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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

What would you do?

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Greg1959

11-16-2012 18:52:07




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Just a thought from another thread. I also posted there.

Let's say a catastrophe happens and you are left to fend for yourself

I feel that many of 'think' we are prepared but what if....?

I live within 150 miles of a city that has a population of 300,000 people. So, after something bad happens (like hurricane Sandy, for example) and people become desperate. (loss of life at 30%=90,000. 210,000 left alive). Fast forward, after a few weeks, this mob of people will begin to branch out further into the country looking for food to survive..) Average human walking speed is 5 MPH. let's say they walk 10 hours per day= 50 miles a day. I live 150 miles away. That is 3 days walking time. Some are weak and can't walk as fast so they will come in waves. (Loss of life at 50%=105,000. 105,000 left alive). Now I have a 105,000 people coming at me that are hungry and wanting to feed their kids. I don't have enough food to share with everyone (food would be gone in less than a day), but there is not enough bullets to ward off 105,00 attackers! Let alone, the surrounding areas that also joined them. In my opinion, your best bet would be to run and hide and avoid any contact with others.

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36 coupe

11-18-2012 04:11:50




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
The city has giant warehouses and stores full of food supplies.Why would they walk out to the country where there no growing crops,23 degrees this morning.German civilians did take the train out to the country to steal food during ww2 but only after city food supplies were gone.You need to spend the day cutting wood instead of sitting around worrying.



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Just Another Old Geezer

11-17-2012 08:41:51




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Having read all of the replys I feel there one element missing. Assuming that it is a nation/world wide ecconomic melt down. What is going to happen at our nuclear power plants??? If all of the people are looking for food, who will be maintaining them?? If they are shutdown, with control rods down, How long will they be able to continue to cool themselves without human intervention?? how long before cooling system plugs, fails etc?? if all of the nuclear plants in the us fully meltdown, what will be the effect on the enviroment???. 25 to 30 years before we will be able to be outside for more than a few minuets at a time. how much longer before we are able to grow crops again?? The end of civilazation today, I think would be like a slow verson of the thermal nuclear war we feared during the cold war. I personaly have no survival plans, as I feel that this would be a case where the living would envy the dead.

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oldtanker

11-17-2012 07:26:50




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to pete 23, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Quoting Removed, click Modern View to see

Those are the ones that don't know how to handle fire arms.

Rick



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oldtanker

11-17-2012 07:05:59




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Jim sense I retired from the Army I can't begin to count the number of people who have ask me questions like the original poster stated here. Plus 2 friends are convinced that something bad is going to happen and they scared my wife a bit so she was coming up with plans. Because of military training (I taught tactics to young officers) I spent some time evaluating the threat and coming to conclusions based on different scenarios.
Rick

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greygoat

11-17-2012 06:47:57




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Back in 1957, or 58, a civil defence fella came
around my Dad's farm, and asked how many people
he could put up,(in the barn), in case of a
nuclear emergency. Dad said "NONE !" the guy
wrote 30 on his clipboard, got in his car and left.
Can you imagine 30 people comeing to the door begging and whineing, for toilet paper, soap,
asprin, food ? And sooner or later they'ed attack
you, trying to get what they believe they have a
right to! Time to stock up on double 00 buckshot.
And post a sign.."keep on moveing"

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gtractorfan

11-17-2012 06:41:01




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Sounds a bit paranoid-- all 105,000 survivors thinking "let's eat at Greg's place"? Nothing between your place and the city in 150 miles?



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David G

11-17-2012 06:25:59




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Greg, you are worrying too much.



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John Fulton

11-17-2012 05:52:11




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Greg, the response to a devistating disaster you present, I doubt will never happen in this country. Americans, as most other civilized people, are naturally conditioned to go toward disaster than away from it. We show empathy and support for toward our fellow citizens, not hatred. We may not all be loyal church-goers, but we do, conscienely or not, espouse Christian ideals ie. I am not a Bible-thumping radical, but I think the verse"As Ye do unto the least of these, my Brethern, Ye do unto me" applies to our national psycie.
The scenerio you present assumes a total breakdown of civilization. This is something only radical milita groups espouse.

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VernMI

11-17-2012 05:35:43




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Some will have antique tractors and fuel hidden in their garages and get to your place in less than 24 hours. Better build a concrete bunker and store a years worth of food and water.



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Stephen Newell

11-17-2012 05:03:41




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Hmm, two doomsday threads on one page. Are you worried about the direction of this country?



