38% Decline

GBCMAN

Member
Watching ABC news this morning and across the bottom of the screen was a news banner saying USDA expects 38% decline in farm income this year.
I'm not a farmer, So is this accurate and what's the cause?
 

SC farmers were expected to have $300 million in losses due to the storms and heavy rains we had last month. That estimate has been revised upward to $587 million.

KEH
 
Never heard a figure but Ohio and Indiana had lots of acres completely wiped out due to heavy rains. If you had an air boat you could have gone for miles at many places over crop ground, only thing to stop you would have been fence rows or tree lines.
 
I don't know the real 'numbers' but it seems that economists are always complaining about farm subsidies (something like $20 billion/year now), yet we're giving billions away to the oil companies who turn around and sell our oil to foreign countries.
 
(quoted from post at 07:25:56 11/25/15) I don't know the real 'numbers' but it seems that economists are always complaining about farm subsidies (something like $20 billion/year now), yet we're giving billions away to the oil companies who turn around and sell our oil to foreign countries.

The so called subsidies the oil companies get are in the form of tax write offs. Things like the cost of exploring for oil which is an expense. A farmer gets to write off stuff too. Repairs, fertilizer, soil sample cost (exploring as such) some on new equipment (plus the mileage and associated cost of looking for it, again exploring) and so on. So you start eliminating the tax write offs on legitimate expenses for one industry just how long do you think it will be before these same groups going after oil companies start going after tax write offs for the farmer and other businesses too? Be careful what you wish for, you just may get it.


Plus there is a ban on exporting oil produced in the US. They are fighting about that in congress right now with some wanting to lift that ban.

Rick
 
To be fair we had some really good years the previous 4 years.

But - that was because big parts of the world had poor crops, creating a shortage of wheat, corn, and beans. We didn't run out, but we used up what was sitting around the world.

If you living on the large areas that had poor crops, the high prices of those years didnt do you much good, you had nothing it sell at those prices.....

Meanwhile, fuel, fertilizer, machinery, tire prices all rose to match the higher grain prices.

Those higher grain prices got us all to grow more, better crops, we farmers worked hard to really make a lot of crop.

With better weather, we really produced a lot of grain, here in North America, in South America, in Asia......

And so we have more grain than we need around the globe.

This is making grain prices fall, to maybe half of what it was just a couple years ago.

But our seed, fertilizer, machinery prices have not fallen yet. Taxes, health care, etc are all rising.....

So yes, farmers are in a bind again.

It is normal for farm ecconomics to swing like a pendulum. This is just going to be one of those bigger than normal swings. The high 2 years ago was really, really high for those that had grain; the low next year likely will be really low and wreck a few folks pretty bad.

We can add in the poor ecconomy in parts of Europe and the rapidly sagging ecconomy of China and it will make things much worse. Those countries still need food, but they can't afford to spend good money on good food, they will bargin shop and live off of reserves, not import as much.

China buys nearly half our soybeans, shut that down and guess what happens to us????


Anyhow, the short answer is 38% is probably better than it really is.

Paul
 
(quoted from post at 06:50:59 11/25/15) Never heard a figure but Ohio and Indiana had lots of acres completely wiped out due to heavy rains. If you had an air boat you could have gone for miles at many places over crop ground, only thing to stop you would have been fence rows or tree lines.

But other areas of the country got above average yields too. I guess here was a case. Most guys I know ran +10 to 15 BPA on both corn and beans. And there is a lot of land in this area that came out of CRP over the last 4-5 years. More than made up the losses in other areas. That's hurting prices too.

Rick
 
I know a farmer it's been said has 600 acres he never got planted here in Ohio. I didn't want to ask him. Good thing he's older and well heeled.
 
I guess that would be assuming you made a bunch of money last year! I'm actually expecting to be ahead this year by about that much. I'm hoping the elevator leaves me $1.38 after I pay for the seed and fertilizer.
 
Oil companies can claim expenses as expenses. And they cannot sell US oil to another country. You need to find another news source.
 
(quoted from post at 16:00:10 11/25/15) Oil companies can claim expenses as expenses. And they cannot sell US oil to another country. You need to find another news source.

X2!

Keep in mind that the people claiming this want the increased tax revenue mostly for social welfare programs. They don't stop to think that they may be driving the company off shore. Anyone who thinks that companies won't up and move over taxes is dreaming.

Rick
 
Name one "subsidy" given to oil companies, I will save you the time, there are none, that is a ridiculous myth and an outright lie which is often
repeated by our biased media.You may also be shocked to learn that exporting oil was banned by the U.S. congress over 40 years ago.
 
(quoted from post at 19:54:59 11/25/15) Name one "subsidy" given to oil companies, I will save you the time, there are none, that is a ridiculous myth and an outright lie which is often
repeated by our biased media.You may also be shocked to learn that exporting oil was banned by the U.S. congress over 40 years ago.
What I meant was that oil companies are selling REFINED oil as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel ... 3.8 million barrels a day at one point last summer. That's a fact. And if you read my reply, notice that I never said we are 'subsidizing' oil companies, but they do get billions in tax breaks and loopholes. Main point is that farmers aren't out to line their pockets, can't say the same for oil companies.
 
Those refined products are produced by American refinery
workers who are among the most highly compensated industrial workers left in America,
without those markets overseas people would be laid off. It is no different than selling grain and dairy products and meat overseas, our
economy needs more export opportunities, not less. I am definitely interested in lining my own pockets so I do not understand your statement
concerning farmers not being interested in maximizing profits.
 
(quoted from post at 19:17:01 11/26/15) LAA, lighten up and enjoy your Thanksgiving!
I've had a great Thanksgiving, but have to add that I never told the sale barn "too high, I won't take over $150 for my steers". The oil companies do get some special treatment, like depletion allowance, but it is all just tax code. No such thing as tax breaks and loopholes, just tax incentives. Like special depreciation rules for farm production structures.
 

We sell tractor parts! We have the parts you need to repair your tractor - the right parts. Our low prices and years of research make us your best choice when you need parts. Shop Online Today.

Back
Top