weather guessers.....

Anonymous-0

Well-known Member
Any of you real farmers do your own weather predicting for hay harvest etc??? What do you use other than your gut? Old neighbor died almost 2 years ago... Folks would watch him and mow hay when he did regardless of the "forecast" from TV, radio, net, etc.... and never get wet (at least in the 10 years I saw it)..
Forecast for here was dry from Sat til Fri... Already vented on my Sat/Sun mowing.. Tedded yesterday, rained just enough to wet it. Tedded yesterday evening to rake/roll midday today. Rained last night.
Yesterday afternoon, forecast was dry til Fri. This morning forecast was 90% chance of a half inch... 2 hours later, 20% chance of a few drops and rain tomorrow afternoon......

With the hot coffee etc. lawsuits... It's a wonder that noone has tried suing the forecasters/TV stations for ruined harvest....

So, aside from the gut, what helps?
 
Being a real farmer helps...

A real farmer knows that the nutritional value of hay is highest at it's peak. Everyday after peak is a day that drops the value. Once the hay gets to the point that it is standing dead grass, it is no longer hay, but straw.


So, if you cut your hay when it is at it's peak, and it gets rained on, the rain will turn the hay a nasty color, but, as long as you can get it to dry out to the moisture proper for baling, it is still nutritionally value hay. I see classified ads all teh time that say, "hay for sale, never rained on." but, they don't tell you that it was baled in july or august. In my climate(and your climate will vary) the orchard grass becomes most nutritional at the 3rd week of may-1st week of june. So, you cut the hay when it is ripe and the forecast looks half decent. Give it 2 days of dry, including the day you cut it, check the moisture, then bale it. If it isn't dry enough, give it another day, then bale it. If it is borderline, go ahead and bale it, and salt the stack. salty hay is better than straw. Horses love it, as long as you give them plenty of water.


If it does get rained on, it turns an ugly color, but, it is still much better than baling too late.



as far as predicting the weather, there is not a good way to do it without knowing what teh jet stream is doing, and knowing where the high and low pressure areas are, and basically, you can only make as good of a guess as teh forecaster does.


Unless you have my knee. My knee hurts like sin if it is going to rain soon. I've had a few false alarms, but the humidity was 100% on those days.



You can almost feel rain coming, and you can watch for cloud movement, but, you are at teh mercy of it all.


I hope you get yoru hay put up, regardless if it looks rotted or not. rotted good hay is merely "turned silage." It's much more apetizing to the horses than old dead straw from grass.
 
This is a screwed up situation in this case... There only a couple of farmers (2 right now) in town with animals and a need for hay. They cut what/when they need and it is ready. The rest are crop farmers and grass is a kind of nuisance... So, they put it in a program and get paid to not cut it before a certain time and only once a year... That cut time is usually right at the end of prime. Things were a little slow this year, so it was about right. I was all set up to make hay on one guy's grass with an agreement from last year. Window opened, cut date came, and I touched base the day before to tell him I'd cut. He started himhawing about price, etc and couldn't come to an agreement. Missed out on that window. He finally came around and I'm playing catch up....
I'm smarter because of it and it won't happen again (that I cut so late) unless it's only weather related. The two that haven't sold thier souls are getting older and slimming down some and are going to let me take over a few acres they have rented as soon as thier contract runs out in the next couple years...
 
Got to say that I disagree with John_PA a little bit (repectfully, of course). It may do with our climate, where we occasionally get rain every day for 70 days, but only just enough to keep the hay damp. Around here it is better to cut late and get something, than cut with no weather window and lose it all. Half rotted hay is not turned silage at all, silage is an anaerobic (no oxygen) fermentation, not rot. Rot causes mold and mildew that can lead to health problems for horses, and does not increase the palatability at all. Salting hay does not actually dry it enough to help "cure" wet hay, it merely makes a rotted mess more palatable.

That said, hay getting rained on a bit does not hurt it, if it does not stay damp too long, and you can get it dry and out of the field. We get a lot of days where the guessers call for a 40-70% chances of rain, and it is limited to a few showers late in the afternoon, with 80F and sunny before and after the rain. Nobody else around here will cut because they call for rain, yes, mine gets rained on, but it only stays wet for less than an hour. Last two years I have been the first in my area to get dry hay up, so sell out fast to folks who are out from winter. It is a guessing game, but recording the weather every day and then looking at trends from years past has done us a lot of good, the weather seems to follow the same pattern most years, it might be a week or two off one way or the other, but once you figure out where you are at in the pattern, it helps.
 