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Fred Goodrich

11-17-2012 04:46:10




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Offer them all a Twinkie.



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VernMI

11-17-2012 05:28:42




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Fred Goodrich, 11-17-2012 04:46:10  
Twinkies are listed for $900 on EBAY.



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JF in CT

11-17-2012 04:38:52




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Walk 150 miles? Are these the same generations that drive their kids from the house to the end of the driveway to wait for the bus in the SUV? Go out and search for food? Most of the "city folk" I know couldn't find their way out of a wet paper bag if the "gubmint" didn't deliver it for them.



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Bret4207

11-17-2012 04:32:05




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
IMO, based on actual experience, it will be your neighbors that start on you. I don't mean Bill and Fran at the next farm over, I mean the mutt druggie rat living on welfare in that rental trailer 3 miles over in Skunk Holler, or in the little village or settlement down the road. We had a complete loss of power in January, over 6 million on both sides of the border. Within hours we had looting, thefts, stuff like that. So they put a travel ban and curfew on. The mutts all own ATVs and snowmobiles and they'll even resort to foot. They stole the generator that ran the phone substation. They stole fuel, wood, pretty much whatever they could get to. We had a group of volunteers to watch the new generator at the phone building 24/7. All this was in the first 3 days. I was without power for 15. It got pretty bad after a few more days.

Another town I worked in had a very poor power grid. The lights would often fail for 2-3 hours, say 8-10 times a year. We'd all get called in for looter patrol, especially if it was nighttime. People are animals.

Those who laugh at people considering this stuff need to go through just a shadow of it before you scoff.

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MarkB_Mi

11-17-2012 05:01:52




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Bret4207, 11-17-2012 04:32:05  
Bret, that's a far more likely scenario. People won't travel far to steal if there's plenty to steal where they're at.

During the so-called Rodney King riots in LA, I lived in an upper-middle class neighborhood in Long Beach that was surrounded by lower class neighborhoods. There was rioting within a couple of miles to north, south and west of me, but I never saw a single looter. It wasn't because they feared the Jewish doctors and lawyers who were my Bixby Knolls neighbors. It was simply because they saw no reason to leave their own neighborhoods when they could loot the stores close to home.

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Traditional Farmer

11-17-2012 05:22:48




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to MarkB_Mi, 11-17-2012 05:01:52  
Probably had more to do with the National Guard between your neighborhood and the rioting.



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Traditional Farmer

11-17-2012 04:52:47




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Bret4207, 11-17-2012 04:32:05  
You nailed it thats exactly the the way it'd go most places.Many People have a false sense of security.The Cops will be home protecting their own place and family and who'd expect them to do anything different?



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plow hand

11-17-2012 04:30:38




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
I would find a hobby or volunteer at a senior living center or church..maybe deliver meals on wheels and not let these ideas consume me..



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HillsOfTN

11-17-2012 04:21:19




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
You won"t have to worry about many of them - if they are truly walkng 5 mph and trying to cover 50 miles a day. Even a young healthy person would be pushed to do that more than one day. (If you doubt that, try getting on a treadmill at just four mph and see how many miles you can do!)

After that first day, everybody would be looking at their fellow walkers and seeing hamburger meat! That"s when the real fun would begin.

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ohiojim

11-17-2012 03:47:49




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
sounds like oldtanker has this thought out, that's what i was thinkin



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MarkB_MI

11-17-2012 03:45:40




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Oh boy, another "prepper".

Somebody is going to walk 150 miles to your house on an empty stomach? Have you tried walking even twenty miles without food? Well, if the catastrophe you describe ever happens, the Christian thing to do would be to feed anyone who makes the trip. Surely you can manage one more mouth to feed.



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Billy NY

11-17-2012 02:20:05




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Strategically, where I am if there ever was a situation where citizens become refugees, and were headed north out of the big metro areas south of here, and wanted to head into Vermont, like many of the NJ residents have been doing now via automobile, that would be an overwhelming amount of people, and seemingly incomprehensible to deal with on any level. The recent destruction by hurricane Sandy, is just the tiny tip of the iceberg, it would take a large heavily armed force with several or more fall back positions where they could bottleneck things, demolish bridges and so on, a colossal humanitarian nightmare, and one heck of a decision for anyone along the path to make as to "bug out" or dig in and fight. Total insanity to even consider a situation like this and knowing how to deal with it and survive.

