content of a soybean is about 19%. If we converted every single soybean in the USA into biodiesel, we couldn?t use more than 19% of our soybean crop for fuel. It?s physically impossible.

As always, a fella named oiltanker is using the Big Oil misinformation to prop up oil company profits. Surprising eh.

Until then, he had some interesting thoughts on the tariffs, worthy of thought anyhow. He mentioned boycotts tho, that was from Nixon and Carter. Those were bad deals, set up very different then a boycott. I guess we have to go awhile to see if the net result comes out different. The boycotts were set in place fast for a single goal, to humble the other country by slamming the door on food/feed sales. These tariffs were set in place with a little more time, and as an incentive to come to a table and talk things over, they did t end any sales but made them cost more. I hope that is a difference that matters.

Paul
 
Take a drive around the country some day, you won't have to drive far to see a closed motel/hotel. They are all over and from many chains as well as Mom and Pop types. I don't doubt your info on the Marriott's, but how many did they put up then close?
 
I think the tariffs have put a big cloud over ag markets and there ?is never going to ever be any supportive news ever again? on corn, wheat, beans, meat.....

And so the tariff/China issue has set up a bleak market with no investors or big money funds coming around to play the commodities game and create some upward pricing. The past decade or so much of our grain prices have been driven by speculators, which take huge sums of money (our retirement funds) and stick that money in investments that look good, such as grain futures. Back when interest was .03% it was pretty easy to stick a few billion onto corn and soybeans, and hope it would make a few million return. Now with interest at 1% and we know ?we won?t ever sell anothe bean or corn bushel ever again,? it?s easy for that money to be stuck someplace else to invest.

But in general, most of the price action is exactly as you say, a big global crop, no one in the world is,looking like they will be short on grains, there is no reason to bid any kind of a price for any crop. Way plenty to go around. USDA has us about to harvest one of the biggest crops ever.

The price naturally would spiral down in the marketplace.

I sold enough corn with a $1 as the first number, and beans with a $4 as the first number, to not be too alarmed with normal market fluctuations.

What bothers me more is my fields are getting drowned for the 10th time or so this summer, I?m sick of the poor summer and poor crops......
 
The days of Henry Ford assembly lines are done. Its all lean manufacturing and only build what you need. Yes in the short term (3-6 months) it cost more on certain machines and setups, but in the long term (1-2 years) it saves the business a lot more than it lost on the short term side.

The comment that if the manufacturing industries come back that the laborers on the floor will be a smaller part. I disagree with this as I have seen this system more times than I can count.

Example:
Yes there will be less welders as there will be more automated production lines (robots). These welders usually turn into to set up operators as they still need people to set up and run these machines. They will need programmers to program the automated lines. And they will need different types of maintenance professionals to maintain these new machines.

There will be about the same amount of jobs, just in different areas than they were 50 years ago. 50 years ago you never heard of an IT department, now everyone has one. There were no software programmers and now its a must. Times change and so doesn't the job description, the work will be there if the people choose to work and educate themselves.

50 years ago you did not have robot milkers and now there are a lot of them out there. There are also high tech service guys out there to repair them instead of milking a cow.

Yes we will always need welders, fitters, electricians, plumbers, etc., but there are many new jobs that were no where's 50 years ago that we have now.

Automated lines (robots) don't take lunches or breaks, don't take a 20 minute poop right before lunch, they don't stop and BS with their buddy's, and by all means they are not commenting on internet forms like I am right now.
 
I've driven 2000 miles in the last 3 months. I've seen dozens of 40 year old hotels closed. But not many new ones closed, in fact none that I recall.
 
It's basis that's the real issue. I don't live there,but according to Ag Day,there are some elevators who had been sending beans to Pacific Coast destinations that were bound for China,who are telling farmers that they aren't even buying beans because they have no place to go with them. Even if there's a shift in buyers,if those beans have to go down the Mississippi to the gulf to be shipped,those barges are already booked and the ports will be full of beans that were already set to be shipped from there.

So CBOT price? Who knows. Local price,or even having a local market for some can be tied directly to the tariffs.
 
