Will September 2015 be the start of the next crash?

Have any of you been following the 7 year business cycle ? Things are possibly going to turn down between September 13-28 . Anyone heard of this ? Some say could be the start of tribulations ,or a extended time of great suffering. Could be a great time to dump stock shares.

This brings to mind a silly question. If I have sum of money in one bank, more than enough to pay off a short term note in another bank, and the economy crashes, will the note be devalued the same as my cash?

It is true that all things in nature resonate at some natural frequency. But it's also true that systems respond to many external forces. If they didn't, for example, you wouldn't be able to drive your car down the road in a straight line.

If you want to bet against the market, there are plenty of guys willing to take that bet. All the casinos in Vegas were paid for by gamblers who figured they could beat the system. And if you go down to your local marina, you'll find plenty of yachts owned by stockbrokers, but not so many that belong to their clients.

As for me, I look forward to a bear market just as much as a bull one. In a bear market I buy low, in a bull market I sell high; either one is just fine.

>[If] the economy crashes, will the note be devalued the same as my cash?

Historically, cash has been king in every US economic crisis.

The system now is so artificial and propped up with smoke and mirrors that I don't know why it hasn't already crashed big time. I mean like worse than 1929 big time.

As for when it happens? Who knows.

1987 1994,2001,2008,2015 . If you research it it seems to be true .

I keep waiting for the big one from the government printing and spending money they don't have.

Pretty hard to go down when you're still at the bottom.

Markets go up and down all the time. Like re-distribution of wealth.

In 08 I intentionally sold stock at about a 50% loss, then jumped back in the market in Jan of 09. So on paper I had a loss, which my CPA writes off $3000 each year off my income or that money could be used to offset any capital gains in the future. The money I put back in the market in 09 has returned.

So, the markets are not for the weak or nervous wondering what could happen. Like ammo, if you say there is going to be a shortage, good chance there will be. Just learn how to take advantage of what happens, even the down turns.

This kind of messaging is a constant from the people that want to sell you their stock picking advice, or more literally, take some of your money for themselves. Some of them want to sell you overpriced shares in a gold scam and others just want to "help you understand" their jaundiced view of the world.

I'll just ride it back down like I did last time. Its more fun riding it up though. I just hope if I ever need the money or when my kids take it, after I'm gone, its on the upside.
I talk about how much I made or lost but it doesn't really happen until you sell what you brought.

Something in my past recalls a pattern associated with the same spirals of a snails shells .

HA! THAT's the "Funny for the Day", Bob!

(quoted from post at 03:24:19 03/28/15) Have any of you been following the 7 year business cycle ? Things are possibly going to turn down between September 13-28 . Anyone heard of this ? Some say could be the start of tribulations ,or a extended time of great suffering. Could be a great time to dump stock shares.

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LOL look back pretty far. Been going on for a very long time. So basically it's a gimmick to get you into church. A lot of church's it isn't about religion, it's about your money and power.

Rick

I missed much of the 2008 crash by converting stock to money market when the market was at 12,500, on its way down from 14,000 to 8,000. Problem is, didn't get back in when it was low, so missed out on a lot of the stock gain in the recovery. Kind of thinking of doing the same thing again, but I know its gonna be a knock down drag out with my "financial adviser" to do so.

Seems to me that a major correction is more likely to occur when the Fed finally raises interest rates, rather than some kind of cycle. There is so much outside manipulation of the economy now that I don't think historical cycles are very relevant anymore.

I think the powers that be could pull the plug any time they want. With the corruption going on nothing comes as a surprise any more. Trouble is, what can we do about it?

How does that work when your cash is in a bank which fails?

There IS a cycle - we DO get recessions roughly every 7 years.

BUT I don't think you can look any more deeply into that. It's the normal "breathing" of an open market.

it can't always go up. It can't always go down. But it also can't just remain flat.