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Bob Huntress

11-17-2012 00:47:38




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Greg, how serious do you consider preparedness? May I be honest. It starts with realizing that you are not capable of preparing for any possible situation. You can make a sincere and accurate risk assessment of what threats you reasonably expect, yet there are still possibilities that can surprise you. Look around you, for a start, and ask yourself what real problems could happen? Most disasters, whether man made or natural, carry the same consequence to you. When you talk about disaster preparedness, you are generally looking at steps that might secure your ability to deal with an immediate or very short term disruption in your life. Let's say you suffer a storm that shuts down your county for a month, or a terrorist event that isolates your family at home for a month. You can start to see that the steps for preparing will be common to each, and beyond this, you see that you are simply preparing to maintain yourself for a relatively short period of time until the disruption is past. Your food supply is expected to be reasonably restored. You just need to survive until then. You need to be able protect your health, security, shelter etc for not more than a month or so. As this relates to you food and water, you most likely would maintain a supply of canned or packed food to feed yourself and family until life services are restored and bottled water etc. When you start talking about terms of time beyond that, you start talking about doomsday prepping, which is a next level beyond simply preparing for a disaster. This is where you start talking about those Heirloom seed packs and serious lifestyle changes that will likely be at least semi permanent. This is the level where you start talking about replenishable food and water, shelter that doesn't depend on the grid and security after society breaks down. This is what people payed for the 1950's absorbtion refrigerator/freezer that can be used off a propane tank for. Basically, you have to determine what threats you are preparing for, and how long you expect to be affected. BTW, if you are doomsday prepping, you pretty much need to start living that life under current conditions.

Put a different way, a large tote box filled with canned food and dry goods is disaster preparedness. A 28' Conex box filled with pallets of MRE's is doomsday prepping. Mind you, there is nothing wrong with doomsday prepping. I just want you to understand that if you are at that level, you need to realize that you have whole lifestyle changes that come with that. If you are concerned that a grave threat exist that requires such a preparedness, I hope you are also staying in top physical shape, as medical care will never be available. You obviously don't want to face such with a two and a half pack a day smoking habit. You see where I am going with this? Disaster preparedness is a well thought box in the corner, some extra batteries for the flashlight and a heater that doesn't need electricity. Doomsday prepping is a change to how you live life, even now.

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Traditional Farmer

11-16-2012 23:41:08




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Hey no one needs to be prepared for anything the Gov't will come quickly and take care of all your needs just look at how well the Feds took care of the folks that were involved in Sandy and Katrina
don't believe your lying eyes about what the folks said on TV I have it from a Gov't Guy that everything went smoothly(LOL)
It doesn't have to be a huge event to need to have things to survive or carry on life in some sort of decent fashion.There are so many people now that in the event of a widespread power outage wouldn't have any water,fuel or food almost immediately because they really live day to day or at most week to week counting on gas stations to be open,Pizza place,grocery stores etc to be open .Being prepared for the unexpected is like having liability insurance on the farm and vehicles,hope I never use it but if I need it I'll be poop out of luck if I don't have it.

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oldtanker

11-16-2012 23:25:24




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
This is funny!

For this to play out like you first stated it would also involve the complete and total collapse of the federal, state and local governments.

Then all those city folks would have to leave instead of waiting for some to come and help them, like so many did on the east coast just after Sandy hit.

The natural instinct is to head toward a safer place with easy living conditions.....in the northern hemisphere that means south.

So your numbers are a bit off. 1. of 300K 100K are just dead. Another 100K stay put crying for help and the other 100K turns first on them. So now you have 100K that can go out and forage.......OPPS, most of em would have no idea how to do that.

Now again your numbers are goofy. 50 miles in a day? You have to be joking! At the end of basic training we had to do a 30 mile forced march. That was with a full ruck, weapon and all the battle rattle. Guys the weighed in at 150 were carrying over 1/2 of their body weight. Now in the Army a forced march is 6MPH with a 5 minute break every 2 hours. I don't think that most of us could have gone another 5 blocks at the end let alone another 20 miles. ANd at the end of basic we were in great shape! These survivors are going to have to carry everything they need plus spend time looking for food. They will turn on each other in a het beat, average 10-12 miles a day on good days and in a week be undernurished. The sick, lame and lazy are just going to be left behind. Most would not make the 50 miles. Most of the ones who are armed have no real skill with a weapon and will be armed with hand guns.

