Grain prices???? Anyone selling????

JD Seller · Mar 16, 2018

In the last month there has been some good opportunities to sell grain and lock in future prices. Dec. 2018 corn hit $4 and soybeans could be sold in the high $10s. I just wondered if many took advantage of some pretty good prices. We sold old crop/new crop corn and beans. With corn locked in around $4 there is a profit to be made IF you watch your other costs.

If we have normal weather there is going to be large carry overs in grain. So we could have seen the highs for the year.

Bob Bancroft · Mar 16, 2018

With the recent run up in wheat, I sold the wheat I have in the bin. I only one time sold a crop I hadn't harvested yet, and it backfired.
We're having a new issue here with grain coming out of storage wetter than it went in. My wheat tested 13.6 late last summer. First load came out at 15.9. Corn and beans likewise. It didn't seem to matter whether the bin was aerated or not. I have a 30' bin 8 rings high, which holds about 350 tons of corn. It has an aeration floor, but no fan/transition. This is the first time since the bin was new 20 years ago that I've had any issue. I came close to losing some corn in it. I had filled it last fall, then drew out about 50 tons.

JD Seller · Mar 16, 2018

Did you run the fans any during the winter??? During the cold, low humidity, time in Jan. we ran the fans all week. I want the grain COLD. I rarely warm grain up again. I might have some sweating on the sides but no wet spots in the middle of the bin.

Pete in MD · Mar 16, 2018

He said his bin had no fan.

Bob Bancroft · Mar 16, 2018

Yes, on the ones that have fans. As I stated the 30' corn bin has no fan. I agree, I like the grain cold. Apparently it's been so damp here we went backwards.

NY 986 · Mar 16, 2018

I hate to be a Negative Nancy but unless there is a wide difference in contract price and cash delivery price the elevators for the most part work the dockage game to pay what ever they feel like so the benefit of the contract for the most part is negated. Some will let you buy the contract out to go elsewhere but there is still a cost. Just not enough grain produced in New York to have numerous elevators with intense competition. Heard the ethanol plant was docking extremely hard for fines, breaks, and foreign matter i.e. cob then deliveries fell off. Accountants figured the cost of railing corn in then decided they could live with imperfection so the sucker was turned down and did not draw off the bottom of a load. This was around the first of the year so they might be docking hard again.

Tom from IL · Mar 16, 2018

I sold some old beans today. I had missed some opportunities to sell, but decided to unload today while the price was a little north of $10. I have not sold any new crop yet.
I agree with your practice of getting stored corn as cold as possible, and then leave it alone. It has worked for me for years and have seldom had any problem with it keeping.

Bruce from Can. · Mar 16, 2018

I sold 45 ton of oats/barley two weeks ago $220.00 per ton at the bin. Never got so much for mixed grain in my life. Local feed mill makes a lot of goat and horse feed, and they don?t want anything in the mixed grain but oats/barley. If it has wheat in the mix , the price will drop to around $125.00 .

paul · Mar 16, 2018

I sold some old crop along the way.

I have not sold new crop.

You must have a very good basis where you are located jdseller, prices in my backyard are no where near what you mention. Basis grows quite rapidly when prices go up a little, so we are not really locking in profitable prices for 2018. CBOT might have gone up, but new crop delivery prices have not risen much locally. They are 'better' prices that we were looking at 2 months ago, but I would not call them 'good' or 'profitable' yet.

It is difficult to be in March and be excited to lock in 'break even' for the whole next years worth of work!

At least I'm not a dairy farmer. Feel for those folk.

Paul

centash · Mar 16, 2018

Sold some old crop soys a few days ago, 13.16 per bushel out the bin.Sold some old crop corn a week ago direct to the feed mill delivered for 4.75.
Canadian $
Ben

caterpillar guy · Mar 16, 2018

Yup sold a load of beans for new crop and sold some 19 wheat. Got over the 5.00 mark for the wheat and a bit under 10 for the beans. Probably should do some more beans. Beans have only been about 10 in this spike here for new crop. I need to look at corn for fall.
At Grand ledge new corn 3.73 19 corn 3.70 The wheat is SRW soft red winter wheat.
beans 9.81 19 beans 9.39
wheat 4.50 19 wheat 5.10

JD Seller · Mar 16, 2018

NY 986: Our corn is really clean as we run the majority of it through a cleaner right after the dryer. This way we do not have issues with fines bridging in the bin. Helps maintain good air flow in the bins. The added benefit is we feed cattle any way so the fines work just like ground corn. LOL

It cost us a little more when we dry but we never try to store corn, long term, that is over 13.5 moisture. 15% corn is not stable without messing with it a lot. I have run the numbers in our drying system. when the corn is hot it only costs us 2 cents to knock that additional 1 1/2 points of moisture out. Cheap insurance against hot spots and storage problems.

These two things mean we almost never get dockage. Also I bet that we sell less than 10% of our grain that is not contracted. Very rarely is the spot/cash price the best way to go.

JD Seller · Mar 16, 2018

We have a competitive market here. In a 100 mile radius five six ethanol plants. Two large sweetener plants. Then the Miss. river market in several spots. Also the basis was good for about four hours on the one day before they adjusted it up.

We try to have at least 25% sold before planting. 50% by tasseling. 75% by harvest. This gives us good windows for prices but still lets us adjust for weather/crop issues.

Also use options when they are favorable. That is getting harder to do with all of the electronic trading. The windows of profitability are small and fast.

fixerupper · Mar 16, 2018

Just locked in 50% of my 2018 corn for $3.81 cash fall delivery at the local ethanol plant. They were $3.87 a couple days ago but I blew the opportunity. No beans priced but probably will lock some in Monday depending on what mood the market is in.

paul · Mar 16, 2018

I don't think the Mississippi is open yet. It has become a poor market anyhow. Used to be very important when I was a kid, any farmer could say when ice out and locks opened on the Mississippi. But they haven't kept them up this far north, the river just isn't viable here. We depend on the rail cars to run he Pacific NW now, and more so rail down towards Texas of late.

But any direction you go, Minnesota and Dakota produces a large amount more grain than they can consume, and we are the farthest from any export market possible. We pioneered the ethanol market up here, and we are going to run 20% biodiesel next summer, we try to use up this cheap stuff as much as we can local!

Here are today's quotes. Wheat is so minor you can only spot sell it when in season.

$3.44 and $9.61 fall delivery isn't a lot to get excited about. Tho I think beans will look like a good thing come fall.....

Paul

JD Seller · Mar 16, 2018

Paul here is a link to River Gulf's prices in Davenport. Also the market prices I picked up where 2-3 weeks ago. They have been trending down since then.

http://www.rivergulf.com/index.cfm?show=11&mid=3

centralilbaler · Mar 17, 2018

I dont know if anyone is selling, but alot of grain moving in central IL. This past week i've seen alot of bins being emptied.

Commercial Farmer · Mar 17, 2018

Most of my corn usually goes to Fulton Sunoco, never have been docked.

Ken Macfarlane · Mar 17, 2018

That?s amazing Bruce, I think people are selling oats for 100$ a ton here.

NY 986 · Mar 17, 2018

I did not have any corn last year so it was not my crop being docked. I heard comments made by a few others so I have no idea if they are not setting their combine properly or not harvesting a variety at its optimum moisture. A lot of times I find harvesting in the low twenty's moisture-wise helps cut down on kernel breakage. In the end the point remains about elevators making up margin by dockage at least where I live.

Ken Macfarlane · Mar 17, 2018

I looked and it is up locally, 200$ a ton bagged.

Grain prices???? Anyone selling????

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