Stuff coming from China is priced artificially low in order to put the manufacturing here out of business, so we put a tariff on it to increase the price to a fair point and jobs are created here.

Stuff going to China is already expensive there, they put a tariff on it and their price goes up even more. But no jobs are created; they can already manufacture cheaper but they can't grow more food.

There's no way China can win that situation.
 
Most websites and economists say something around 35-39% US corn production is going to ethanol plants. It is a declining percentage due to gubbermint waivers recently granted to oil companies not to blend it, still more than 10%. An important part of the corn market.
 
Crazy Horse.
Back in the 70's our auto industry was under attack from Japan and Germany. Imported cars were kicking butts. Boat loads of cars were coming in daily.

The US put a tariff on imported cars. Guess what? It worked. Now all those cars are MADE IN AMERICA. America jobs.

So I've seen what tariffs can do. IMHO it's not all gloom and doom as the news media wants us to think.

Good chance US cars made in other countries may return. Many tools made in China may return too.

Let things shake out before we declare the sky falling
 
To be honest, I don't even know for certain where they would ship from on the Pacific side. I know Long Beach used to ship grains, but in the early 2000's it was almost a thing of the past. Possibly small ports in Washington or Oregon, I don't know, but there is very little grain shipped from the Pacific Coast.

Most grains leave from Houston or Corpus, so again, you never know what to believe.

I do know that the Stock Market is up due to "Tarriff's Seen As Less Damaging Than First Expected".

I also know the Company I work for now has a very large Contract with a Company in Mexico. Equipment from little ole Kansas, as well as other points, will be shipping to Monterrey, Mexico. Maybe it's a start, I don't know.

My main point is, and anyone who believes different I have a couple of bridges for sale, is that we know very little of how the Gov works in this trade situation. My belief is that at least this time, the Gov is trying to bring us back into the export business as a whole. Again, I have multiple farms income, but I am willing to gamble to see what can happen. I personally don't like owing the rest of the world. We are too great of a nation. Bob
 
Here's a link to Ag Day. If it wasn't todays show,try yesterdays. Jon can get it there for himself too instead of trying to stone the messenger. Just click on it and watch the show. The news stories are the first thing they have,so you won't have to wait long.
Ag Day
 
Oh we could have steel mills again and the people could work for a competitive wage versus the world market wage,
or the government could put tariffs on the competition to support the USA wages and in doing so pick winners and losers. Very very complicated. I think we need some level of steel for national defense but don't know what that is.

I personally place a much higher value on experience than you do. Having sat on many charitable organization boards and watched the new board members contribute nothing for the first couple years and vote yes to every silly proposal made by the hired managers , I think congressional term limits would turn the government over to the un-elected bureaucrats, even more so than it already is today.

Changing congress more often would focus more power in the hands of the lifetime bureaucrats, and they already have too much.
 
I?ve read several statistics on line that 20% of USA corn production goes to ethanol plants for processing.

Nearly 1/2 of that corn is returned to the feed market as ddgs. A little bit becomes corn oil and a very little bit other products.

About half becomes ethanol.

So, about 10% of corn gets used for fuel in our tanks?

Of course, if I read it on line it has to be true..... I could be misinformed as well. But I tried real hard to vet my info.

Paul
 
hay hay sez, Term limits promote government by people that haven't learned how to find the bathroom yet. Expertise in a field, like foreign relations or defense is important in the congress.

Sorry, bad argument, since congress has abdicated its duties and handed those duties off to a bunch of un-firable bureaucrats and the courts. ALL congressman's time, energy goes towards getting re-elected to their life long, cushy, hobnobbing, do nothing positions! The only experience that they have needs to be gone!
 
Stone the messenger? All I asked was if it was possible that the falling prices was due to bumper crops. You can't answer that question, so therefore I must be a nut or just being mean to you. Don't read AG day, so I have no idea whether they can be trusted as to their opinion, but based on most media I'll take it with a grain of salt til some proof is offered. So far I see no evidence that says it is from one or the other. And since the tariffs will do so much good for the rest of the country I'm at least willing to wait it out.
 