Now if you are going to run and hide and have no pre set up and stocked position you too will be packing the things with you that are needed to survive. So you too will be moving slow. Now add in that as you move the people in the area you are moving into are going to treat you as a threat.

So your beat bet is to set tight and protect whats yours.

Rick

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JMS./MN

11-16-2012 23:17:06




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Your first mathematical mistake.....105,000 survivors are not coming only your way. Assume they radiate 360 degrees...how many are coming into the one degree of your azimuth? If you are 150 miles away, how wide a swath is that one degree? How many neighbors do you have in that radii? It is getting comical reading about the stockpiling survivalists, all the gun toters, macho testosterone overloads.

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Red Mud

11-16-2012 22:58:05




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
There is a lot of talk about this on tv, I've noticed Jim Bakker and his Tammy Fay lookalike are pushing 5 gal buckets full of groceries with a 20 year shelf life. They eat some of the stuff on tv and tell viewers how good it is, I'm sure it will still taste the same in 20 years.



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Traditional Farmer

11-16-2012 23:27:09




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Red Mud, 11-16-2012 22:58:05  
3rd class eating beats 1st class starving anytime.They eat rats in China not because they love rats but because they like to eat sometimes.



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Red Mud

11-16-2012 22:57:36




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
There is a lot of talk about this on tv, I've noticed Jim Bakker and his Tammy Fay lookalike are pushing 5 gal buckets full of groceries with a 20 year shelf life. They eat some of the stuff on tv and tell viewers how good it is, I'm sure it will still taste the same in 20 years.



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Organicfarmer1972

11-16-2012 22:05:33




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
I agree with big Fred , what you have is the zombie apocalypse . All you have to do is feed them twinkies........oh crap, they went out of business today!!



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LeonardWD45

11-16-2012 21:32:43




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Greg, I have been thinking a lot about this ever since Nov 6. My farm is 300 miles from where my house is. I live in the 2nd largest city in WA State and my farm is 15 miles from the 3rd largest city in the state.

The culture since the end of WW2 has been to leave the rural areas and live in the city. All the skills to survive after a disaster have been lost by the majority of the population due to this fact. The amount of people in your estimate, I believe, will be much lower due to this fact alone. The killing's will begin as soon as law and order breaks down within the cities.

Also, most city dwellers are afraid of their own shadows after dark. Then you have to factor in all the small towns and isolated houses between you and the big city that have guns and they will whittle down the amount of people that will be able to make it to your place. By then they will be so weak from starvation, lack of rest and exhaustion from being on the move while trying to protect themselves from all the others that are on the move, they will be pretty docile by the time they reach your place. Not to mention disease's that will crop up very rapidly after a disaster when sanitation breaks down.

You on the other hand seem to be better prepared, at least you are looking forward, you will be in much better shape. At your own place, know the lay of the land, rested, fed and have your family with you that you or anyone in this situation will do anything to protect.

Leonard

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big fred

11-16-2012 21:31:08




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
What you're describing sounds more like the typical zombie apocalypse. I've got more immediate concerns to deal with.



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pete black

11-16-2012 21:07:07




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
like i asked in other post. are you prepared to defend or to share?



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pete black

11-16-2012 21:07:06




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
like i asked in other post. are you prepared to defend or to share?



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Loosehandle

11-16-2012 21:04:14




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
5 mph is more of a jog.



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EricInSEI

11-16-2012 21:02:18




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
So the entire population is going to walk in a straight line toward your house? If they were moving out from the city in all directions (a circle), 150 miles out they are going to be pretty well scattered out. If you were near a major highway you would see more, away from the highway a lot less.



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BCnT

11-16-2012 20:41:58




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
i'm about 450 miles from New Orleans and we had em here in cars...running out of gas and hiking thru pastures during the katrina evac before the storm ever hit...you naysayers keep your head in the sand.
all this horsechit about superstorms...read up about The Great Storm of 1900...estimates were between 7-12,000 dead...i went thru Hurricane Carla in '61...175mph sustained winds and gusts over 200.
here on the Gulf Coast,95 mph is a squall line.

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Bob Huntress

11-16-2012 21:06:26




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to BCnT, 11-16-2012 20:41:58  
It's not naysaying, BCnT. I'm saying that we need a more complete view of what happens at a disaster, and what the immediate needs are following one. The immediate need following any disaster is to first secure the situation. If you look on each side of yourself and each wall of the room you are in is blazing in fire or you stretch your neck as high as you can see, yet all you see is a giant wave about to nail you, could you imagine that you might be a bit preoccupied to worry if Greg has yummy food in his walk in freezer? BCnT, I've been through a few hurricanes with the USCG, myself. I was on the DART team out of Sector Lower Mississippi River/Memphis. I am aware that food is an issue, yet it is often represented as THE issue following a disaster. You can't lose sight of the big picture following any disaster. That isn't naysaying. It is keeping perspective.