OK.... Everyone take a moment and say
"UUUUUUUHHHHMMMMMMMMMM"....

I'm at work til 1900 but invented an errand that got me close enough to slip home... Stuff dried enough and one neighbor is raking. Just need 3 more hours without rain for the other neighbor to get off work and roll it..

save the prayers for something important, just wish me luck....
 
Find yourself a weather page & radar & take with a grain of salt. Otherwise, gut feeling, ain't much too it & no the size of the detector will not give you an advantage. ;v) As for the lawsuits? They'll be around when "act of God" & "God" are no longer honored. Which could be soon the way it feels in this hole... er country.

Mike
 
yesterday we had a pop up shower that gave about 1/2" rain. I had mowed hay that morning. Honestly, I have never seen pop up showers in our area that didn't pop up over the mountains and drift our way. In the last 2 weeks, every good t-storm missed us. Who knows, dry hay is just a risk. I make an educated decision based on the forecast, then it comes down to luck.
 
Nah, no need for kumbaya, Dave. I really do disagree respecfully, and was trying to give my opinion, no heated disagreement from me. I guess my biggest point to you would have been that getting rained on a bit does not hurt the hay much. There are a hundred different ways to make hay, I do it mine, and try to avoid telling others that the way they do it is wrong, because it works for them.
 
(quoted from post at 11:40:33 07/11/12) Nah, no need for kumbaya, Dave. I really do disagree respecfully, and was trying to give my opinion, no heated disagreement from me. I guess my biggest point to you would have been that getting rained on a bit does not hurt the hay much. There are a hundred different ways to make hay, I do it mine, and try to avoid telling others that the way they do it is wrong, because it works for them.

I meant meditate and wish the rain away from me.... Someone musta.... I got home, changed and headed out. Neighbor was rolling and the wife was raking up what was missed between trees. I grabbed the tractor and a wagon, she drove, I loaded the loose while the neighbor spit out the last roll. Field was narrow so he was good enough to drive over and spit them in the woods (good canopy). Got loaded and back to the house. Soon as I got under roof it let loose...... Have about 2 acres of scattered stuff that I'll do in small bales.

All that without choking the neighbor :lol:
 
I'm so glad I'm not in alaska! Do you have bad rain at peak of hay season? Some years we get rain everyday through the whole month of May, and couple weeks in june. Some years, we get rain every other day.

When I say "turned silage," I mean that it gets put up with a chopper and stored in the silo. Horses will founder on hay silage if you over feed, but they love it.

As far as salting the hay stack goes, Salt actually does help, not just make it taste better. Unless you have found really recent science that says I'm wrong, it's been common farm practice for as long as I know. I don't know if the haymaker's handbook has anything to say on it, I'll check. I'm pretty sure a quick online search will find info that supports me. Or, maybe you found others who disagree... Regardless, proprionic is better, but I assume Dave doesn't have an applicator set-up.

One of the biggest mistakes that people make with hay is to cut it at the wrong time of the day, or the just the wrong time. If hay gets cut while the dew is still on, it takes too long to dry out. If hay gets cut the day after a rain storm, the ground under the hay is too damp, and the hay will pick up the moisture and trap it as soon as you lay it down.

So, mid-afternoon to early evening on ground that was rained on... and, anytime after all the dew has completely burned off. I just watch the color of my front tractor tires. I can tell exactly what the moisture is like just by watching my tires. If they shine, it's way way too wet. if they are a dark clean black, it's still too wet. If they turn a bit to teh gray side of black, it is just right. If they get covered in dust, I think you better pray for it to rain! LOL

I was mowing hay this year at a certain point right before I cut myself off where the dust coming out of the haybine made it hard to see. The hay wasn't burned up, but the ground was just that dry. I was sitting at 20% moisture after 14 hours of dry time. That is way way too dry for my liking.




You can disagree with me anytime. I don't pretend to know everything, but I do it professionally.


I will say this, though...

I have heard so many myths and things that vets and horse trainers have said, where I can jump on g-oogle and disprove them in less than 15 seconds. Then, I get the crazy horse ladies who will open a bale up adn toss it in the air to see if dust comes out of it, telling me that all dust is mold spores. Truthfully, I don't think I have ever seen hay that doesn't get dusty after setting in the barn for a few months. I tell them to come back with a mold test kit, and then, I never see them again.
 
