Greg, I have been thinking a lot about this ever since Nov 6. My farm is 300 miles from where my house is. I live in the 2nd largest city in WA State and my farm is 15 miles from the 3rd largest city in the state.
The culture since the end of WW2 has been to leave the rural areas and live in the city. All the skills to survive after a disaster have been lost by the majority of the population due to this fact. The amount of people in your estimate, I believe, will be much lower due to this fact alone. The killing's will begin as soon as law and order breaks down within the cities.
Also, most city dwellers are afraid of their own shadows after dark. Then you have to factor in all the small towns and isolated houses between you and the big city that have guns and they will whittle down the amount of people that will be able to make it to your place. By then they will be so weak from starvation, lack of rest and exhaustion from being on the move while trying to protect themselves from all the others that are on the move, they will be pretty docile by the time they reach your place. Not to mention disease's that will crop up very rapidly after a disaster when sanitation breaks down.
You on the other hand seem to be better prepared, at least you are looking forward, you will be in much better shape. At your own place, know the lay of the land, rested, fed and have your family with you that you or anyone in this situation will do anything to protect.