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Bob Huntress

11-16-2012 20:40:44




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Bob Huntress, 11-16-2012 20:32:57  
Greg, if you are married to the numbers that you gave, however, you could hurl out a tiny amount of food at the crowd of 105,000. They will fight like animals for it killing each other. You would only have to shoot the ones left afterwards.



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Walt Davies

11-16-2012 19:32:24




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Personaly I think that you watch to much junk on TV.
Walt



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dave2

11-16-2012 19:26:49




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Goose, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Quoting Removed, click Modern View to see

afraid it'd just be one sided don"tcha think?? Doubt the ones headin out to steal the food would be doin much readin.... On second thought, there's some thumpers that'd switch some wording to justify thievery so's they wouldn't starve and could make it to church on sunday....



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Zachary Hoyt

11-16-2012 19:26:37




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
I doubt that most modern folks can walk at 5 MPH for a sustained period, and I certainly don't think most folks could walk 50 miles in a day. I couldn't without working up to it and training. It has been my experience that often what goes wrong in a situation is something I have not even thought of till it happens, so I have given up on trying to plan for all eventualities and I am trying to learn to be flexible and adapt as needed.
Zach

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Old Popper

11-17-2012 16:08:03




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Zachary Hoyt, 11-16-2012 19:26:37  
I walk 2 miles a day usually 6 days a week. If I walk on the inside track at the wellness center, I walk 2 mi in 35 minutes. If I walk the same 2 mi out on the rural gravel road, it takes around 50 min. Terrain makes all the difference.



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boomer1

11-16-2012 19:24:21




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Well look at it this way- half of them will have their hats on sideways or backwards so the sun will be in their eyes-won't know which way they are going-nothing to worry about-alot of them hold their guns sideways-there are no sights on the side of guns-no worry there-again alot of them will not want to walk that far because they might get their new Air Jordon JUMP HIGH-RUN FAST SNEAKERS that they stood in line for two days to get-Dirty-so I think you will be alright-One thirty shot clip should get the rest----GOOD LUCK-if you need backup-let me know!!!!!!!!

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Sid

11-17-2012 07:15:51




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to boomer1, 11-16-2012 19:24:21  
It seems you forgot the ones who gotta use one hand to hold their britches up.



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neverfear

11-17-2012 02:55:26




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to boomer1, 11-16-2012 19:24:21  
Wow! Best laugh I've had all week! Thanks! LOL!



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JayinNY

11-16-2012 19:58:13




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to boomer1, 11-16-2012 19:24:21  
I really like this post, lol,



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Greg1959

11-16-2012 19:23:54




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Goose, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Quoting Removed, click Modern View to see
:lol:



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barnE

11-16-2012 19:23:19




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
TheBible has all the answers. Read it.



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dave2

11-16-2012 19:13:27




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Goose, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
Quoting Removed, click Modern View to see

sure beats runnin and hidin all to hel!



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Fritz Maurer

11-16-2012 19:06:42




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
You're safe if you live in New York. Mayor Bloomberg says not to feed the hungry because there's no way to check the fat or sugar content.



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Greg K

11-16-2012 18:54:46




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 18:52:07  
First off I would doubt that 105,000 people are going to say" let's go to "Greg's place, I bet he has food!". lol It would be survival of the fittest and might equals right, kinda the law of the jungle.



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Greg1959

11-16-2012 19:04:58




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg K, 11-16-2012 18:54:46  
"It would be survival of the fittest and might equals right, kinda the law of the jungle."

Just because you can "beat me up"? Does that make it right?



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lloyd in sc

11-16-2012 20:22:38




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 19:04:58  
Had an old 1st Sgt who used to reply at the first groan with(G### D##### don't ask me is it right ask me is it real... Root hog or die They won't care...



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Greg K

11-16-2012 19:33:43




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 Re: What would you do? in reply to Greg1959, 11-16-2012 19:04:58  
Well I'm not too sure I could beat you up, I never could fight my way out of a wet paper bag! No that doesn't make it right by todays standards(and mine), but that has been the way for thousands of years and it would revert back to it given a chance.



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