(quoted from post at 17:05:39 07/11/12) I'm so glad I'm not in alaska! Do you have bad rain at peak of hay season? Some years we get rain everyday through the whole month of May, and couple weeks in june. Some years, we get rain every other day.

When I say "turned silage," I mean that it gets put up with a chopper and stored in the silo. Horses will founder on hay silage if you over feed, but they love it.

As far as salting the hay stack goes, Salt actually does help, not just make it taste better. Unless you have found really recent science that says I'm wrong, it's been common farm practice for as long as I know. I don't know if the haymaker's handbook has anything to say on it, I'll check. I'm pretty sure a quick online search will find info that supports me. Or, maybe you found others who disagree... Regardless, proprionic is better, but I assume Dave doesn't have an applicator set-up.

One of the biggest mistakes that people make with hay is to cut it at the wrong time of the day, or the just the wrong time. If hay gets cut while the dew is still on, it takes too long to dry out. If hay gets cut the day after a rain storm, the ground under the hay is too damp, and the hay will pick up the moisture and trap it as soon as you lay it down.

So, mid-afternoon to early evening on ground that was rained on... and, anytime after all the dew has completely burned off. I just watch the color of my front tractor tires. I can tell exactly what the moisture is like just by watching my tires. If they shine, it's way way too wet. if they are a dark clean black, it's still too wet. If they turn a bit to teh gray side of black, it is just right. If they get covered in dust, I think you better pray for it to rain! LOL

I was mowing hay this year at a certain point right before I cut myself off where the dust coming out of the haybine made it hard to see. The hay wasn't burned up, but the ground was just that dry. I was sitting at 20% moisture after 14 hours of dry time. That is way way too dry for my liking.




You can disagree with me anytime. I don't pretend to know everything, but I do it professionally.


I will say this, though...

I have heard so many myths and things that vets and horse trainers have said, where I can jump on g-oogle and disprove them in less than 15 seconds. Then, I get the crazy horse ladies who will open a bale up adn toss it in the air to see if dust comes out of it, telling me that all dust is mold spores. Truthfully, I don't think I have ever seen hay that doesn't get dusty after setting in the barn for a few months. I tell them to come back with a mold test kit, and then, I never see them again.

We usually don`t get that bad of rain, Fairbanks only averages 10" per year, but it usually comes in just small enough quantities to keep hay farming interesting. It usually seems to be dry through June, with about 8-10 good days in July, and then we usually get a real nice stretch early in september, but then the dew comes off so late, and on so early, that dry-down is slow. Then some years are totally out of character, and Alaska is so big that what works in Fairbanks might not in Delta, or much less on the coast at Palmer. Then again, I`m selling timothy/brome squares for $12 a bale, and I`m on the cheap side.

I gotcha on the silage comment, I misunderstood. I`m not set up with a chopper yet, but I`m looking at getting one and some cows to diversify a bit, and put any wasted hay to use.

As for salting the stack, I`ve done it, learned the trick from my dad, and I think it has its place, but I honestly don`t think it will save hay that is too damp to keep. Where I have seen the best results is when I get clumps of vetch in the bales, they dry down muchslower, and can spoil a good portion of the bale. My reason for not think salt helps much is merely because of the weight of water in a damp bale (very noticeable) VS. the amount of salt usually applied and the amount of weight that the bales lose (not much). I guess pickiling the hay will keep it from spoiling, though.

As for cutting at the wrong time of day, I mostly agree with you. I wait for the dew to come off, other than that I try to mow as early as I can. When we are trying to get hay dry as fast as possible, often we have to cut when our tires are a bit damp rolling on the ground, but we leave it in a windrow, let the sun and wind dry the ground, and then ted it out, our ground is almost always moist so it works better than nothing. As for cutting too dry, never seen that, doubt I will!

We have our share of crazies up here, they don`t know a thing about hay or making it, but they certainly are willing to share the wives tales. I had quite a few leave before I started fibbing about what my fields are. Several of my fields are meadow foxtail, a good cool-season grass very similar to timothy in appearance, with no relation to barley foxtail, that everybody knows and hates. Nobody would buy my hay, until I told them all it was timothy, and not a one has known better yet.
 

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