I beg your pardon. Nowhere have I said that I do not value experience. Indeed, quite the contrary.

That said, the type of "experience" gained by elected officials is of little, no, or counterproductive value. It's called Potomac Fever.

Career politicians are concerned with little beyond reelection.

Moreover, the government is run by unelected bureaucrats now. It's called the swamp.

BTDT.

Dean
 
Look we are not going to bring back all manufacturing jobs. Just ain't gonna happen.

What is being attempted is to bring tariffs inline so that our good that we export, and contrary to what some would have you think we export a lot, have a better chance of selling in say China. When we charge them 5% and they charge us 50% that stifles the sales of us manufactured goods. Gaining a better standing in the markets should eventually help us out.

Like him or hate him? I'm in the middle. But giving credit where credit is due he at least had the moral courage to do what Carter, Reagan, Bush (the elder) Clinton, Bush (the younger) and external_link failed to do. You can add in all the people in both houses that also failed to address the trade imbalance issue.

Rick
 
Your statement of farmers is far from true. Mega,, what ever you want to call them farmers will not fall away without government payments. Larger farmers have advantages in buying seed, fertilize, chemicals, and equipment. Just fact spread the cost of equipment over more acres, I can farm and make it without government payments. Folks that are not informed , sure like to cry about the government payments. Our farmers that already own the land are in very good financial shape today, are profits as good as they were three years ago maybe not but going broke not yet.
 
You don't read Ag Day,you watch it. Are you afraid to? Let me assure you,there's so much nnalert rump kissing on that show that it about makes me gag sometimes,but I watch it anyway. If you're so insecure in what you believe that it has to be pre approved by Hannity or Limbaugh before you can watch it,all I can say to you anymore is,what's the use.
 
Agreed. Term limits don't mean just one term. But 10 to 15 years is enough, if they haven't accomplished all they have to offer by then they need to move aside.
 
(quoted from post at 13:14:06 09/19/18) Take a drive around the country some day, you won't have to drive far to see a closed motel/hotel. They are all over and from many chains as well as Mom and Pop types. I don't doubt your info on the Marriott's, but how many did they put up then close?

TR--P has certainly had his share of hotels close, or sold off because they were losing money. He has much lower overhead than most hotels because he stiffs many of the construction contractors. He is well known to threaten lawsuits to get billings reduced and he is well known to follow through on the threats as well.
 
I've heard people say "tariffs are not the answer." Really? If that's true then why are they the answer for Canada, China Etc??
 
> ALL congressman's time, energy goes towards getting re-elected to their life long, cushy, hobnobbing, do nothing positions!

In Michigan we have had term limits long enough to prove they don't do what they're supposed to. Term limits increase the influence of lobbyists (who've been in Lansing long enough to know the ropes), and create a revolving door where legislators don't leave politics but rather jump from one state or local elected office to the next.

Oh, did you happen to hear about our Term Limits Poster Children, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Courser">Todd Courser</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cindy_Gamrat">Cindy Gamrat</a>?
 
Don't watch those either, and I'm not insecure, nor do I resort to insults or name calling. Matter of fact, except for saying that I'm in favor of the tariffs to do the job asked of them, I haven't taken a side on whether it's the tariffs or over production causing the low prices. You say it is and I just asked you to prove it. I can't see how asking someone to back up their claims, especially when they are as loudly spoken as yours, can be a bad thing. Just offer proof that it's the tariffs and I'll agree with you. You can't claim the same for me tho, because your hatred has so clouded your judgement you would never admit anything went well.
 
Trade wars, like real wars, come about when one country can't get another country do what it wants through other means, e.g. negotiation and diplomacy. And like real wars, costs are inflicted on both sides that might have been avoided through negotiations.

True, previous administrations have tried and failed to get everything they wanted out of China. But the present administration didn't even try. It sent a team of negotiators to Beijing who couldn't even agree among themselves what they expected to get out of their negotiations. Art of the deal, indeed. More like phart of the deal.
 