So if it can't keep going up, can't keep going down, and can't stay the same - what you get are cycles of up and down.

It booms - and then it gets ahead of itself so it pulls back into decline - people adapt and it starts booming again.


My only complaint about our current economy is that we had the last recession 7+ years ago, but this "recovery" we keep hearing about may have only put us in a slightly better position... it's not really by all that much -and it came at a very high cost of government intervention.

We've ARTIFICIALLY put the stock market into overdrive with free money. Once interest rates start to rise (which HAS to happen) that free ride ends in a crash. Just like the government getting involved in the housing market, making houses more available - lot a good it did us, huh?

I have heard that the top billionaires are selling stocks and buying gold, silver and precious metals and other jewels.
Do they know sumthing we should know?

I remember my mom said in the 1930s she had $11 in the bank and I believe she got $4 back after it crashed. Of course Im sure it is a lot different now days....it better be.

A Scary Obituary


In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh , had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship ."

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the
beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200
years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."

The Obituary follows:

Born 1776, Died 2016

It doesn't hurt to read this several times.
Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law in
St. Paul, Minnesota, points out some interesting facts concerning
the last Presidential election:


Number of States won by: external_link: 19 Romney: 29
Square miles of land won by: external_link: 580,000 Romney: 2,427,000
Population of counties won by: external_link: 127 million Romney: 143 million
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by:
external_link: 13.2 Romney: 2.1


Professor Olson adds: "In aggregate, the map of the territory
Romney won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of the country.


external_link territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in low income tenements and living off various forms of government welfare..."


Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the "complacency and apathy" phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase..


If Congress grants amnesty and citizenship to twenty million criminal invaders called illegal's - and they vote - then we can say goodbye to the USA in fewer than five years.

Nobody has lost insured bank deposits since establishment of the FDIC in 1933. Even W didn't manage to pull that off in '08, although he certainly gave the FDIC a run for its money. For those folks with more than a quarter million in one bank, yes there were a few who lost money. If you're fortunate enough to have that much in savings, you probably shouldn't keep it all in one bank.

Just because it hasn't happened, does not reassure me that it can't happen in a terrible crash.

Everything cycles

I stay in tbe market with the amount of cash I can afford to lose, but the dividends have been great!

A booming stock market and a strong, healthy economy are, unfortunately, not the same thing. They are not even necessarily complementary.

How can I phrase so this so that I don't upset anyone ... for 7 years America has been in the ditch, there is no where to go but up. All of the economic indicators point to a recovery: gdp up, housing up, construction up, retail sales up, unemployment down, interest rates low, gas prices low, consumer confidence growing ... sounds like an economic recovery. Let's give it a chance.

Kinda like healthcare and health insurance. They get used interchangeably but they are NOT the same.

Interest is up stock market down you only get mugged if you go down town

(quoted from post at 08:56:19 03/28/15) How does that work when your cash is in a bank which fails?

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Most banks have FDIC insurance. That means, your money deposited is covered by the federal goverment program that if the bank fails, your "lost" money will be paid by the goverment. Well to be clear, the goverment dont just hand you a check for any losses, the goverment takes over a failing bank so things continue to opperate. While the bank is operating, they are selling off its assets and slowly shutting the bank down.

The problem is, the FDIC has 10-30 Billion dollars of assets. Bank deposits are 5-10 Trillion dollars. Just a little bit of a shortfall there... Thats why people always say you should never have more money in the bank than you can afford to lose. Things are fine if only a handful of banks close at any one time, if a bunch of them close, you will be getting what they call a "haircut" on your money.

(quoted from post at 09:25:24 03/28/15) I have heard that the top billionaires are selling stocks and buying gold, silver and precious metals and other jewels.
Do they know sumthing we should know?

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There are alot of sumthings they know that we should. But almost all of those sumthings have nothing to do with precious metals or jewels...

Unless you are a billionaire, trying to live like a billionaire isnt going to work.