They just tore one down not far west of Minneapolis, couldn't have been more than a few years old. I hauled in the containers to load the beds and furniture then hauled them to Duluth to 2 different older motels. They rebuilt that one turned 90? to the road. I don't remember the name, it was "something in and suites".
 
Tom,
Some politicians serve 2 terms. One term in office and one term in Terre Haute's federal prison.
 
We may well be a winner in a trade war with China, a decade or so should tell the long story. For the short of it, as many say, we need to absorb some pain, although I believe most of those that say that are trying hard to avoid the pain. We are now on a long haul trip, led by a fellow that loves to showboat. We have a trade surplus with Canada, isn't that good enough to let them slide? The EU recently agreed to buy more beans but said they were going to do that anyhow, so if we don't lose market maybe we don't gain either. But the real deal now is tariffs hitting consumer prices. If poor folks were buying cheap products that may well be impacted buy new tariffs where will they get more income? All this is more complex than simply winning or losing. And if we see winning as crippling China's economy, remember, that economy has worldwide implications.
 
I would also like to say that if a fellow that inherited 200 million in the ninety's and immediately proceeded to lose it, and then enter into nearly a billion in debt and filed numerous bankruptcies, strikes anyone as a good business man, then I would ask you to look at all the most successful businessmen and tell me how many times they have filed for deadbeat status to survive. Warren Buffet, Bloomberg, pick anyone, tell me how bankruptcy makes you successful in any real sense of the word. I know it happens to good people, but not because they are good businessmen.
 
I know a lot of you do not like (or trust) facts and data but check out the unemployement rate for your state. Then ask some local business people how they are faring at finding reliable and capable employees? We may be surprised that between the very low unemployment rates and reduced immigration, we have no one to fill the jobs we want to bring back from overseas. In addition, longterm American demographics are not growth oriented.

Where does your state rank?

www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
 
About 5 miles from home there is a pretty good little IGA that has a lunch buffet. 6 months or so a year there are migrants in tobacco. Sometimes 50 or so for lunch. Gas station next door, Dollar store up the street gets much more business. And so on. I know all this well. The folks that own these businesses are hardcore T---p folks. But they don't ask for a green card when they service these Hispanic customers. They want the business. Maybe we should find a way to look at these folks as an asset. I am not an economist or even a business man, but with a leader using hatred and fear to control his supporters we do have something to be concerned about.
 
forbes business website says 40% of US corn production is sent to ethanol plants, 45% US corn production is used for livestock feed, 15% is used for food and beverages.Those could be somewhat dated statistics, because ethanol production is declining. When an e-plant takes in corn it would all be converted to ethanol with a by product of DDG's produced at the same time as processing the ethanol. Would not think they only process one half of what corn they purchase to ethanol as you stated. Ethanol demand is a important component of corn market price some have estimated 0.25 per bushel.
 
jm -- Did you read what I wrote or just decide for yourself? I clearly stated that responsible farmers of any size can make it, my whole family made it and prospered farming from the early 1900s until the present day because we learned to manage money and resources and pay as we go. Any large business will fail if cash flow significantly reduces and it does not take long, a mega farm may have advantages in getting cheaper seed and other inputs but they have employees and benefits that others don't have, when prices severely tighten many would struggle to service their debt and minus government payments they would really struggle. In 2010 there was a volcanoe eruption in Iceland which virtually shut down trans-atlantic air traffic for a week, in that short period of time large airlines such as Delta and British Airways came precariously close to folding due to lost revenue, these are multi-billion dollar public companies, are you really stupid enough to believe the same cannot happen to mega farms?
 
Why do you hammer this same point continuously in thread after thread? Would you rather have high unemployment? I don't understand how everyone who wants a job being able to get a job is a problem.
 
It is not a cafe owners responsibility to ask anyone for a green card or SS card or drivers license or anything else, it is the responsibility of the POTUS to ensure enforcement of the immigration laws as passed by congress and that is all the current POTUS has tried to do. The former POTUS failed miserably to perform his constitutional duties, maybe that is what you and many millions more prefer, I guess we will know soon.
 
There is a difference between migrant labor, and illegal immigrants. Migrant laborers come in with the correct paperwork, and go back home when their time here expires. If they stay illegally, it's up to the President, as chief law enforcement officer, to insure the laws are followed to catch them, and send them home.
 
Who said anything about crippling their economy? As far as I know all he is after is a level playing field and for them to quit stealing. If they hold out and damage their economy, how is that our fault?
 
I just posted a couple of facts and my source,and look at the response it got because I didn't agree with the stick horse cowboy fan club. It doesn't matter how moderate and fair I try to be in these things,there's a few who come after me no matter what.
 
(quoted from post at 13:03:58 09/19/18)

With all of these tariffs, what has it done for the disgusting milk prices? And what about the other agriculture products? What have the tariffs done for them?

There was record high prices for dairy and grain under the last administration. Prior to that there was record lows for grain and dairy prices under the guy in the early 2000's. Are we repeating history at the pocket book of the American Farmers?

These are some go the questions I have and would like to hear answers too.

Tariffs have bsically zilch to do with US dairy prices. What affects dairy prices is farmers producing a glut of milk now because the price was high 5 years ago, combined with gov't price restrictions/supports and changing consumer demand. Grain prices are like fuel prices, it's world wide price that can be affected by drought in Russia or anywhere else.

Tariffs themselves, I'm not big on them. But- every other nation in the world has tariffs on US goods or price supports in their own nation that put the US on a less than level playing field. No one has touched this subject in a effective way since Reagan IIRC. Time to start looking to our future.
 
I realize that no one is supposed to disagree with your positions. But my 1st amendment rights say I can state my beliefs and my technical training says I should collect some facts before I make decisions.

I also remember posting about the heavy semi traffic on the interstates due to the "much improved economy" in January 2016. You posted that it was wrong. Data says I was right. Your post says it wasn't. Facts or opinions?

Unemployment in my county is 2.9%..Now hiring signs everywhere...not many applicants.
The first question any reasonable CEO would ask before he built a new factory is "can I hire a sufficient supply of good employees, are they available?" Fact, not BS.
 
Go ahead and clutch your pearls and hang on tight because the DJT economy just walloped the employment records again plus the stock market capped another all time high, I have enjoyed the 22% gains in my 401K this year and look forward to more under the current administration. Hope your riding the wave.
 
I agree. The sad part is that we have failed to develop and implement a sound, timely and efficient guest worker program over the last 30 years. Both sides of the aisle have yelled at each other, done nothing, and looked to us for accolades for doing nothing.
 
I think we may be putting too much emphasis on trade deficit. China is selling a lot of poor americans cheap products in exchange for paper money. The agreement is they accept our paper for so much of their product, often consuming their natural resources and cheap labor. Not like we are losing vast reserves of gold and silver. Granted the theft and reproduction of copyrighted materials and intelligent design property is a problem, I am not sure tariffs will solve those problems, but our discussion is all academic. The train has left the station and the tariff experiment will have to play out, as well as another trip down the voodoo economic road and an enhanced national deficit and debt experiment. None of us, or those folks in the white house, actually know how this will turn out
 
Actually I would be ok with no immigration at all, but that won't happen. If the midterms turn out blue you can be sure it is because a large number of people came out to express their disgust with the current potus, if the gop retains control of both houses then you can believe a large number of folks agree with T---p and his methods. These elections will be about him as much as congress.
 
If everyday normal people are not disgusted with the antics of the left then they are either not paying attention or have been absolutely brainwashed into submission. DJT fights back against the lies, intolerance and demagoguery of the America hating leftists which have all but completely taken over the donkey party. His tweeting may not win him friends outside his base but he is pretty effective at exposing the frauds, liars and snakes he aims his tweets at.
 
I think the Chinese will eventually come to the negotiating table. We have way more stuff from them to put tariffs on than they do of ours and a Asian Stock Markets aren't doing well.
 
Hatred and fear? What is wrong with using legal workers. He has not said they cannot come he just wants them to come legally. What is wrong with that?
 

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